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The dry bulk market showed notable resilience

The dry bulk market showed notable resilience in the third quarter of 2025, supported by firm commodity flows and a steady demand outlook across key segments. Spot earnings strengthened across all vessel classes, with most segments recording their highest quarterly averages in more than a year. Capesize vessels led the market, Q3 2025 average stands at $24,223/day, the strongest quarterly performance since Q3 2024. Kamsarmaxes followed with an average of $15,888/day, their highest since Q2 2024, while Ultramaxes averaged $16,930/day, the best level since Q3 2024. Handysizes also improved, averaging $12,818/day, again marking their strongest quarterly outcome since Q3 2024. These improvements reflect a combination of healthier Atlantic activity, firmer transpacific demand, and robust cargo flows from China, particularly in bauxite and iron ore. Analysing trade flow data from Signal Ocean Platform, it is noted that since the beginning of 2025, China has imported 165.4 million tonnes of bauxite, a sharp 26% increase year-on-year compared with the same period in 2024. This volume already nearly equals the full-year imports of 2023 and stands only 9% below the total for 2024. September has been particularly strong, with imports reaching 17.4 million tonnes, 14% higher than August and the largest monthly intake since June 2025. Guinea continues to dominate as China's primary supplier, providing 131.45 million tonnes and accounting for 73.7% of total imports. This figure already exceeds Guinea's full-year exports in 2024 by 6%, highlighting its rapid expansion. By contrast, Australia's role has diminished, with shipments down 26% year-on-year to 33.38 million tonnes, reflecting weaker supply dynamics and shifting Chinese procurement preferences. Capesize vessels have emerged as the clear beneficiaries of this trade. In 2025, they carried 70.9% of China's bauxite imports, compared with 62.1% in 2024—an impressive 14% increase. Supramax carriers also improved their share, rising from 3% to 3.7% (+23%). In contrast, other vessel classes lost ground. VLOCs recorded a steep drop, falling from 9.4% to 6.2% (-34%), while Panamax and Handysize carriers each contracted by around one-third. Post-Panamax tonnage also slipped, losing nearly four percentage points to settle at 13.3% (-22%). The growing reliance on Capesize vessels underpins their stronger earnings and emphasizes the segment's strategic role in bulk commodity flows into China. Unlike bauxite, China's coal imports softened during 2025. Total arrivals reached 276.1 million tonnes, down 14% year-on-year. Indonesia remained the top supplier with 140.53 million tonnes, representing 50.9% of China's coal imports, though this was 16% lower than the previous year. Australia ranked second with 53.87 million tonnes (19.5% share), underscoring a subdued trade environment compared with the robust demand seen in 2024.China's iron ore imports have held broadly stable compared with 2024, totaling 919.3 million tonnes so far in 2025. Australia, the largest supplier, shipped 573.57 million tonnes, a slight decline of 0.8% versus last year. Brazil, however, expanded its presence, with exports rising 4% to 207.74 million tonnes. This shift highlights China's gradual diversification of supply while maintaining high overall import levels. The combination of resilient iron ore demand, surging bauxite flows, and shifting trade patterns in coal has created a supportive backdrop for dry bulk earnings in Q3 2025. The increasing dominance of Capesize vessels in the bauxite trade, alongside stable ore volumes, suggests continued strength in the larger segments. With all vessel classes recording their strongest quarterly averages in over a year, the market enters Q4 2025 with a positive momentum, albeit with uncertainties tied to energy imports and global demand trends.

S&P Activity:

Dry:

Large sizes were quite active this week, with a total of five Newcastlemax and Capesize vessels finding new homes. The Scrubber fitted Newcastlemax "Bulk Shenzhen" - 208K/2020 New Times, the "Bulk Santiago" - 208K/2019 New Times and the "Bulk Sandefjord" - 208K/2019 New Times were sold for USD 209 mills enbloc to Middle Eastern buyers. On the Capesize sector, the "Eastern Freesia"- 180K/2010 Qingdao Beihai changed hands for USD 23.25 mills, while the Scrubber fitted "Battersea"- 169K/2009 Daehan was sold for USD 24.6 mills. The Electronic M/E Kamsarmax "Jiuxu 81" - 82K/2013 Wuhu Xinlian was sold for USD 18.5 mills. On the Ultramax sector, the "Great Vista" - 61K/2021 Dacks was sold via auction for USD 27.8 mills, while the "Beauty Lily" - 64K/2015 China Shipping found new owners for USD 22.25 mills. Last but not least, Navision Shipping acquired 2x Handysize vessels, the "Dvadesetprvi Maj"- 35K/2012 Shanghai Shipyard and the "Kotor"- 35K/2012 Shanghai Shipyard for USD 13.25 mills enbloc.

Tanker:

The LR2 "Yinghao Confidence" - 108K/2010 Tsuneishi was sold for USD 36.2 mills to clients of Flynn Ventures. Ultratank acquired the LR1 "GH Madison" - 75K/2010 HMD for USD 21.5 mills. On the MR2 sector, the "T Matterhorn"- 48K/2010 Iwagi was sold for USD 20 mills basis SS/DD due and basis TC attached till Q1 2026. Finally, the small tanker "Silver Ray" - 19K/2013 Kitanihon found new owners for USD 24.5 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.