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Dry bulk closed 2025 in a very "old-school" way

Dry bulk closed 2025 in a very "old-school" way: not through a demand explosion, but through utilisation tightening, timing and just enough friction to turn small shifts into big rate moves. The recovery was broad-based across sizes, with volatility clearly higher in H2. Capesizes were the headline act, rallying from roughly USD 7–10k/day early in the year to a peak near USD 45k/day in December. Mid-sizes delivered less drama but more consistency: Kamsarmax improved into the USD 15–18k/day range mid-year, Ultramax peaked around USD 18k/day and stayed above average despite a Q4 correction, while Handysize climbed steadily to around USD 16k/day by year-end.

Under the hood, trade was stable rather than breakout. Global dry seaborne volumes edged up to 7.2bn tonnes in 2025 (+1.4% YoY), and the cargo mix remained dominated by the big two: coal at 2.1bn tonnes (29%) and iron ore at 1.88bn tonnes (26%). Beyond them, the "middle layer" still matters for keeping basins active and ballasting optionality alive, with other ores at 0.65bn tonnes (9%), grains at 0.63bn (9%) and project cargoes around 0.56bn (8%). Demand concentration remains the defining feature: China absorbs close to 3.0bn tonnes, or 42% of total, dwarfing the next importers (India 7%, Japan 6%). On the supply side, Australia leads origins at 1.51bn tonnes (21%), followed by China (13%), Indonesia (10%) and Brazil (10%). Supply growth stayed controlled, but the age profile is turning into the real swing factor. The active fleet increased to 14,573 ships and 1,064m DWT in 2025, while the orderbook-to-fleet ratio edged up to 11.0% in DWT terms, still moderate by historical standards. The pressure is uneven: ordering is concentrated in Ultramax and Kamsarmax, while Capesize orderbook coverage stays low. Meanwhile ageing accelerated, with around 28% of the fleet already 16 years or older versus roughly 24% a year earlier, meaning utilisation can tighten quickly when charterers start drawing informal lines on efficiency, emissions profile, and risk appetite.

This is where coal stops being "just another cargo" and becomes a strategic variable. The IEA expects total coal exports to fall about 4.8% to 1.47bn tonnes in 2025, easing to 1.4bn tonnes in 2027 and 1.3bn tonnes by 2030, with Indonesian exports projected to shrink to 368m tonnes in 2030 from 555m tonnes in 2024. Those Indonesia-to-China/India legs are short-haul, but they are high-volume and high-frequency—the kind of baseline employment that keeps utilisation tight when iron ore pauses. If that baseline slowly leaks, the market doesn't "collapse"; it becomes more competitive, with the pressure first felt in the segments that have been leaning on coal repositioning and regional cycles. Add the noted shift of coal cargoes from Capesizes to Panamaxes this year, and you get a redistribution of earnings power rather than a simple downshift.

Looking into 2026, the setup reads "low-growth, higher-noise": GDP still expanding (IMF 3.1%), but merchandise trade cooling, coal edging down and iron ore flat-to-modest with China sensitivity. The mechanical balance loosens, with ship demand growth of roughly 1–2% versus fleet supply around 2.6%, deliveries approaching 41.2m DWT (around 600 vessels) and fleet growth projected near 3.8% assuming 4.6m DWT of demolition. In that environment, dry bulk will be shaped less by headline tonnes—and more by tonne-mile quality, scrapping discipline, and how quickly ageing steel exits the pool.

Dry S&P Activity:

Bulk carrier S&P activity this week was spread across the larger and medium-sized segments, with a number of transactions reported. On the Capesize sector, the "EUROPE" – 179K/2010 Daewoo was sold for USD 30.9 mills to Chinese buyers. Moving to the Panamax sector, Chinese buyers acquired the ice class 1C "THE GIVER" – 76K/2006 Sanoyas for USD 11.5 mills. Further down the sizes, the supramax "WARIYA NAREE" – 54K/2011 Hindustan was sold for USD 9.85 mills, while the handy "SEPETIBA BAY" – 35K/2012 Samjin fetched low/mid USD 11 mills, both to undisclosed interests. Finally, Turkish buyers acquired the Open hatched box shaped "BC VANESSA" – 32K/2010 Saiki for USD 12.5 mills.

Tanker S&P Activity:

Tanker S&P activity this week was characterized by enbloc activity in the LR1 segment, alongside additional transactions in the MR and small tanker sectors. On the LR2 sector, the sister vessels "STI GOAL" – 110K/2016 GSI and "STI GALLANTRY" – 110K/2016 GSI were sold enbloc for USD 104.6 mills each, to undisclosed buyers. In the MR segment, the "NORD SUPERIOR" – 50K/2015 STX changed hands for USD 33.8 mills, buyers undisclosed. Finally, in the small tanker segment, the "LILAC" – 7K/2009 Qingdao Qianjin was sold for USD 4.5 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.