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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 17th January 2025

bulk ships 000
Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
TMC Commercial Director 
 
Handysize Market Overview
•  US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC): The Handysize market experienced a notable decline as limited cargo availability gave charterers an upper hand. With fewer opportunities on the horizon, the sentiment remains bearish, and this trend is likely to continue into the coming weeks.
•  East Coast South America (ECSA): Despite a flurry of discussions and bid exchanges, rates have fallen to levels below those of the previous week. While the market is expected to remain active in the coming week, it remains uncertain whether this increased activity will translate into improved rates.
•  Continent: The market has faced additional losses, with a steady stream of Russian cargoes entering the fray. However, the lack of attractive premiums for ship owners has made it a risky proposition for many. As such, the market is expected to remain flat throughout the next week.
•  Mediterranean: Charterers have seized the opportunity provided by the weak market, driving rates further down. Given the current state of affairs, expectations for the upcoming week remain negative.
•  Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): Although there was a slight uptick in activity, it was insufficient to maintain previous levels. For the market to stabilize in the short term, a noticeable increase in demand is essential.
•  Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia / FEast): While the southern region showed a somewhat better outlook than the northern part, the overall sentiment remains negative. Both the Australian and NOPAC markets have remained quiet. As the pre-Chinese New Year period approaches, it is anticipated that the downward trend will persist.
 
 
Ultramax Market Overview
•  US Gulf (USG): The Ultramax market saw limited fixture volumes with subdued activity throughout the week. However, by the week’s end, some movement occurred as charterers with prompt onward cargoes capitalized on the current market conditions. Rates are expected to remain under pressure for the near future.
•  East Coast South America (ECSA): The market exhibited a two-tier structure. While there was healthy demand for prompt shipments, the lack of fresh cargoes for late January has caused a slowdown. However, the market is expected to remain firm heading into the next week.
•  Continent: Despite a positive trajectory in the Russian Baltic market, rates have continued to face downward pressure. Many owners have opted to ballast to other regions, and those who have remained in the area have had to accept lower rates. The sentiment for next week remains bearish.
•  Mediterranean: A lack of demand combined with an increase in supply has pushed rates to even lower levels. While there was a brief uptick in demand during the week, it wasn’t enough to reduce the surplus of tonnage. Outlooks for the coming week remain negative.
•  South Africa (SAFR): The South African market has remained under pressure, primarily due to slow activity in the region. This situation has been compounded by the struggling Indian market. With a long tonnage list for the second half of January, unless there is a substantial increase in demand, rates are expected to remain under pressure.
•  Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): This region faced another lackluster week characterized by a strong supply of vessels and limited demand. For the market to shift, there needs to be an uptick in demand.
•  Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia / FEast): The Southeast Asian and Far Eastern markets continued on the same trajectory as previous weeks, marked by a lack of activity and a subdued cargo flow in both the southern and northern regions. As we approach the Chinese New Year, it is expected that the outlook will remain relatively unchanged.
 
 
 
Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice
 

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