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Firm Sentiment, Limited Fixing: A Closer Look at the Ultramax and Handysize Markets

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director

The dry bulk market for Ultramax and Handysize vessels continues to move in a familiar—but tricky—pattern: sentiment is improving, but actual fixing activity still lags behind. It’s a market that reads between the lines, not just the numbers.

Atlantic Basin Period : Sentiment Holds, Volume Lags

In the Atlantic, the Ultramax segment is gradually firming, supported more by mood than by fixtures. Positive signals from the U.S. Gulf and the Far East are shaping expectations, even if concluded business remains limited.

Handysize follows a similar track. Enquiry is still quiet, but cargo from East Coast South America keeps the market grounded, acting as the main source of stability.

South Atlantic: Two Speeds, One Story

For Ultramaxes, the South Atlantic felt firmer this week—but without a real push in rates. South Brazil showed better fundamentals, while North Brazil stayed soft, effectively capping any upside. West Africa remains heavy with tonnage, keeping pressure on earnings. The tone is better, but not yet convincing.

Handysize activity was slow. Holidays—including Orthodox Easter—combined with bunker uncertainty and geopolitical noise kept many players on the sidelines. Focus shifted toward first-half laycans, though visibility remains limited. Supply is adequate, but the gap between North and South Brazil is widening, with the North clearly discounted. Larger eco units still earn a premium thanks to fuel efficiency and longer-haul economics—key advantages in today’s bunker environment.

U.S. Gulf: Ultramax Moves, Handy Waits

Ultramaxes in the U.S. Gulf gained ground steadily as tonnage tightened and cargo kept flowing. Transatlantic runs have already reached the low USD 30,000s, though front haul demand is still thin. Owners are now quoting USD 27,000–28,000 for May–June transatlantic business.

Handysize tells a flatter story. No real rate movement yet. Early May looks more promising, but without fresh cargo, upside remains limited. With around 71 vessels on the 20-day list and steady inflow, the market stayed under pressure all week.

West Coast South America: Waiting for the Spillover

Ultramaxes are expected to follow the strength seen in the North Pacific and East Coast South America, with a likely upward move in the coming days.

For Handies, the long tonnage list is still holding things back. A meaningful rise will likely come only when the earnings gap with Ultramaxes stretches beyond USD 5,000/day. At that point, charterers will shift focus—and Handies should follow, typically with about a one-week delay.

Continent: Supply Drives the Narrative

Ultramaxes continue to dominate supply in the Continent, with limited Supramax availability forcing charterers to look elsewhere. More cargo entered the market as the week progressed, supporting a firmer close.

Handysize remains volatile, mainly due to high bunkers and tighter supply. Brazil’s improving outlook is already pushing attention toward late April and early May stems. Rates held firm, with owners standing their ground. Scrap demand could pressure grain flows, but that shift hasn’t happened yet. Overall, the market is moving forward—slowly but steadily—with signs that short-period interest is picking up.

Mediterranean / Black Sea: Too Many Ships, Not Enough Cargo

Ultramaxes saw a slight improvement thanks to more end-April opportunities, though not enough to absorb open tonnage—especially in the East Med.

Handysize remains stuck. Cargo flow is inconsistent and insufficient to balance the growing vessel list. Owners are active but often without results, while charterers stay selective. With limited Black Sea prospects, some vessels may have to ballast out, adding further pressure. For now, the market needs cargo—simple as that.

Middle East Gulf / Indian Ocean / South Africa: Risk Still in the Price

Ultramaxes remain largely unchanged. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily, with owners demanding strong war risk premiums. Many vessels now prefer loading east of Hormuz or Oman. On the West Coast India side, weak salt exports to China keep rates in the low teens, pushing owners toward coastal or South African trades. East Coast India sees limited iron ore exports, but steady coastal demand, Indonesian activity, and rice flows to West Africa provide some balance.

In South Africa, the week opened softer. Fixtures came in below previous levels, while supply held steady with around 16 open vessels and a few ballasters. Activity slowed, but coal exports continue to provide a floor, even as manganese volumes ease slightly. Reported business remains limited, including a Supramax on subjects at about USD 17,000 plus USD 170,000 ballast bonus to China. Some April cargo is still open, but charterers are in no rush.

Handysize in the region stayed flat. Ongoing tensions make any recovery premature. Fujairah/Oman loadings still command a premium, and sentiment remains fragile—often shifting with headlines. India demand is soft, while East Coast supply has tightened slightly, keeping things broadly balanced.

Far East / Southeast Asia: Owners Back in Control

Ultramaxes in the North started quietly but picked up as the week progressed. Backhaul demand remains the key support, alongside stronger period interest. Reports suggest around USD 20,000 for short-period deals. Spot activity saw Supramax fixing high teens to the Med via the Gulf of Aden. NOPAC remains quiet, with owners cautious. Overall, tightening supply and a stronger paper market favour owners.

In the South, activity stayed strong, led by Indonesia. Coal and clinker flows kept the market active, with Indonesia–India runs fixing around USD 25,000. Australia started slow but improved, with bids at USD 19,000–20,000 and owners holding higher. Period levels follow the same line, near USD 20,000. Still, a large portion of cargo was covered by week’s end, which may stabilise the market short term.

Handysize in the Far East kept a firm upward trend. Larger units, especially for April, are in demand, with sentiment clearly positive. The size gap remains, but both segments are gaining ground. Australian  fertilizer demand continues to support premiums for australian friendly fertilizers 1 vessels . Larger Handies fixed around USD 14,000+, with owners aiming USD 15,000–16,000. Smaller units worked USD 11,000–12,000, targeting USD 13,000+.

MEG – West Coast India & Backhaul ex Far east / s.e Asia : Premiums Hold

MEG–West Coast India routes remain firm, driven by geopolitical uncertainty. Steel cargoes on large Handies are fixing between USD 20,000–25,000, setting the tone for the market.

Backhaul is also improving. Rates are edging higher, with more stems in circulation. Large Handies are fixing mid USD 16,000s, with owners pushing toward USD 17,000–17,500 DOP for end-April. With more cargo coming into play, the segment looks stable—with upside potential.

Period Market in Far east : Confidence Returns

The period market in the Far East saw a clear jump this week. Demand is focused on modern eco vessels, with fixtures around USD 17,000 reflecting charterers’ preference for efficiency.

Smaller vessels are also holding firm, in the low USD 13,000s for short periods. Overall, demand is rising, confidence is back, and momentum is building—with no immediate signs of slowing down.

Southeast Asia / Australia handy : Tight Supply, Firm Rates

Handysize in Southeast Asia followed the broader upward trend, supported by better cargo flow and tighter positions. Owners are gaining leverage, and charterers are adjusting expectations.

Australia remains firm, with steady enquiry for end-April and early May. The coastal market continues to support rates, while limited prompt tonnage keeps levels elevated. Outbound voyages are in the high teens to low USD 20,000s, with modern units exceeding USD 20,000. Charterers are also covering Aussie rounds with ballasters from Southeast Asia—one large eco Handy reportedly fixed at USD 18,000 basis Singapore.

The overall picture is clear: supply is tightening, demand is holding, and the market—slowly but steadily—is pushing higher.

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This article  is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources and reasonable assessments at the time of writing which may changed without prior notice , believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor any affiliated parties accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on the content of this article. The analysis is provided strictly for informational and commentary purposes and should not be interpreted as guidance for any commercial or investment decisions.Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.