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The Market Finds Its Bearings

Ultramax & Handysize — Week Ending 18 September 2026

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director

Strategic Brief  — A Firmer Tide

The dry-bulk market ended the week on a firmer tack. The Atlantic is leading the turn, with healthier cargo volumes, tighter prompt tonnage and stronger fronthaul and transatlantic demand. The Pacific is also gaining momentum, led by coal, clinker and backhaul requirements. Owners are increasingly holding their ground, while charterers are bidding harder for prompt ships.

The picture is not uniformly tight. Southeast Asia remains balanced, and the Far East may soften temporarily as Japan and China enter holidays. Higher bunkers and Middle East–Red Sea uncertainty are nevertheless supporting rates and raising the premium for willing tonnage. The near-term outlook is therefore constructive, but selective: supply and positioning, rather than demand alone, will determine the next leg.

South Atlantic — The Atlantic Awakens

Ultramax

The South Atlantic strengthened as cargo built from both north and south. A longer stem list and more balanced tonnage supported both fronthaul and transatlantic business, while owners became less willing to move from their ideas. West Africa remained balanced.

Handysize

ECSA continued higher across northern and southern routes, driven by strong fronthaul and transatlantic activity and high WCSA fixtures. Rising bunkers and very limited local tonnage encouraged owners to seek DOP employment and avoid ballast exposure. Firmer US Gulf and WCSA markets are also drawing ballasters away from ECSA.

North Brazil was the week’s notable change. After several weeks of lagging the South and creating a two-tier market, fresh cargo and scarce tonnage brought it broadly into line with southern levels.

US Gulf — A Strong Current

Ultramax

After last week’s cargo clear-out, the US Gulf opened softly but regained its footing through a steady flow of transatlantic and fronthaul stems and firm fixing. The US East Coast remained well supported, limiting the need for ballast. The tonnage count declined through the week but remains healthy. The market feels firm, with rates stable, while paper continues to point towards a strong year-end.

Handysize

The US Gulf Handy market moved quickly higher. Demand strengthened in all directions while supply failed to keep pace, tightening September laycans sharply. Transatlantic fixtures reached the mid/high USD 20,000s, a substantial rise from only weeks ago. Limited prompt tonnage remains the central driver.

West Coast South America — Waiting for the Wind

Ultramax

WCSA was quiet, with owners holding back for better levels. Many WCCA vessels still favour North Pacific employment, although the WCSA tonnage list is tightening. This should give a clearer signal next week. Chilean holidays also restrained activity.

Handysize

Low coastal activity encouraged Handies to fix via ECSA, where healthy ECSA/WCSA rates compensate for ballast. Period appetite remained solid, with fixtures reportedly in the high USD 10,000s. Otherwise, the market was quiet.

Continent — Prompt Tonnage Takes Command

Ultramax

The Continent opened quietly but tightened as cargo grew, particularly for end-September dates. Prompt availability remains the critical variable, with few ships able to cover the main window. Some tonnage appeared late in the week, but much was operator-controlled and therefore had limited effect on the open market. The balance remains supportive.

Handysize

The week began exceptionally strongly, with very limited supply and scrap fixtures carrying a “3” in front, pushing ideas sharply higher. Momentum then cooled. Rates remain strong, but some extreme fixtures appear exceptional rather than representative of a wholesale market revaluation.

Tonnage remains relatively tight, with no immediate downward pressure. The market appears to have found a temporary floor and closed with levels stabilising after the early-week surge.

Mediterranean & Black Sea — A More Secure Berth

Ultramax

A squeeze in available tonnage against healthy demand lifted Mediterranean fixing levels. Competition from other regions for Mediterranean ships added further upward pressure. Sentiment remains positive.

Handysize

Backhaul business opened the week strongly, lifting rates and owner confidence. Continent activity then increased, with fixtures reported with a “3” in front, encouraging owners to consider ballast towards the Continent. Black Sea demand subsequently strengthened. After a volatile week, the market found firmer ground and closed broadly flat.

Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa — Risk Carries a Premium

Ultramax

The Indian Ocean opened mixed but supported by higher bunkers and continuing uncertainty around the Middle East Gulf and Red Sea. MEG/WCI remains active. As the WCI monsoon eases, limestone discharge should improve, supporting tonnage demand. At the same time, heightened Red Sea tension is tightening availability for Saudi calls and Gulf of Aden passages, with willing owners seeking premiums.

A Supramax from Fujairah fixed at high USD 10,000s DOP for the Maldives. A Pakistan Supramax was considering mid/high USD 10,000s APS Salalah for gypsum to ECI, with a premium requested for WCI redelivery.

WCI open tonnage continues to ballast towards South Africa, while tight-cancelling cargo pays up for prompt ships. Backhauls were stronger than fronthaul; Salalah was quiet; period demand returned. Sentiment remains positive and rates continue to firm.

ECI performed better, supported by coastal and Southeast Asian demand. A well-described Ultramax achieved low USD 20,000s DOP ECI for an ECI–WCI coastal trip, while a Supramax was fixed on subjects at low USD 10,000s for ECI–China.

South Africa became more active as cargo built and prompt tonnage tightened. Manganese ore and coal enquiries, particularly for Pakistan, supported demand, with several cargoes covered and further manganese tenders in the market. About 12 ships were open on the coast, including approximately 8 potential Indian ballasters. End-September and early-October demand remains firm, with owners increasingly selective and prompt ships attracting greater charterer attention.

Handysize

Handysize demand was led by inbound Indian steel cargoes into Europe and the US Gulf. Box-shaped ships remained sought after, while fronthaul was limited. Supply and demand were broadly balanced, although rates continued higher.

Far East & Southeast Asia — The Pacific Builds Pressure

Ultramax

The Pacific ended strongly. Northern backhaul rates firmed while southern charterers raised bids for prompt ships. An Ultramax open CJK was heard fixed at USD 15,500 for 70 days, USD 22,500 DOP via Vietnam, for the US Gulf. Another Ultramax open Shanhaiguan ex-drydock was reported on subjects at USD 17,000.

Mediterranean backhaul remained strong, with an Ultramax open Jingtang holding USD 25,000 bid against USD 27,500 offer, alongside fresh USD 22,000–25,000 bids for Turkey and Mediterranean steel. West Africa backhaul remained wide, with USD 23,500–26,000 offers against USD 21,000 DOP Tianjin bids.

North China slag lifted bids to USD 25,000 for Bangladesh and USD 24,500 for Fujairah. In the South, coal and a surging clinker market absorbed prompt capacity. Period interest improved, including an Ultramax open South China reportedly on subjects at USD 22,000 for 6–8 months. A Vietnam Supramax was heard fixed at USD 23,000 to Sri Lanka.

Coal bids continued higher. An Ultramax received a USD 25,000 DOP Philippines bid for East Kalimantan–WCI, while Meulaboh–WCI bids approached USD 19,000 DOP ECI, against owners seeking the high USD 20,000s to USD 30,000s for full India. Owner leverage should keep near-term Pacific rates intact.

Far East Handysize — Calm Before the Holiday

The Far East Handy market remained broadly flat. Japanese and Chinese holidays encouraged some early fixing and supported levels. Large Handies were in the USD 18,000s for trips south, smaller units in the USD 16,000s. A temporary dip over the next one to two weeks is possible as Far East participants step ashore for the holidays.

WCI activity remains present, with owners seeking mid USD 20,000s and charterers targeting low USD 20,000s. The market is around USD 23,000–24,000, alternatively USD 18,000 basis redelivery Penang.

Backhaul is providing the strongest support, with requirements into the Continent/Mediterranean, US Gulf and WCCA. Larger ships are seeking levels beginning with USD 20,000 for Continent/Mediterranean employment.

Period remains steady. Modern eco large Handies attract demand, with 5–7 months at USD 18,000–19,000 under discussion, against charterer indications around USD 17,000 day for a good large Handy.

Southeast Asia & Australia — Balanced Waters

Southeast Asia remains broadly balanced and flat. Smaller Handies are around USD 13,000–14,000  for Pacific round voyages. For 32,000-dwt Handies, Indonesia–Southeast Asia and Indonesia–Far East rounds are indicated at USD 13,500–14,500 basis DOP Singapore.

Larger Handies remain around USD 18,000–19,000  basis Singapore for Australia rounds, while coastal business commands the low USD 20,000s. Early-October repositioning cargoes into Australia/New Zealand and the US West Coast could support prompt tonnage. Larger Handies are around USD 18,500–19,000  for spot/legs, with suitable ships achieving more in period.

Loggers and quality large eco-Handies continue to attract interest, with legs/period around USD 19,000–20,000  for large eco handies. Availability is manageable, but quality prompt tonnage could tighten if activity rises. For now, the market remains flat and balanced, with sufficient supply; early-October cargoes provide the potential upside.

Period — The Forward Tide Holds

Atlantic Ultramax period continues its bullish run, particularly short and medium term. Charterers remain reluctant to commit for one year, while owners now indicate low-to-mid USD 20,000s  sub delivery. Short-to-medium period is trading in the mid USD 20,000s basis Mediterranean delivery.

Atlantic Handysize period is similarly firm, with the US Gulf a principal driver. One-year commitments remain limited, while short period trades in the high USD 10,000s.

On spot, US Gulf has gained approximately USD 5,000 week-on-week, taking average Atlantic T/C to USD 17,534 , against USD 17,731  in the Pacific. The narrowing gap, together with positive sentiment, should keep period values supported.

Market Pulse Finale

The market moves into the new week on a constructive but uneven trajectory. The Atlantic remains the clearest engine of momentum, driven by rising cargo flow and tightening prompt supply, while South Africa, the Indian Ocean and both Pacific basins continue to show supportive fundamentals.

The upside risk lies in further erosion of prompt tonnage against steady coal, clinker, steel and fronthaul demand. Higher bunkers and Red Sea exposure are reinforcing owners’ leverage and the premium attached to willing ships.

The counterbalance comes from the Far East holiday slowdown and adequate supply in Southeast Asia. Exceptional Continent and Handysize fixtures should be viewed selectively rather than treated as automatic benchmarks.

The strategic lever is disciplined positioning. Prompt, well‑placed vessels retain negotiating strength; balanced markets demand optionality; forward and period cover must be weighed against ballast economics, regional alternatives and Atlantic–Pacific exposure. In this environment, commercial agility outweighs any broad directional call.

For a company, the opportunity is to stay ahead of the tonnage flow: capture the stronger prompt markets where fundamentals justify it, preserve flexibility elsewhere, and use period employment selectively where risk‑adjusted returns make sense. This market rewards observation, timing and execution.

The broader tide remains supportive. If cargo momentum persists and prompt availability continues to tighten, rates should stay firm across the Atlantic and selected Pacific and Indian Ocean trades. A sustained advance, however, requires today’s cargo improvement to translate into a meaningful reduction in available tonnage.

The market is firmer. Positioning will decide the next move.

Legal Disclaimer:

This article  is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources and reasonable assessments at the time of writing which may changed without prior notice , believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor any affiliated parties accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on the content of this article. The analysis is provided strictly for informational and commentary purposes and should not be interpreted as guidance for any commercial or investment decisions.Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.