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Dry Bulk Dispatch: Navigating Week 42’s Shifting Currents

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis — Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant & TMC Shipping Commercial Director

Shipping Pulse

Week 42 unfolded as a tale of contrasts across the dry bulk spectrum. Handysize and Ultramax segments displayed measured stability, buoyed by a balanced interplay of supply and cargo demand. In the Atlantic, particularly the US Gulf and South American corridors, pockets of firmness persisted, underpinned by steady grains, fertilisers, and minor bulk stems. Meanwhile, the Far East remained a complex theatre: post-holiday flows, regulatory nuances, and selective cargo demand kept owners cautious but resolute on rates.

Tonnage discipline was a defining theme, preventing sharp falls despite occasional regional softening. Looking ahead, early November stems are drawing attention, hinting at potential short-term firmness if cargo demand sustains. Overall, the market exudes cautious optimism, with charterers recognising that flexibility and timing will be decisive over the coming week.

Handysize Sector

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)
Tight tonnage lists continue to underpin resilience in the US Gulf. Inter-Caribbean and transatlantic flows remain the primary drivers, giving owners a firm hand in negotiations. Regulatory shifts and the latest China tariffs add a layer of complexity, yet prompt cargo availability keeps the market tone constructive.

East Coast South America (ECSA)
Activity has softened slightly. Owners holding back prompt vessels contribute to a balanced market sentiment. Interest is emerging for early November stems, suggesting any rate uptick will be selective rather than broad-based.

West Coast South America (WCSA)
Despite a few new fixtures, the market is under mild pressure, particularly for non-USG destinations. October coverage is generally sufficient, though early November cargoes are starting to attract attention, supporting a cautiously firm outlook.

Northern Europe (Continent / NWE)
Activity eased slightly this week, with fewer fresh enquiries. Charterers are selective, and owners have resisted rate concessions, maintaining stability, particularly for grain shipments to the Mediterranean.

Mediterranean
Rates remained broadly steady. The West Mediterranean experienced mild tightening due to vessel movements northwards, while East Med and Black Sea stems remained largely unchanged.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)
The MEG market maintained a steady rhythm. Prompt tonnage remains abundant, while owners offer competitive levels to secure voyages. Rates showed minor fluctuation without a directional shift.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)
Post-Golden Week activity in China and Korea revived the market. Cargo flows into the Indian Ocean and intra-FE trades supported rates. Australian cargoes generated competitive bids for medium Handysize vessels, while smaller units saw measured, steady activity.

Ultramax Sector

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)
Ultramax activity mirrored Handysize trends. Steady cargo flows sustained rates, with prompt tonnage handled selectively. Fronthaul trips showed mild improvement, suggesting modest potential firming in the week ahead.

East Coast South America (ECSA)
Ultramax vessels benefit from October coverage. Fronthaul voyages, especially towards the Far East, are seeing minor rate improvements, driven by selective stems rather than broad-based surges.

West Coast South America (WCSA)
Prompt tonnage remains available but balanced. Early November cargoes attract interest, while overall sentiment remains steady.

Northern Europe (Continent / NWE)
Slight softening occurred for both transatlantic and fronthaul trades as tonnage remains comfortable. Owners maintained discipline, ensuring corrections were muted rather than steep.

Mediterranean
A mixed picture emerged: minor fronthaul gains offset by softening on short-haul regional stems. Selective opportunities for premium voyages remain.

South Africa
Limited fresh enquiry kept the market steady. Owners preserved their positioning for potential North Atlantic and Far East cargoes.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)
Ultramax tonnage is absorbed mainly by Safr-dominated flows. Selective voyages experienced minor upward adjustments. Overall balance prevails.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)
Coal flows from Indonesia and Australia supported rates. Backhaul demand remains firm. Prompt tonnage and selective owners prevent spikes, while period business continues as owners seek cautious longer-term coverage.

FFA Forward Outlook & Predictions

Market Overview
Week 42 highlighted the market’s sensitivity to both sentiment and fundamentals. Tight tonnage lists, selective cargoes, and macro uncertainties produced a market that is resilient yet reactive. While Handysize and Ultramax segments showed stability, Panamax and Capesize curves reflected pronounced volatility, responding to Chinese port charge news and broader supply-demand dynamics. Owners in the Atlantic leveraged scarcity to maintain rates, while charterers proceeded cautiously, selectively committing vessels. Moderate gains for prompt tonnage remain possible, tempered by potential corrective adjustments as flows settle.

Capesize
FFAs revealed marked oscillations. Monday’s aggressive buying amid port charge uncertainties lifted November to 31,000 and December to 26,500. By Tuesday, China-related fee details triggered corrections: October fell to 25,000, November to 26,000, and Q1 to 16,750. Midweek buying lifted November to 28,500, December to 26,000, and Cal26 ticked higher to 22,750. The week closed calmer: November 28,500, December 26,250, Q1 17,300.
Forward view: Volatility will persist but remain within a defined range. Prompt cargoes may drive modest gains, while news-flow from China could trigger short-term dips.

Panamax
Early-week optimism gave way to corrections. October rose to 16,000, November 16,350, December 15,100, and Q1 11,850. Tuesday’s news sent October to 14,750, November to 14,200, Q1 to 11,000, Cal26 to 12,000. Midweek buying restored positive momentum; November recovered to 15,250, and Thursday saw front-end stability.
Forward view: Sentiment is stabilising; modest recovery is possible for front-end contracts, with upside limited unless prompt cargoes accelerate.

Supramax
Early bullishness saw November reach 16,150, December 15,100, Q1 11,700, Cal26 12,800. Tuesday sell-offs brought November to 14,600 and December to 13,750. Midweek trading remained rangebound: November 14,900–15,250, December 14,200–14,450. Thursday closed with slight declines, reflecting a market awaiting fresh cues.
Forward view: Range-bound conditions likely to persist; selective cargoes may support tactical gains.

Handysize & Ultramax
Regional markets show resilience. Early November stems may prompt slight upward pressure in rates, particularly in the Atlantic, supporting steady sentiment across these segments.

1-Week Forward Forecast & Sentiment

Capesize: Volatile / news-sensitive

Panamax: Stabilising / cautiously bullish

Supramax: Range-bound / measured

Handysize / Ultramax: Firm / resilient

Market tone remains cautiously optimistic. Owners are likely to maintain disciplined positions, while charterers adopt selective strategies, particularly for early November cargoes. Overall, a conservative but constructive outlook is expected.

Disclaimer
This report reflects current market observations, Baltic FFA assessments, and expert interpretation of shipping dynamics. Forecasts are indicative and based on prevailing conditions; market developments can change rapidly. Readers should consider this as professional insight rather than definitive advice. This report is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, commercial recommendation, or solicitation. The views expressed are based on data and market observations considered reliable at the time of writing, but no warranty is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Any decisions based on this content are at the sole discretion and risk of the reader.