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Handysize & Ultramax Markets: Navigating a Summer of Contrasts | Market Update - July 4th, 2025

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant & Chartering Executive
Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

As we move into the heart of summer 2025, the Handysize and Ultramax sectors are delivering an interesting mix of opportunities and challenges.

Some regions are showing resilience with solid growth, while others continue to wrestle with oversupply and a lack of demand. This week’s market update dives into the most dynamic shifts, providing you with key insights and short-term predictions you won't want to miss.

Handysize Market: Navigating Choppy Waters

• US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC):
  The market here is holding steady, balancing increased vessel availability with consistent cargo flow. Rates are firm for now, but the arrival of ballasters could create some pressure. Expect a bit of turbulence in the coming weeks.
• East Coast South America (ECSA):
  The ECSA market is on fire! A surge in activity across both northern and southern regions is driving rates up across all directions. The positive sentiment is expected to continue into next week, even with the arrival of ballasters.
• Northern Europe (Continent/NWE):
  A quiet week in Northern Europe due to industry events in Piraeus. Demand remains sluggish while supply continues to outpace it. Unless there’s a shift in the coming days, things look relatively stagnant.
• Mediterranean:
  The Mediterranean market is struggling with a supply surplus, which is keeping rates low. In the West, ballasters are moving out to ECSA and Northern Europe, while the East is seeing limited activity from the Black Sea. Another slow week is expected unless we see a demand uptick.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India):
  The MEG and Indian markets are holding steady, with no significant changes in rates or demand. Balance is expected to continue for the time being.
• Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE):
  Tighter tonnage and strong demand, especially for Aussie and PG-bound cargoes, are keeping the market firm. The outlook for this region remains positive with rates expected to stay strong.

Ultramax Market: Riding the Waves of Uncertainty

• US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC):
  While Transatlantic rates have seen improvement, trips to Asia are still flat. The 4th of July holiday slowed the momentum, and a soft start is expected next week. Keep an eye on how this develops post-holiday.
• East Coast South America (ECSA):
  The Ultramax market in ECSA is buzzing! Rates are climbing on both Transatlantic and Front Haul routes due to a tight tonnage list. This bullish sentiment is likely to persist for the near future.
• Northern Europe (Continent/NWE):
  Optimism is creeping in with the support of cargoes like scrap, petcoke, and fertilizers. With mid-July approaching and tonnage availability shrinking, things are looking up.
• Mediterranean:
  The Mediterranean market is split. The West is strong, benefiting from the ECSA market’s strength, while the East remains pressured by a lack of fresh cargoes. This divergence will likely continue for the time being.
• South Africa:
  A steady, firm tone persists in South Africa with signs of strengthening. Few ballasters are moving to the region, which suggests the upward trend will likely continue into next week.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India):
  The market here remains flat, with demand staying subdued. However, rates remain steady thanks to a reduced tonnage list. We expect little to no changes in the near future.
• Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE):
  The southern market in Southeast Asia is getting a boost from Indonesian coal cargoes, but the northern market remains quieter, propped up only by WCCA and backhaul business. Period interest could provide the lift it needs in the coming week.

In Conclusion: A Tale of Two Markets

The Handysize and Ultramax markets are experiencing a summer of contrasts. In some regions, solid cargo demand and tight tonnage are creating positive momentum. In others, the balance of supply and demand continues to keep rates under pressure. As always, we’re keeping a close eye on the evolving market trends and will provide timely updates to ensure you stay ahead of the curve in this fast-moving industry.