News in English

NAVIGATING THE CURRENTS OF GLOBAL SHIPPING

By

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant & Chartering Executive

 & Commercial Director

TMC SHIPPING

19th September 2025

The global shipping market, like the oceans themselves, is in constant motion—its currents shifting unpredictably, creating opportunities and challenges for shipowners, operators, and investors alike. As we look across the spectrum of the Handysize and Ultramax sectors, we observe a patchwork of regional dynamics, each reflecting broader economic trends, geopolitical shifts, and the ebb and flow of supply and demand.

In this analysis, we will explore the key developments across major markets, from the bustling US Gulf to the more tranquil Southeast Asia, identifying trends and offering forecasts that will guide strategic decisions for the weeks ahead.

Handysize Sector Overview: Navigating Regional Currents

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)

The US Gulf market is riding a wave of positive momentum, driven by consistent cargo flows and tight vessel availability. Though the week began with a lull in activity, it quickly regained traction as new cargoes emerged. This shift points to a cautiously optimistic outlook, supported by the buildup of September supply. Owners and operators can expect a steady flow of fixtures, with the market poised for moderate growth in the coming week.

East Coast South America (ECSA)

The ECSA region has seen a remarkable performance in recent weeks, with activity levels remaining robust and tonnage lists staying tight. Of particular note, the northern portion of the region has seen a surge in demand, with October cargoes already in the mix, keeping the sentiment firmly bullish. For those with vessels opening in ECSA, optimism is set to continue into the next cycle, with favorable conditions expected.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE)

Northern Europe has experienced a shift in market dynamics, with rates moving in favor of vessel owners. This change is largely attributed to increased demand from the East Coast of the US, which has absorbed a significant number of vessels, maintaining a healthy balance between supply and demand. For vessels opening in the Continent, the outlook is positive, with good prospects for continued activity next week.

Mediterranean

The Mediterranean market has encountered some headwinds in recent weeks, primarily due to heightened competition among vessel owners and limited cargo availability. While the Western Mediterranean has shown more resilience, with owners able to secure higher rates, the Eastern Mediterranean remains under pressure. For the immediate future, the market is expected to remain flat, with little indication of significant shifts in either direction.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)

The MEG/India market remains largely unchanged, with rates holding steady throughout the week. Although a few vessels were fixed midweek, these deals did not significantly alter the overall market sentiment. As we look toward next week, the outlook remains balanced, with no major fluctuations expected. For now, the market in this region continues to offer stable, if not spectacular, opportunities.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)

Southeast Asia and the Far East region have faced a tougher week, with both the northern and southern sectors showing signs of stagnation. Despite some activity in the Australian market, overall sentiment remains weak. The overabundance of tonnage, coupled with a lack of significant new demand, has led to a soft market. In the short term, further corrections are expected, and the outlook remains pessimistic unless a new catalyst for demand emerges.

Ultramax Sector Overview: Riding the Tides of Change

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)

The Ultramax sector in the US Gulf has experienced an uptick in activity, with fixture volumes on the rise. The focus has been largely on voyages to the West Coast, where premiums are being paid for timely deliveries. The strong demand in this segment points to a firm outlook for the upcoming week, with owners likely to see continued opportunities in the short term.

East Coast South America (ECSA)

The market for Ultramax vessels in ECSA has shown strong demand for front-haul trips, supported by the solid performance of Northern and West African routes. However, Transatlantic (TA) trips have failed to capture the interest of owners, leaving the market somewhat unbalanced. Nonetheless, the overall sentiment remains optimistic, and the region should continue to provide opportunities for those willing to navigate the current dynamics.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE)

The Northern European Ultramax market has softened due to a lack of fresh cargoes and an increase in available capacity. This oversupply of tonnage has created a more competitive environment, with vessel owners seeking a push in demand to rebalance the market. In the short term, the outlook is subdued, and vessels opening in the region will need to stay agile to secure fixtures.

Mediterranean

The Mediterranean Ultramax market has painted a mixed picture. While the Western Mediterranean remains stable, the Eastern Mediterranean has shown more promise, fueled by strong demand from the Black Sea. This has led to a generally positive sentiment for the coming week, with some vessels likely to capitalize on these opportunities.

South Africa

The South African Ultramax market has held up well, driven by stable supply levels and an influx of coal cargoes. With demand expected to remain healthy into next month, the sentiment in this region is bullish. Owners can expect continued stability and favorable conditions, with the market likely to remain solid in the week ahead.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)

The MEG/India sector has maintained a steady pace, with local and West African trips continuing to dominate. The balance between tonnage and demand has kept the market stable, and there is little indication of major shifts in the near term. This neutrality has led to a more balanced outlook for the coming week, with opportunities continuing to emerge at a steady rate.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)

The Southeast Asia/FE Ultramax market has faced some challenges, with soft sentiment and rate corrections occurring across both the northern and southern sectors. Markets such as Indonesia, Australia, and NOPAC have shown limited activity, leading to an accumulation of tonnage. Further rate corrections are expected in the near future, and the outlook remains cautious for the short term.

Looking Ahead: Steering Through Uncertainty

The global shipping market is navigating a complex sea of shifting tides, with each region presenting unique challenges and opportunities. While markets like the US Gulf and East Coast South America remain strong, others, such as Southeast Asia and Northern Europe, are grappling with softer conditions.

As we approach the final quarter of 2025, adaptability will be key for shipowners and operators. With fluctuating demand, regional imbalances, and changing geopolitical factors influencing the market, the ability to adjust quickly to new conditions will determine which players thrive in this environment.

For those able to read the currents and react swiftly, the next few months could provide lucrative opportunities. However, for those unprepared for the shifting tides, the challenges may prove more difficult to navigate.

The shipping world continues to turn, and only those who can adjust their sails in response to the market's ever-changing winds will chart a successful course forward.

Disclaimer:

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute and  investment or legal advice. The content presented herein is based on market observations and trends as of the publication date and is subject to change. The views expressed reflect the author's analysis and opinions, which may differ from those of other market participants or organizations.