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Corrections for the dry bulk cargo market
- Λεπτομέρειες
- Δημοσιεύτηκε στις Δευτέρα, 13 Ιανουαρίου 2025 07:31
Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Director TMC MARITIME CO.
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant
The dry bulk cargo market experienced downward corrections, with Capes only holding back the decline and the remaining sizes retreating with single-digit losses.
On the contrary, the smaller sizes moved downward. In detail, Capes rose by 5.3%, Kamsarmaxes -8.37%, Ultramaxes (63) -7.36% and Handies -7.48%, compared to the previous week. Thus, the BDI fell by 24 credits , compared to the previous week and closed at 1048 credits on Friday, January 10.
Let's see, in more detail, how the dry bulk cargo market moved last week by vessel size, starting with the CAPEs. In Asia, the market faced intense pressure from the oversupply of vessels and the reduced activity of miners. Thus, the main C5 China-Australia route was constantly losing ground day by day. The index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed on Friday at $6.25/tn.
In the Atlantic Basin, the south was the star with Brazil and West C. Africa recording gains due to reduced vessel’s supply and improved activity. In contrast, in the north, the week started on a negative note but closed positively at the end of the week. Friday’s indexes reached up to $18.16/tn for trips from Brazil to China (for the C3 route), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $31.81 K/day (for the C9 route) and Transatlantic round trips at $16.86K/day (for the C8 route).
Regarding Kamsarmaxes, in the Atlantic basin and especially in the north, the market may have presented a satisfactory flow of cargo, minerals and grains, but it was not enough to absorb all the volume of vessels that had gathered in the previous period. In the south, charterers seemed to maintain the upper hand in the market by taking advantage of the large number of vessels moving from Asia. Indicatively, rates for trips from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) to the Far East reached up to $ 7-9K/day (delivery Asia), from Continent to Asia at $ 15-17K/day (delivery in Continent ) and the round Transatlantic trips at $ 8.5-10.5K/day (delivery in Gibraltar).
On the other hand, in Asia the north presented a better picture than the south due to the support from the North Pacific. In the south the few closures that took place were at low levels that could not even cover the operating costs of the vessels . The rates for round trips in Indonesia-Far East moved to $ 3-5K / day (Far East delivery).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes, in Southeast Asia the market fell due to the increase in vessels moving from East India and the reduced number of coal cargoes from Indonesia and Australia that could not absorb all these vessels. The rates of UMXs for trips between SE Asia and Far East went to 6.5-8K / day. Further north, in the Far East the market was more active with increased volume of closures but at lower numbers due to the strong supply of vessels. However, it should be noted that there was more stability compared to the previous period. UMXs rates for round trips in the North Pacific (NOPAC) moved at $ 8-9.5K/day, for trips to W. C. India at $ 9.5-11K/day and return trips in the Atlantic Basin (BH) at $ 7.5-9K/day.
In the Middle East Gulf and the West C. India the market proceeded with a new recession. There may have been a small increase in activity but the concentration of capacity in the previous days led to a new fall in rates. A positive point is the limited number of vessels in southern Africa. Rates for UMXs to the Far East ranged between $9-10.5K/day (from Middle East gulf Gulf (MEG) – West C. Indies (WCI)), for short trips between Middle East Gulf – West C. India from $8-9.5K/day and trips to the Atlantic Basin from $5-6.5K/day.
The Atlantic Basin and especially the American Gulf were more active with new cargoes to all routes. However, the large number of available vessels left no room for improvement in rates. Transatlantic rates for UMXs reached up to $18.5-20K/day and to Asia from $18-19.5K/day. The ECSA region continued to move upwards as the shortage of vessels drove rates to higher levels. SMXs rates for trips to SE Asia-China ranged from $19.5-21K/day and for Transatlantic trips (Mediterranean/Continent) from $18-19.5K/day.
Continent remained sluggish with some sporadic movements. Thus, supply continued to exceed demand. UMXs’ rates for round-local trips moved at $11.5-13K/day, for SCRAP trips to the Mediterranean at $11.5-13K/day and to Asia at $14.5-16K/day. The Mediterranean continued to be under pressure with limited cargo. Thus, several shipowners considered moving to other regions. Indicatively, it is reported that a UMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $ 13-14.5K/day (delivery Canakkale), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $ 6-7.5K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 7.5-9K/day (excluding war zones).
In the Handies market, in Continent the market progressed downwards due to excess capacity, since a greater increase in cargo is required in order to limit capacity in the region. Rates for the largest vessels in the category, for circular trips, reached $ 6-7.5K/day, to the Mediterranean with scrap cargo at $ 6-7.5K/day and for Transatlantic trips at $ 5-6.5K/day.
The Mediterranean continued to be under pressure due to reduced demand while the supply of vessels remained strong. The rates of larger vessels (over 36K DWT) for trips within the Mediterranean were at $5.5-7K/day (delivery in Canakkale), to Continent at $4.5-6K/day (delivery in Canakkale), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $4.5-6K/day (delivery in Canakkale) and to Asia at $9-10.5K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin , in the American Gulf, the market showed considerable mobility. Demand showed a slight increase but the oversupply of vessels kept the rates at low levels. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the category for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged at $ 10.5-12K/day and to Asia at $ 12.5-14K/day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA) region showed significant improvements with increased activity while the supplied capacity remained at low levels. However, according to the data so far, a decline in demand is expected towards the end of the month. Thus, the rates of the largest vessels from the ECSA region for Transatlantic trips (Continent -Mediterranean) ranged between $ 13-14.5K/day and to Asia at $ 15-16.5K/day.
In Asia, the market slowed down in view of the Chinese New Year. In Southeast Asia, cargo flows were limited and Australia did not offer attractive alternatives. And in the north the picture is no different, with northern China and the northern Pacific being calm. Further west in the Middle East Gulf and in W. C. India, the imbalance between supply and demand in favor of the former drove your rates to lower levels. Rates for the largest vessels in the category for round trips in the Far East and NOPAC closed at $ 7.5-9K / day, from SE Asia to China at $ 7.5-9K / day and from West C. India to China at $ 6.5-8K / day.
Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice