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Brief report and predictions for next week for handy and supramax sizes 6th December 2024

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
TMC Commercial Director

Handysize Market Overview
• US Gulf/US East Coast (USG/USEC): An oversupply of tonnage drove rates downward as limited demand failed to absorb available capacity. A bearish outlook is expected to persist into the coming week.
• East Coast South America (ECSA): Tight vessel availability supported a shift in sentiment favoring owners. Notably, stronger demand was observed in southern ECSA compared to the north, creating a rate disparity. A balanced market is anticipated for the following week.
• Continent: The market experienced limited activity, proceeding sideways with minimal cargo movement (e.g., scrap and fertilizers) towards the Eastern Mediterranean. No significant changes are expected next week.
• Mediterranean: Charterers benefited from a surplus of vessel capacity and a short cargo list. Discussions have begun regarding New Year shipments, as current rate levels are attractive for charterers. As the holiday season approaches, no major developments are expected until year-end.
• Middle East Gulf/India (MEG/India): The week was uneventful, with participants showing reluctance to act, likely awaiting further market corrections. Rates are projected to remain steady over the coming week.
• Southeast Asia/Far East (SE Asia/FEast): Activity picked up in some northern areas, bolstered by mid-month tenders. However, competition from larger vessel classes continued to exert downward pressure on rates. With vessel supply tightening, the market is expected to remain firm in the week ahead.

Supramax Market Overview
• US Gulf (USG): The market benefited from Transatlantic and Intergulf cargoes, as Fronthaul options remained scarce. Rates are expected to hold firm next week, though a rise in vessel availability may occur as year-end approaches.
• East Coast South America (ECSA): The week began sluggishly with increased vessel presence, but later saw a surge in cargo volumes, reducing available capacity and fostering optimism for the week ahead.
• Continent: The market remained flat, dominated by limited scrap cargoes. These were insufficient to support rates, which saw further declines. Some owners are considering repositioning vessels across the Atlantic for better prospects. It remains uncertain whether participants will rush to secure cargoes before the festive period or shift into holiday mode.
• Mediterranean: Oversupply continued to suppress rates, with minimal cargo movement swiftly absorbed. Western Mediterranean conditions remained comparatively stronger than the East. No substantial improvements are foreseen for the upcoming week.
• South Africa (SAFR): The market maintained its upward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace. Vessel supply remained tight, but cargo flow decreased compared to the previous week. Optimism persists cautiously for the near term.
• Middle East Gulf/India (MEG/India): A short trading week, due to regional holidays ( 2nd & 3rd Dec ) , ended with rates holding steady in the absence of significant activity. An uptick in demand is required to stimulate rate increases next week.
• Southeast Asia/Far East (SE Asia/FEast): An increase in spot tonnage put further pressure on the market, with quiet conditions in NOPAC and Australia. However, Indonesia maintained balance, with stable rates. The market is expected to remain flat next week.

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice