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Xclusiv Shipbrokers, Inc. :The crude tanker market in 2026 has undergone one of the most violent earnings transformations

The crude tanker market in 2026 has undergone one of the most violent earnings transformations in recent memory, driven not by demand expansion but by the physical disruption of the world's most critical oil chokepoint. The first four months of the year tell two sharply distinct stories: a pre-conflict period defined by firm demand and steadily escalating freight, and a conflict-period collapse in seaborne crude volumes that paradoxically drove tanker earnings to historically extreme levels, illustrating, with unusual clarity, the degree to which effective tonnage supply rather than cargo volumes governs short-term rate outcomes.

Through January and February, seaborne crude flows were on a constructive trajectory. January 2026 reached 1,389 million barrels, a 3.2% year-on-year increase versus January 2025's 1,345 million barrels, while February advanced to 1,332 million barrels, a 6.0% gain over February 2025's 1,256 million barrels. These were the strongest two-month comparable readings since 2023 and reflected genuine improvement in global crude trade dynamics. Baltic Exchange tanker TCEs had already begun to price in a tighter environment: VLCC rates averaged $78,512/day in January 2026, double the $38,136/day of January 2025, while Suezmax averaged $88,445/day versus $25,556/day, and Aframax $67,957/day against $25,612/day a year earlier. The escalation of US-Iran hostilities fundamentally altered the market from March onwards. Seaborne crude volumes contracted sharply: March 2026 came in at 1,253 million barrels, a 13.2% year-on-year decline versus March 2025's 1,443 million barrels, while April fell further to 1,244 million barrels, an 8.9% contraction. The four-month crude total for 2026 stands at 5,218 million barrels, a 3.6% reduction from the 5,411 million barrels of the same period in 2025, and broadly erasing the incremental gains accumulated since 2023. The Strait's de facto constrained status translated directly into the cargo data: barrels that should have been moving were not, and the volumes confirmed what maritime security advisories had already flagged.

Yet the freight market response was unprecedented in modern tanker history. VLCC earnings surged to a monthly average of $242,917/day in March 2026, a 483% increase over March 2025's $41,633/day, before moderating only marginally to $223,430/day in April and remaining at elevated levels into May at $215,881/day. Suezmax rates reached a monthly average of $204,822/day in March (+329% year-on-year), while Aframax posted $140,398/day, a 345% advance. The mechanics are well understood: constrained transit, war risk premium-driven tonnage withdrawal, and insurance market paralysis reduce effective vessel supply far more sharply than cargo volumes fall, producing outsized earnings for operators maintaining active exposure.

The divergence between physical cargo flows and freight rate dynamics encapsulates the structural tension now defining the crude tanker market. May 2026 data already shows some moderation from the March peaks, suggesting markets have begun pricing in a degree of normalisation. Whether that normalisation becomes a sustained rebalancing or merely a pause before the next escalation remains the defining variable for crude tanker positioning through the remainder of the year and the answer will be shaped less by shipping fundamentals than by the diplomatic and military trajectory of a conflict whose shipping consequences have already been extraordinary.

S&P Activity:

Dry:

Dry S&P activity remained firm this week, with a notable volume of transactions across the, Ultramax/Supramax and Handysize sectors. On the Capesize sector, the "Pigassos" - 176K/2011 SWS was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 31.7 mills, while the "Chin Shan" - 176K/2004 CSBC changed hands for USD 20.3 mills. Moving to the Kamsarmax sector, the resale "Moana" - 82K/2026 Yangzi was sold for USD 36.5 mills, while the "Joy" - 81K/2019 Chengxi achieved USD 31 mills. The "HC Pioneer" - 83K/2010 Sanoyas was also sold for USD 17.7 mills. In the Ultramax segment, the sister vessels "Huayang Rose" and "Huayang Lily" - 64K/2016 China Shipping were sold en bloc for USD 50.4 mills to Chinese buyers. On the Supramax sector, Greek buyers acquired the "Sumaq Queen" - 51K/2017 Imabari for USD 25 mills. On the same sector, the "Xing Ning He" - 53K/2009 Zhejiang was sold for USD 11 mills, while the Scrubber fitted "West Bay" - 52K/2004 Tsuneishi Cebu fetched high USD 9 mills. The "Elpida GR" - 52K/2003 Toyohashi was also sold for low USD 8 mills. In the Handysize sector, significant interest was noted for modern tonnage, with four 40K dwt newbuild resales, the "Clacton", "Eastbourne", "Margate" and "Portsmouth" - 40K/2024 JNS, sold en bloc to Norden for USD 120 mills. Finally, the smaller logger "Ken Orchid" - 28K/2011 Imabari was sold for USD 10 mills, while the logger "Gant Flair" - 28K/2010 Imabari achieved USD 9.8 mills.

Tanker:

Tanker S&P activity was robust this week, with a healthy number of transactions. On the Suezmax sector, two resale newbuildings, the Scrubber fitted "Daehan 5111" and "Daehan 5118" - 158K/2027 Daehan, were sold en bloc for USD 190 mills. In the LR2 sector, the Scrubber fitted "STI Condotti" - 110K/2014 Hyundai Samho achieved excess USD 70 mills. Moving down to the MR2 sector, the "High Tide" - 52K/2012 Hyundai Mipo was sold for USD 28.45 mills to Nusantara Maritime basis TC free delivery between August and November. The "Autan" - 51K/2009 SPP was also sold for USD 23.5. Additionally, Turkish buyers acquired the "Royal Jasmine" - 53K/2008 GSI for USD 20.7 mills, while the 3-year-older "Sunny Victory" - 47K/2005 Hyundai Mipo was sold for USD 16 mills basis delivery in the USG/Caribs area in mid-July. Finally, on the small tanker segment, the stainless steel "Easterly Beech Galaxy" - 20K/2007 Usuki was sold for USD 16.35 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.