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The tanker market closes 2025 with a degree of structural tightness

The tanker market closes 2025 with a degree of structural tightness that cannot be captured simply by looking at headline fleet numbers. The global tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt now stands at 7,861 vessels, carrying a combined 709 million dwt, with an average age of 13.7 years. What matters, however, is the distribution: 2,226 ships—almost 28% of the fleet—sit in the 16–20-year bracket, while nearly 1,000 tankers are already over 21 years old. The market operates with an ageing backbone just as trade disruptions, sanctions, and long-haul demand push utilisation higher. This underlying fragility met a year of strengthening fundamentals. After a volatile start to 2025, crude and product tankers gained momentum as fleet growth remained minimal. Sectors like MR2 and Aframax/LR2 carried the bulk of new deliveries, but these additions were small relative to structural removals. Only a handful of large crude carriers entered the fleet this year, while a noticeable share of tonnage drifted into sanctioned or "dark" operations. These vessels—roughly 1,000 now across all tanker types—rarely return to conventional trades. They operate inefficiently, often on multipoint voyages or as quasi-storage units, reducing the effective supply of regulated tonnage far below the theoretical fleet size.

As this was unfolding, tonne-mile demand surged. China's crude imports rose around 5% year-on-year, with a clear shift toward longer-haul Atlantic, Latin American and U.S. Gulf barrels. Refinery runs remained high, restocking picked up in the second half, and the change of U.S. administration revived expectations of new supply growth from American producers. The market priced in stronger U.S. export volumes, supporting long-haul crude movements throughout Q4.

At the same time, orderbook dynamics reveal the beginning of a multi-year renewal cycle rather than a speculative expansion. The global tanker orderbook now includes 1,238 ships, representing 15.7% of the fleet in units and 16.7% in DWT—substantially higher than the 13.7% ratio seen a year ago. Suezmaxes show the highest orderbook-to-fleet ratio (in terms of DWT) at 20.3%, followed closely by Small Tankers at 19.4%, VLCC at 16.7% and Aframax/LR2 at 16.5%. Yet the pressure comes not from the orderbook itself, but from ageing. In 2026 alone, around 580 tankers will exceed 25 years of age, and by 2028 almost 1,030 vessels will cross this threshold, while only about 1,200 newbuildings are expected across the same period. The implication is straightforward: net capacity growth will struggle to keep pace with natural attrition. Segments such as Handy/MR1 and Panamax/LR1 show particularly steep ageing curves, with these fleets projected to have more than half of their units above 21 years by 2029.

Macro conditions reinforce this tightness. Early-2026 oil balances point toward a significant production surplus that may push Brent into the mid-50s to low-60s range, historically a setup that encourages floating storage and opportunistic buying. If the IEA's projection of a multi-million-barrel-per-day surplus materialises, restocking and long-haul procurement should remain strong, lifting tonne-mile demand into the new year.

Thus, despite a rising orderbook and a wave of 2026 deliveries ahead, the tanker market enters the new year structurally constrained. Ageing fleets, shadow-tonnage inefficiencies and strong long-haul demand continue to outweigh theoretical increases in supply. For another year, the market will be shaped less by how many ships exist—and more by how few are truly available.

Dry S&P Activity:

Activity this week was spread almost across all the sizes, from Newcastlemax down to the Handysize segments.

Starting from the top end, the scrubber-fitted Newcastlemax "ATLANTIC LION" - 209K/2020 SWS was reported sold for USD 73.5 mills to undisclosed buyers. Also in the large sizes, Chinese buyers acquired the "CAPE MERLIN" - 206K/2005 Imabari for USD 23.5 mills. Down to the Capesize, the "DENSA SHARK" - 179,227/2012 HHI was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 32.5 mills, basis TC attached on 101% BCI180 till June 2026.

In the Post Panamax/Kamsarmax segment, the "OCEAN VENUS" - 93K/2010 Jiangsu Jinling changed hands for USD 11.5 mills, while the "THERESA HAINAN" - 82K/2013 Sainty Shipbuilding was sold at low/mid USD 16 mills. On Panamax sector, Greek buyers acquired the "SINOKOR SUNRISE" - 77,731/2011 Jiangsu Eastern for USD 12.5 mills. The "BASEL STAR" - 78,821/2009 Sanoyas fetched USD 13.2 mills, while the "ASSOS" - 76,529/2009 Shin Kasado was sold for USD 14 mills, both to undisclosed interests.

In the the Ultramaxa/Supramax segment, Greek buyers took the "IVS WINDSOR" - 60K/2016 Oshima for USD 25.8 mills. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers acquired the "CAPTAIN KARAM" - 56K/2006 Mitsui for USD 11.25 mills. Finally, the handy "APHRODITE M" - 34K/2011 SPP was sold for USD 12.5 mills.

Tanker S&P Activity:

Tanker S&P activity this week focused on the mid-size crude and product segments, with a limited number of transactions reported.

On the Suezmax sector, the "LOS ANGELES SPIRIT" – 159K/2007 Hyundai Samho was reported sold for mid USD 30's to undisclosed buyers. Moving to the LR2 segment, the "TORM MAREN" – 110K/2008 Dalian changed hands for USD 29 mills, with buyers remaining undisclosed. In the MR2 sector, two sister vessels, the "SEAWAYS OLIVE" – 50K/2008 HMD and the "SEAWAYS STAR" – 50K/2008 HMD, were both reported sold at region USD 16 mills.

Finally, in the small tanker segment, Chinese buyers acquired the "GINGA KITE" – 20K/2001 Shin Kurushima for high USD 6 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.