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ATLANTIC TAILWINDS, PACIFIC CROSS-CURRENTS: A STRATEGOS’ TAKE ON THE HANDY & ULTRAMAX SEASCAPE

Weekly Market Report & Predictions By: Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive
Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

Setting the Course: A Market Balancing Between Dynamo and Drift

The dry bulk sector sailed through another week of contrasts, with the Atlantic catching fresh breeze while the Pacific faced softer conditions and shifting currents. December’s usual end-of-voyage mentality has taken hold, as owners and charterers weigh urgent cover needs against the thinning enquiry typical of this time of year.

Across the Atlantic, owners stand on firmer ground—supported by improving forward cargo and a leaner tonnage list. Meanwhile, the Far East shows signs of defensive manoeuvring, with oversupply, holiday calendars and tactical chartering shaping behaviour.

In essence: the Atlantic is charting a stronger course, while the East is navigating more fragile tides.

REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE – A BASIN-BY-BASIN LOGBOOK

EAST COAST SOUTH AMERICA (ECSA)

Handysize — Lean Tonnage Keeps Owners Confident

Brazil remained a tight arena, with scarce prompt Handy candidates both north and south of the coast. Even as desks emptied for seasonal commitments, the fundamentals barely shifted. Owners held their line and sentiment remains firmly positive heading toward the 20 December window.

Ultramax — Firmer at First, Softer Beneath the Surface

Ultras opened the week with strength on North Brazil and WAFR stems, but ballast inflow soon began to dilute momentum. Bid–offer gaps widened, and many owners ended up meeting charterers halfway. Tight pockets remain, but the overall tone suggests a more balanced market developing into late December.

Outlook

Supportive into early/mid-December, followed by a more seasonal reset as ballasters reach the coast.

US GULF / US EAST COAST (USG / USEC)

Handysize — A Surge of Enquiry Pushes Rates Up

A decisive firming took hold as 10–15 December enquiry surged, tightening the forward tonnage list. Transatlantic and inter-Caribs fixtures traded at healthier levels, with charterers needing mid-month cover forced to pay premiums.

Ultramax — Sharp Swings and a Late-Week Charge

Mid-week volatility saw charterers attempt to press numbers down—only for fresh enquiry to reignite momentum. Mid-December tonnage evaporated quickly, pushing offers up. Fronthaul held steady around low-30s, but the expected inflow of Cont/Med ballasters later in the month may ease conditions.

Outlook

Firm for at least 7–10 days, softening only with late-December tonnage arrivals.

WEST COAST SOUTH AMERICA (WCSA)

Handysize — Rates Adrift in Slack Waters

A muted week saw Handies trade at last-done levels. With more vessels expected to accumulate by month’s end, downward pressure is mounting.

Ultramax — Salt Demand Backdraft Short-Lived

Salt COAs created a brief uptick, but with all December liftings now covered, supply is rising. The market appears poised for a slow fade into late December.

Outlook

Softening, save for isolated firmness where NOPAC demand intersects with WCSA availability.

NORTHERN EUROPE (CONTINENT / NWE)

Handysize — A Week of Equilibrium

A rare moment of balance: enquiry and tonnage closely matched, keeping rates stable. Minimal volatility and steady negotiation defined the week.

Ultramax — Pressure Mounting from Excess Tonnage

Reduced enquiry and a growing open list nudged the region into softer waters. Scrap demand remains insufficient to stabilise values, and with more ballasters heading west, further easing seems likely.

Outlook

Handies stable; Ultras gently declining unless a fresh wave of grains or scrap emerges.

MEDITERRANEAN

Handysize — Fragmented and Softening

The Med remains a tale of two seas.

Black Sea & East Med: Oversupplied, thin enquiry, owners chasing cargo.

West Med: Holding slightly firmer with gypsum, cement and mixed grains offering glimmers of support.

The basin’s overall ethos, however, remains weak.

Ultramax — East Weak, West More Steady

Prompt stems in the EMed dwindled while Russian-acceptable ships lengthened lists. Several owners edged westward, where WMed activity and tighter supply offered somewhat steadier ground.

Outlook

Handies: Soft
Ultras: Mixed to soft, with WMed offering the only meaningful support.

MIDDLE EAST GULF / INDIA (MEG / INDIA)

Handysize — Cooling After Last Week’s Heat

After a vigorous prior week, the pace moderated. Fundamentals remain sound, but market participants sense a potential slowdown as holiday logistics gather pace.

Ultramax — Ore Flows Keep the Compass Steady

ECI–China ore demand continues to inject strength, and Indian Ocean tightness offers owners alternatives beyond the softer AG arena. SAFR and SE Asia remain viable escape routes, preserving a stable undertone.

Outlook

Sideways with pockets of firmness, but exposed to year-end softening if enquiry thins.

SOUTHEAST ASIA / FAR EAST (SE ASIA / FE)

Handysize — Two Hemispheres, Two Stories

North Asia: Steady on period and NOPAC despite muted cargo flow.

Southeast Asia: After an early-week spike, the market cooled sharply as liquidity faded.

Australia: Slightly weaker as coastal tonnage soaked up the available demand.

Ultramax — A Sudden Spike, Then Drift

Southern markets surged early in the week, only to lose wind just as quickly. Backhaul routes remain under heavy pressure, with owners undercutting each other to escape before holiday slowdowns.

Outlook

Soft to neutral, with the balance leaning toward softer conditions as December unfolds.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa continues to shine as a rare firm anchor east of the Atlantic. Tonnage remains tight—barely a dozen ships—and strong links to ECSA and the Indian Ocean maintain healthy demand. Modern Ultras fixing in the low 20s + BB reaffirm owners’ solid negotiating stance.

Outlook

Firm and steady, with no immediate signs of easing.

WEEK-AHEAD NAVIGATION – THE 7-DAY COMPASS

USG/USEC: Firm; charterers will continue paying for mid-Dec cover.

ECSA: Early firmness; gradual easing after 20 Dec as ballast inflow grows.

NWE: Flat for Handies; Ultras softening.

Mediterranean: Handies soft; Ultras mixed with WMed providing the only resistance.

MEG/India: Sideways but steady; vulnerable late-month.

SE Asia / FE: Downtrend risk; backhaul especially pressured.

WCSA: Softening ahead.

South Africa: Firm across the board.

Captain’s Closing Log

As 2025’s final pages turn, the market shifts from pure freight fundamentals into a complex dance of chronos, positioning, and pre-holiday krisis-management. Those who read these undercurrents early—adjusting ballast plans, negotiating with precision, and navigating commercial timing with a strategist’s ethos—are poised to secure the most advantageous outcomes.

This is the moment for calculated moves, not reactive ones; for collaborative partnerships that understand the subtle tides shaping global tonnage. The companies that embrace this approach will sail into 2026 with a competitive edge rather than simply drifting with the current.

Disclaimer

This report is intended for informational and market-context purposes only. It does not constitute investment or financial advice. Conditions may change without notice, and independent judgement is advised.