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Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions pose significant threats

On 22nd of October the United Nations Conference On Trade And Development (UNCTAD) took place. The conference forecasted continued growth in maritime trade, driven by demand for bulk commodities, gas, oil, and containerized trade, but despite positive prospects, several downside risks, including the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties, could impact the growth trajectory. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions pose significant threats. Increased tensions could lead to supply shocks in global commodity markets, particularly affecting oil and grain shipping routes. The ongoing war in Ukraine and the challenges faced by the Suez Canal and Red Sea routes could disrupt trade flows and drive-up prices in the near future. Economic factors can also influence maritime trade. The medium-term outlook is influenced by both downside and upside factors. Downside risks include a sluggish recovery in major global markets, tight monetary policies, and trade tensions. Upside factors include a projected recovery in global trade, strong export performance in major Asian economies, and potential interest rate cuts in the United States.

The relationship between maritime trade and global GDP has evolved. While maritime trade volumes have generally grown almost as fast as the global GDP in recent years (in 2023, maritime trade volumes grew by 2.4 % and GDP output grew by 2.7%), this correlation has been changing. Factors such as trade protectionism, regionalization, and the reshoring of production have contributed to this shift. China and Western nations are prioritizing domestic energy resilience. China is expanding renewable energy, while the U.S. and EU are implementing policies to reduce fossil fuel imports. To support domestic industries, trade measures like tariffs and subsidies are being used. These policies aim to protect local producers and mitigate international competition, potentially impacting global trade and maritime transport. According to UNCTAD, the future of maritime trade depends on a complex interplay of factors. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and structural changes in the global economy will continue to shape the maritime trade landscape. While the outlook remains positive, the ability of maritime trade to maintain its growth trajectory will depend on how these factors evolve.

A few days later, the resuming attacks on merchant ships in Ukrainian ports come to confirm the UNCTAD’s prediction that war in Ukraine still disrupts trade flows and pose a significant risk for seaborne trade growth. Since September 2024, five vessels have been struck by Russian missiles, highlighting the ongoing dangers faced by maritime trade in the region. These attacks could disrupt 1% of the world's dry bulk exports, leading to a potential rise in food prices. Ukraine's grain exports remain crucial despite challenges. Despite facing Russian attacks, Ukraine has continued to export grains and other agricultural products through a coastal corridor. However, the reliance on this corridor, which is subject to limited sea routes and potential missile threats, makes Ukrainian exports vulnerable. The European Commission, Ukraine, and neighboring countries have been working to revitalize trade in the region, focusing on the operational capacity of Ukrainian ports. The world's reliance on Ukrainian grains has decreased, but replacing its volumes would still be challenging. The limited number of large maize exporters and the strained global wheat supply make Ukraine's exports particularly important.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

Following the previous weeks high interest on the Capesize sector, this week, another 14-year-old, the “Hero” - 178K/2010 SWS, found new owners for USD 26.5 mills. Moving down the sizes, this week, we noted an interest for modern Ultramax, with the Scrubber fitted “Greenwich Pioneer” - 64K/2020 Nantong Xiangyu changing hands for excess USD 32 mills basis delivery upon completion of her TC in Q1 2025. Moreover, Greek buyers acquired the Scrubber fitted “August Oldendorff” - 61K/2015 JMU and the “Alwine Oldendorff”- 61K/2014 JMU for USD 50 mills enbloc. A strong preference was also observed for modern Handysizes this week, with clients of Denholm acquiring the “Blue Ocean” - 41K/2023 JNS for excess USD 30 mills. Furthermore, the OHBS “Ultra Bosque” - 40K/2020 JNS was sold for USD 27.5 mills to Turkish buyers, while Turkish buyers also acquired the Ice Class 1C “Interlink Nobility” - 40K/2017 Taizhou Kouan for USD 25.25 mills. Last but not least, the “Pos Oceania” - 28K/2012 Imabari for USD 10.5 mills.

Wet:

On the tanker S&P activity, the interest was mainly focused across Panamax/LR1 sector. Greek buyers acquired the LR1 “Fulham Road” - 75K/2013 STX for USD 44.6 mills. 3x Ice Class 1A Panamaxes, the “Ice Energy”- 70K/2006 Onomichi, the “Ice Victory” - 70K/2006 Onomichi and the “Ice Fighter”- 70K/2006 Onomichi were sold for USD 72 mills enbloc. Last but not least, the LR1 dirty trading “Octa Lune” - 73K/2005 HHI was sold for low USD 20’s mills to Chinese buyers.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.