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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 7th February 2025

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
TMC Commercial Director

Handysize Market Overview

• US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC): The Handysize market showed a more optimistic tone this week, with increased activity and fixture volumes. However, the persistent oversupply of vessels tempers long-term optimism, and it remains to be seen whether this demand trend will continue into next week.

• East Coast South America (ECSA): The South Atlantic market began the week on a slow note, but the arrival of fresh cargoes quickly absorbed many of the larger vessels, pushing rates higher. There is a cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming week.
• Continent: The market experienced downward pressure on rates as intense competition between vessel owners forced many to accept lower offers for the few available cargoes. Unless demand improves, the market is expected to weaken further next week.
• Mediterranean: A boost in demand helped stabilize the market, pushing rates slightly higher. However, vessel supply remains elevated, and a steady cargo flow is essential for further recovery in the short term.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): Activity in the MEG/India market picked up, with rates showing signs of improvement for prompt tonnage. Spot owners, however, had to adjust their expectations and offer discounts. Early-week demand could set the tone for the market in the following week.
• Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia / FEast): The market gradually gained momentum with increased cargo flows from both southern and northern regions. However, many vessels remain spot-listed, suggesting that the market still has some way to go before full recovery. The upward trend is expected to continue next week.

Ultramax Market Overview

• US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC): The Ultramax market appears to have bottomed out, with a tightening tonnage list and stable cargo flows. Positive momentum is anticipated at the start of next week.
• East Coast South America (ECSA): The resurgence of the Asian market positively impacted the Ultramax sector, with a strong flow of front-haul cargoes early in the week. Later, Transatlantic cargoes took over, maintaining the market's firm tone. The market is expected to stay active next week.
• Continent: The market lost ground due to weak demand, with available cargoes discussed at significantly lower rates and on an APS basis. Current signs indicate no improvement in the market for the coming week.
• Mediterranean: Sentiment in the Mediterranean improved slightly, with marginally higher demand and small rate increases. Continued momentum in cargo activity will be necessary for further improvements next week.
• South Africa (SAFR): The South African market began the week on a strong note, with rising activity and a tightening vessel supply. Fewer ballasters from India further supported the market's firm tone. This trajectory is expected to continue next week.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): The market showed signs of life in the Gulf and West Coast, driven by steady cargo flows. However, the influx of Chinese vessels increased supply, and the Eastern side remained quiet. Next week will reveal whether the uptick in activity will translate into rate increases.
• Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia / FEast): After a slow start, the market picked up pace in the latter half of the week, with more cargoes and rising rates. A steady week is expected, with consistent demand ahead.

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice