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A Sea of Contrasts: Dry Bulk at the Turn of Q4

Ultramax & Handysize — Week ending 11 September 2026

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

The dry bulk market ended the week on a constructive but distinctly regional note. Prompt tonnage is tightening across parts of the Atlantic, limiting downside despite uneven cargo flow. The US Gulf and East Coast South America remain the main pillars, while the Continent, Mediterranean and Black Sea are beginning to firm. India and parts of the Far East, however, face greater tonnage pressure and more cautious charterers.

The passage into Q4 is therefore unlikely to be a broad market surge. Regional tonnage balance, high bunker costs and selective cargo growth are setting the course. Where prompt ships are scarce, owners retain the helm; where lists lengthen, charterers regain leverage. The period market is following the same tide, particularly in the Atlantic.

South Atlantic — A Steady Helm

Ultramax

The South Atlantic was broadly balanced, with activity modestly better than last week. Fronthaul led ex East Coast South America, while Transatlantic remained supported despite limited fresh enquiry. Tonnage was tighter than expected, enabling owners to defend levels. West Africa was softer, with more open ships and fewer Fronthaul cargoes. Rates were broadly flat, with a slight firmer undertow.

Handysize

Handysize remained balanced. End-September requirements were being replaced quickly, while prompt supply was contained, with much of the open tonnage in West Africa. South Brazil had around 12 ships open, including three ballasters—not enough for a bearish market, but sufficient to keep it rangebound.

High bunker costs should discourage long ballast voyages and keep tonnage regionalised. This supports North Brazil, where cargo is thinner but supply is also limited. The market should therefore move sideways, with the downside relatively well contained.

US Gulf — The Tide Tests Owners

Ultramax

The week opened firmly, but a growing ship list has shifted the balance towards charterers, albeit without undermining positive sentiment. Demand for laycans before 20 September is no longer sufficient to sustain recent low/mid-USD 30,000s Fronthaul and Transatlantic levels. Bids are moving towards USD 30,000 APS flat, and prompt owners may need to trim ideas.

The US East Coast remains markedly stronger, with good Transatlantic, Fronthaul and Brazil demand. The present softness therefore looks more like a temporary trough than a structural change. Q4 sentiment remains firm, but another leg higher will require renewed cargo enquiry.

Handysize

US Gulf Handysize strengthened steadily. After the quieter Labor Day opening, steady cargo flow and a shorter tonnage list lifted activity across the US Gulf, US East Coast and North Coast South America. Most prompt ships are now cleared and owners are again in command.

US East Coast is particularly tight, while East Coast South America remains softer. Owners have shown little appetite below the mid-USD 10,000s, with narrowing bid/offer spreads pointing higher. With healthy cargo flow and fewer prompt ships, the near-term tide remains positive.

West Coast South America — Waiting for the Wind

Ultramax

The market remained quiet, with owners resisting lower numbers. Many West Coast Central America ships continue to favour North Pacific employment over West Coast South America, tightening the available tonnage pool. Next week’s Chilean holidays may dampen activity temporarily, but the underlying supply picture merits close watch.

Handysize

Weak coastal activity is driving Handies towards East Coast South America, where healthy East Coast South America/West Coast South America rates offset ballast costs. Period appetite remains solid, with fixtures reportedly in the high-USD 10,000s. Otherwise, the coast was quiet.

Continent — A Shortening Fairway

Ultramax

The week began slowly, with little fresh enquiry and largely unchanged bids and offers. Prompt tonnage then became increasingly scarce, with most open ships pushed into late September. Demand was somewhat thinner than the previous week, but the market held firm. By Friday, improving cargo flow against limited tonnage was giving the market a firmer undertone.

Handysize

Handysize finished strongly. Charterers became more urgent, while fewer ships were available for cargoes with approximately 25-day cancelling. Healthy Baltic cargo flow supported freight, with a Baltic–West Africa trip heard fixed at USD 17,000 basis Skaw. Fresh cargo against tightening prompt supply leaves the near-term outlook constructive.

Mediterranean & Black Sea — The Upward Current

Ultramax

Activity remained subdued, but ballasters continued to leave the region, keeping supply contained, particularly in the Western Mediterranean. In the Eastern Mediterranean/Black Sea, the tightening balance increasingly points towards an upward correction. Cargo flow has improved in both areas, while moderate tonnage supports positive sentiment.

Handysize

The week sent mixed signals. Rising inbound cargo drove a midweek surge and lifted wider demand, although the tonnage list remained bulky and spot candidates were limited. Sentiment then flattened as fresh fixtures thinned.

A 38,000-DWT vessel fixed Adriatic–Rotterdam at USD 11,500 perday, while a Constanza Fronthaul was reportedly concluded at USD 16,000. The Black Sea consequently remained stable rather than decisively stronger.

 Middle east gulf, indian ocean, and south africa

Ultramax

The region remained slow. Gulf uncertainty continued to restrain activity, while recent Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia have heightened caution around the Red Sea. India remains under pressure from ample tonnage, low-paying demand and limited fixing.

South Africa provided the main support. An Ultramax was fixed to East Coast India at approximately USD 26,500 + USD 270,000 APS Richards Bay/Cape Town. Demand nevertheless thinned towards week-end. The narrowing spread between USD 24,000 + USD 240,000 ballast bonus and USD 26,000 + USD 260,000 for Ultramax Fronthaul indicates greater owner flexibility.

Middle East Gulf/West Coast India remained broadly stable on steady Salalah cargoes, with Supramaxes fixing around USD 20,000–21,000 APS for India. Southeast Asia/China remained weaker at USD 9,000–11,000 DOP. East Coast India stayed comparatively firm on Indonesian cargoes and healthy coastal activity, with prompt tonnage well employed.

The region is balanced rather than strong: cargo is limited, but so is tonnage. South Africa faces softer end-September/early-October prospects as additional ships and potential Indian ballasters emerge.

Handysize

Demand remained subdued. West Coast India/Oman was well supplied, while fresh cargo was insufficient to absorb available tonnage. Some ships have remained open for days; others are ballasting towards East Coast India/Singapore. Escalating Saudi Arabia–Houthi tensions add further risk around the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.

Far East & Southeast Asia — A Gathering Slack Tide

Ultramax

The northern market showed early signs of easing. A Japan Ultramax fixed at USD 22,000 for a North Pacific/Chittagong round, while a South Korea Ultramax achieved USD 20,000 for a North Pacific/Southeast Asia round, both below last week. Backhaul ideas remained firmer at around USD 15,000 to US Gulf, USD 23,000s to West Africa and high-USD 10,000s to West Coast South America, with a USD 1,000–2,000 bid/offer gap.

In the south, Supramaxes were heard at USD 17,000 and USD 20,000 for Indonesia–China coal. India clinker, coal and limestone continued to support the market, with Ultramax limestone bids around USD 23,000. US Gulf backhaul cement was around USD 13,000–14,000, while Australia/New Zealand rounds saw owners at USD 24,000 against charterers in the USD 21,000s.

With more tonnage opening and charterers increasingly cautious, the Far East Ultramax market is likely to soften modestly next week.

Far  East  Handysize

Far East Handysize remained broadly steady. Prompt tonnage retained some support, but not enough to alter overall levels materially. Larger Handies were testing USD 17,000–18,000 DOP for trips south.

West Coast India was somewhat softer, with owners around the mid-USD 20,000s and charterers targeting the low-USD 20,000s. Realistic levels were the low/mid-USD 20,000s, or approximately USD 18,000–19,000 via redelivery Penang/Singapore.

Backhaul employment continued to provide a reasonable floor, with larger Handies quoting USD 18,000–19,000 with split. Modern eco larger Handies were discussed at USD 18,000–19,000 for 5–7 months. The market should remain broadly stable unless fresh cargo changes the balance.

Southeast Asia & Australia — Pockets of Strength

Handysize

The region remained balanced, though scarcity of suitable prompt tonnage created pockets of strength. In Southeast Asia, smaller Handies achieved around USD 14,000–14,500/day for Pacific rounds, while larger units traded around USD 16,000–17,000/day intra-Southeast Asia.

In Australia, larger Handies opening Singapore for Australia rounds held around USD 18,000–19,000/day, with coastal business at approximately USD 20,000 to low-USD 20,000s/day. Quality large eco Handies, particularly loggers, remained supported around USD 20,000/day, against approximately USD 18,500/day for non-logger legs or short-period business.

Backhaul/US West Coast cargoes were paying around USD 16,500s/day for suitable large Handies. A few non-loggers are expected to open from mid-September across South China/North Asia and Southeast Asia, although activity currently appears balanced.

The near-term course is flat to firm, with prompt Australian tonnage and quality loggers offering the clearest upside.

Period Market — The Forward Tide Rises

Atlantic Ultramax period values continued to strengthen into Q4. US Gulf spot rates rose approximately USD 2,000 week-on-week, while East Coast South America also moved higher. Owners are now targeting USD 22,000–23,000+ for one year, with short- and medium-term business concluding in the mid-USD 20,000s. Charterers remain reluctant to follow, but sustained spot strength is increasingly feeding through to period valuations.

Atlantic Handysize period rates also firmed. Average spot earnings rose approximately USD 1,500, narrowing the Atlantic premium over the Pacific to around USD 2,000. Owners are now seeking the high-USD 10,000s for short-term employment, while charterers remain selective. Period values should remain well supported while spot retains its positive course.

Strategic Outlook — Steering into Q4

The market enters the second half of September with constructive fundamentals but sharply divergent regional currents. The strongest opportunities remain where prompt tonnage is constrained, notably the US East Coast, parts of the Continent, the South Atlantic and selected Australia/Southeast Asia Handysize trades. Conversely, lengthening lists in US Gulf Ultramax, India and parts of the Far East argue against a uniform Q4 rally.

Our base case remains a firm but uneven Q4. Regional supply positioning should matter more than headline cargo growth. High bunker prices should discourage speculative ballast and reinforce regional tonnage scarcity, while Red Sea disruption remains an operational wildcard capable of rapidly altering trading patterns.

The right commercial course is disciplined, not aggressive. Protect upside where prompt tonnage is genuinely scarce. Avoid chasing weakening markets. Use the improving period market selectively to secure attractive forward employment. In the months ahead, close cargo and tonnage intelligence, combined with timely positioning, should prove more valuable than broad directional bets.

The central strategic task is to separate temporary rate corrections from genuine changes in the supply-demand balance. That distinction will define the quality of decisions through Q4—and, in a market this regionalised, the advantage will belong to those able to read the sea state early and adjust the course accordingly.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reade