News in English

Dry bulk market: Α fragile balance in a shifting global landscape

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive
& TMC Shipping Commercial Director
And Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

Steadying the Course Amid Crosswinds
The dry bulk market entered October on a cautiously stable footing, reflecting mixed signals across vessel sizes and trading regions. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 35 points over the week, closing at 1,936 on Friday, October 10th — a modest gain, yet symbolically important in a market seeking clear direction.
While minor upticks were noted in Capesize, Panamax, and Handysize segments, the Ultramax sector faced slight downward pressure. Geopolitical shifts, notably China’s latest tariff policy on U.S. goods, added fresh complexity, testing the resilience of global trade flows and vessel demand patterns.
Diverging Paths by Vessel Size and Region
Capesize: Two Speeds, One Market
Capesizes presented a bifurcated performance. In the Pacific, robust demand from miners supported freight rates throughout the week, pushing Australia–China (C5) levels to $9.63/ton. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, initial optimism faded as the week progressed — primarily due to China’s tariff announcement, which dampened sentiment and activity.
Brazil and West Africa remained sluggish, weighed down by reduced cargo flows. On Friday, the Brazil–China route (C3) stood at $23.56/ton. Transatlantic round voyages closed at $21,690/day (C8), while rates from Europe to Asia (C9) reached $42,750/day, highlighting the strong premium for eastbound business.
Panamax/Kamsarmax: Rebound with Caution
The Atlantic began the week quietly but picked up momentum mid-week as fresh cargoes entered the market. Nonetheless, uncertainty over Chinese trade policy tempered optimism. Kamsarmaxes sailing from East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Far East earned between $29,000 and $31,000/day, while Europe-to-Asia rates ranged from $23,000 to $25,000/day. Transatlantic round trips hovered around $16,000–18,000/day.
In Asia, the week opened with strength driven by Northern Pacific activity, followed by increased Australian exports. Although Chinese and Korean holidays initially subdued momentum, their return mid-week reinvigorated the market. Southeast Asia–Far East round voyages fetched $15,500–17,500/day.
Ultramaxes/Supramaxes: Mixed Signals Across the Map
Ultramax/Supramax segments saw a patchwork of performances. Southeast Asia experienced minor fluctuations, while Australia stood out with stronger numbers. Activity surged in the Far East post-Golden Week, with demand emerging for westbound cargoes to the Med and Europe. NOPAC round voyages paid $14,500–16,000/day, with India-bound rates at $15,500–17,000/day. Backhauls to the Atlantic ranged between $13,500–15,000/day.
The Middle East Gulf and West India markets came under pressure from an oversupply of tonnage and tepid demand, though a stronger South Africa helped draw away some vessels. Eastbound rates from the Arabian Gulf and West Coast India stood at $12,500–14,000/day, while intra-regional trips paid up to $15,500/day. Atlantic-bound voyages dropped to $10,000–11,500/day.
In the Atlantic, the U.S. Gulf softened due to the slowdown in Chinese activity during the Golden Week. However, tight vessel supply helped owners limit losses. Rates from the U.S. Gulf to Asia reached $29,500–31,000/day, while transatlantic trips paid as much as $33,000/day.
Europe saw increased activity, especially from West Med, where limited tonnage and fresh cargoes gave owners an edge. Ultramax trips to Asia were fixed at $27,500–29,000/day, while scrap cargoes from Europe to the Med paid up to $33,000/day. Intra-Med voyages ranged between $16,500–18,000/day, excluding war zones.
Handysize: Stable but Not Spectacular
The European Handysize market opened cautiously, with a noticeable gap between charterers and owners. However, negotiations gradually converged, leading to increased fixtures. Large Handies earned $17,000–18,500/day for round voyages, up to $22,500/day for scrap trades to the Med, and $14,500–16,000/day on transatlantic trips.
The Mediterranean retained momentum, supported by a steady flow of cargo. While the East Med was quieter, the overall regional balance remained healthy, partly thanks to ship repositioning towards the Atlantic. Rates for intra-Med trades stood at $13,000–14,500/day, while trips to Asia paid around $15,500–17,000/day.
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Gulf started slowly but improved mid-week with fresh demand. Large Handies achieved $24,000–25,500/day for transatlantic trades and $21,500–23,000/day for Asia-bound voyages.
The ECSA market held steady, as rising vessel supply from the West Med was offset by sufficient cargo volumes. Rates to Europe and the Med ranged from $22,000–23,500/day, while Asia-bound trips paid around $19,500–21,000/day.
In Asia, the North remained quiet, while Southeast Asian players adopted a wait-and-see approach. The Indian subcontinent, particularly the West Coast, saw the sharpest corrections, with daily rates falling into four-digit territory. Only Atlantic-bound trades managed to stay above the $10,000/day threshold.
Stability Within Reach – For Now
The dry bulk sector remains cautiously optimistic. While macroeconomic and geopolitical risks persist, the current balance of supply and demand — though fragile — continues to support a relatively steady freight environment.
Much depends on China’s commodity appetite, seasonal trends in grain and coal flows, and evolving regulatory developments. Volatility may remain a feature of this market, but as of now, stability appears achievable — even if it must be earned voyage by voyage.

Disclaimer
This report is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or solicitation. The views and data presented herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any decisions or actions taken based on this report are the sole responsibility of the reade