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Calm Seas or Hidden Currents? The Handysize & Ultramax Market Navigates a Delicate Balance

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

The winds that once filled the sails of the geared bulk market have eased. As October draws to a close, Handysize and Ultramax players find themselves steering through calmer waters — not becalmed, yet no longer driven by the strong tailwinds of early autumn. The market has entered a transitional phase: the optimism of previous weeks has given way to pragmatic seamanship. Those who can read the changing currents — and adjust their trim accordingly — will hold the advantage as November approaches.

Handysize: Charterers Take the Helm as Tonnage Floods the Lanes

US Gulf / US East Coast – A Drift into Softer Seas

The Gulf’s once-brisk trade winds faded this week, leaving owners trimming their sails. A glut of prompt tonnage met thinning cargo enquiry, allowing charterers to chart the course. Rates eased, particularly for the short-haul runs, while a handful of coastal stems offered brief respite. Some owners took the longer passages to keep their vessels gainfully employed, but the mood across the Gulf remains defensive — a cautious voyage rather than a confident cruise.

Outlook: Early November may bring steadier waters if soybean volumes gather pace, yet any rebound looks destined to be a slow tack rather than a full-blown surge.

East Coast South America – Supply Outruns the Breeze

Across the South Atlantic, the Handysize market shifted decisively into correction. From north to south Brazil, open tonnage lists lengthened like ships in convoy, while grain demand proved tepid. Charterers, sensing the tide, pressed their advantage; owners, pragmatic as ever, chose movement over margin.

Outlook: The week ahead looks softer still, but by mid-November, seasonal exports could reawaken demand, offering owners a new heading toward firmer ground.

West Coast South America – A Quiet Passage

The western seaboard of South America has seen little fanfare. Activity slipped, particularly for Pacific-bound business, leaving owners weighing their options. Some have ballasted north or east in search of better prospects — a costly but sometimes necessary odyssey to avoid idle days.

Outlook: Expect another muted week, though a modest revival could emerge later in November as NOPAC and WCSA orders trickle in.

Northern Europe – Holding Course amid Swelling Supply

The Continent began the week on an even keel, supported by grains and scrap, but fresh arrivals from the Baltic and US Gulf have diluted that balance. Demand remains fair for cross-Atlantic and intra-European routes, yet the tide is gently turning in charterers’ favour.

Outlook: A brief correction may be on the horizon before steadier December enquiry steadies the ship.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – Competitive but Buoyant

In the Med, competition has stiffened. Grain and cement cargoes from the Black Sea continue to provide lifeblood, but mounting spot tonnage — particularly from the Continent and North Africa — has trimmed owners’ leverage. The market remains afloat, yet the waters are choppier than before.

Outlook: A mild easing is expected. Active fixing should prevent a hard landing, though the charterers now clearly hold the compass.

Middle East Gulf / India – Drifting without a Catalyst

Handysize business in the MEG and Indian subcontinent stayed mostly flat, with few surprises. Coastal coal and fertiliser runs offered limited support. Owners, ever the strategoi of the sea, are looking ahead — fixing forward to secure cover into December.

Outlook: Expect more of the same. Until mid-November, the market is likely to sail steady, neither rising nor falling sharply.

Southeast Asia / Far East – Steady as She Goes

Asia remains the bright quadrant of the Handysize map. Demand for steel, parcels, and short-haul cargoes within the intra-Asian trade continues to keep the market buoyant. Australian rounds held firm on the back of limited tonnage, while larger Handies commanded modest premiums for southbound voyages.

Outlook: The undertone stays positive. Even if volumes cool slightly in early November, disciplined supply should keep the Far Eastern waters calm and profitable.

Ultramax: Between Hope and Headwinds

US Gulf / US East Coast – Reality over Rumour

The Ultramax fleet in the Americas found itself caught between mythos and logos — between whispers of renewed Chinese grain demand and the reality of a lacklustre spot scene. Fixtures went through at lower numbers, reflecting a chartering climate governed by caution rather than conviction.

Outlook: Expect soft-to-flat conditions in the week ahead, unless Chinese buyers return with vigour.

East Coast South America – The Correction Deepens

ECSA Ultramax owners faced a sobering reality as optimism waned. A surplus of vessels, coupled with delayed stems and sluggish trans-Atlantic trade, drove the market lower. Forward cover into November has become increasingly elusive, forcing owners to prioritise utilisation over earnings.

Outlook: The market’s compass points downward, though a stabilising breeze could return later in November if demand for Far East destinations revives.

West Coast South America – Running Light

The WCSA Ultramax market remains subdued. Few fresh stems, coupled with mineral and salt cargo stagnation, left vessels idle at anchorage. An influx of ballasters from the Indian Ocean added further ballast — literally and figuratively — to the downward pressure.

Outlook: Continued weakness is likely into mid-November, unless Pacific demand unexpectedly resurfaces.

Northern Europe – The Iron Trade Eases

Scrap shipments remain the linchpin of Ultramax activity in the Continent, but levels have softened. The once-firm tone has given way to a measured retreat as charterers test lower bids and trans-Atlantic support wanes.

Outlook: Expect gradual easing before winter demand provides a course correction.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – A Crowded Anchorage

Ultramaxes in the Med are contending with a build-up of tonnage from both east and west. Clinker, steel, and grain cargoes provide employment but at thinner margins. Owners are navigating with flexibility, aware that the helm rests firmly in charterers’ hands.

Outlook: Weak-to-flat conditions prevail, though forward planning and strategic positioning can still yield fair voyages.

South Africa – A Market in Holding Pattern

Down at the Cape, the Ultramax scene remains calm but unremarkable. Coal exports to India and the Middle East dominate proceedings, though fixtures are routine rather than robust. Some owners from the West Coast of India have been lured south by marginally better returns — a tactical manoeuvre in a steady but unspectacular theatre.

Outlook: Flat to mildly negative in the near term. A flicker of strength could return if Indian coal demand rises or weather delays tighten local supply.

Middle East Gulf / India – Steady under a Pale Sky

The MEG and Indian Ultramax scene remains in a holding pattern. Period interest is steady, with owners eyeing Q1 positioning over short-term wins. Voyages to East Africa and the Far East continue to provide the backbone of employment.

Outlook: Little change expected — steady as she goes until a clearer global trade signal appears.

Southeast Asia / Far East – Holding the Line

Oversupply in Indonesia and North China initially weighed on sentiment, but the market has found its sea legs again. Indo–India and Aussie rounds offered decent returns, though overall enquiry remains measured. Forward fixtures at reduced levels betray a quiet caution among charterers.

Outlook: Flat to soft for now, but a modest rebound could emerge by mid-November as Chinese coastal activity revives.

Charting the Week Ahead

The compass for both Handysize and Ultramax points to sideways drift rather than stormy seas. The Atlantic remains under mild pressure, while Asia holds its course. The broader psyche of the market is shifting from euphoria to equilibrium — a necessary correction after the exuberance of Q3.

Owners are tightening their operational rigging, focusing on utilisation and forward cover, while charterers are steering with confidence, buoyed by abundant supply. Yet beneath the surface, latent demand still stirs; the coming weeks may reveal whether this calm is the prelude to recovery or merely the eye of the market’s broader cycle.

Charting the Course Ahead

The geared bulk sector stands at a crossroads between calm and resurgence. In this delicate balance, fortune will favour not the bold, but the prepared — those who navigate with foresight, cultivate alliances, and interpret each market signal as a mariner reads the constellations.

At TMC Shipping, we believe success in volatile markets requires both technical skill and philosophical vision — the blend of techne and sophia that defines true maritime mastery. The weeks ahead will reward that very fusion.

Disclaimer: This report is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, commercial recommendation, or solicitation. The views expressed are based on data and market observations considered reliable at the time of writing, but no warranty is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Any decisions based on this content are at the sole discretion and risk of the reader.