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Dry bulk markets: Between regional resilience and a shifting freight tide

Ultramax & Handysize | Weekly Market Report and Forward Outlook

Week ending 6 November 2026

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant-Chartering Executive & TMC MARITIME Commercial Director

EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW — A MARKET OF CONTRASTING CURRENTS

The dry bulk market closed the week with considerable regional divergence, as the Atlantic's larger segments corrected while selected Handysize and Pacific markets maintained their resilience. The South Atlantic continued to benefit from exceptionally tight prompt Handysize availability, the US Gulf showed signs of stabilisation, and the Continent and Mediterranean remained subdued amid limited fresh enquiry and seasonal disruption.

The Indian Ocean and South Africa softened marginally under the influence of geopolitical uncertainty, bunker movements and the approaching Diwali holidays, whereas the Far East remained comparatively strong, supported by Chittagong-bound cargoes, healthy regional activity and limited availability of suitably positioned vessels.

An increasingly important feature is the divergence between prompt and forward employment. Immediate tonnage scarcity continues to support spot earnings in selected regions, while charterers remain reluctant to commit to longer periods at current levels, particularly with Q1 forward expectations considerably below prevailing spot-market earnings.

The market is therefore likely to remain regionalised rather than move in a single direction. Selective strength should persist where cargo demand meets restricted tonnage availability, with vessel positioning, specification and employment flexibility remaining decisive to achievable returns.

SOUTH ATLANTIC — PROMPT SCARCITY PROVIDES THE ANCHOR

Ultramax

Transatlantic and fronthaul rates, including West Coast South America, corrected during the first half of the week, with fixtures concluded below previous levels. Sentiment improved towards the close following fresh cargo enquiry, although much of the business remained subject to subsale. Exceptionally firm Handysize demand absorbed part of the available Supramax tonnage, while the recovery in Panamax earnings provided additional support to the larger sizes from the opposite direction. Nevertheless, some prompt tonnage still needs to be absorbed before a sustained recovery can develop.

Handysize

The market remained divided between prompt and deferred positions. Mid-November cargoes continued to attract firm rates, supported by extremely limited spot availability. Despite initially cautious sentiment following the correction in larger sizes, owners maintained their rate expectations, with prompt strength increasingly influencing forward pricing. Softer bunker prices could place some pressure on deferred dates next week, but the immediate tonnage shortage should restrict any meaningful correction. The short-term outlook remains firm, with adjustments likely to be gradual.

US GULF — STABILISATION WITH SELECTIVE UPSIDE

Ultramax

The midweek Transatlantic rate increase proved temporary, with levels returning towards USD 30,000–31,000 APS. Owners remain focused on firm fronthaul employment, although some are prepared to consider longer-duration clean voyages at rates beginning with USD 20,000. The US East Coast remains relatively well supplied with cargoes against available tonnage, offering scope for a modest improvement in Transatlantic business next week, provided enquiry translates into actual fixtures.

Handysize

The market is recovering following last week's softer performance, as increased local enquiry and North Brazil demand draw prompt vessels away from the Gulf and Caribbean. The US East Coast remains firmer due to fewer available ships, although a sustained Q4 rally has yet to emerge. Competition from larger vessels remains a constraint, particularly while Supramax earnings are weak and high bunker costs encourage larger cargo intake where port restrictions permit. The near-term outlook is broadly sideways: improving local demand offers support, but meaningful upside requires a recovery in larger-vessel earnings to ease competition.

WEST COAST SOUTH AMERICA — NOVEMBER PRESSURE, DECEMBER OPPORTUNITY

Ultramax

Mixed signals from East Coast South America have contributed to a modest decline in rates. Salt demand remains limited, with only one identified requirement and little fresh voyage activity, while most mid-November fronthaul business has already been covered. Spot owners can still achieve reasonable returns by ballasting towards East Coast South America, although lower bunker prices may encourage charterers to delay decisions. December looks more constructive, with several time-charter requirements and first-half fronthaul demand expected. Operators may seek to secure suitable vessels early, particularly where itineraries are sufficiently defined.

Handysize

Tonnage availability continues to increase, while most November cargoes, including the latest month-end liftings, have already been covered. The remaining November deliveries therefore face the prospect of a sharper correction. East Coast South America could offer an alternative for owners prepared to ballast in anticipation of first-half December cargoes. For the remainder of November, the outlook is distinctly softer, making positioning and timing particularly important.

CONTINENT — QUIET ACTIVITY, RELATIVELY STABLE RATES

Ultramax

Hamburg's Eisbein week reduced activity, although some fresh cargo enquiries and vessel positions emerged. Overall fundamentals remained broadly unchanged, with reasonably firm demand for mid-November dates and tonnage availability concentrated mainly from the second week onwards. The market remains balanced, with owners and charterers maintaining stable expectations.

Handymax

Only a handful of fixtures were concluded, and sentiment became increasingly cautious. Nevertheless, prompt availability proved tighter than initially anticipated, preventing a meaningful correction. Despite the quieter market and softer undertone, rates remained relatively stable, with restricted nearby supply providing some protection against weaker demand.

MEDITERRANEAN & BLACK SEA — TONNAGE OUTRUNS DEMAND

Ultramax

The absence of meaningful first-half November demand, combined with increasing vessel availability, placed rates under mounting pressure. The supply-demand balance is becoming less favourable to owners, and last-done levels are likely to face further downward pressure unless fresh enquiry emerges. The immediate outlook remains soft.

Handymax

The Eisbein event significantly disrupted activity across the region. Although demand improved marginally at the beginning of the week, few fixtures were concluded, broadly in line with last-done levels. The market therefore remains largely unchanged, without evidence of either a meaningful recovery or substantial correction.

MIDDLE EAST GULF, INDIAN OCEAN & SOUTH AFRICA — PREMIUM EMPLOYMENT AMID UNCERTAINTY

Ultramax

The Middle East Gulf remained stable around last-done levels, although waiting times at Oman and Fujairah remain relatively high. The Indian Ocean softened slightly, with operators cautious following the US midterm election results and anticipating reduced activity during India's approaching Diwali holidays. Geopolitical uncertainty across the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea continues to influence commercial decisions.

On India's West Coast, a spot Supramax fixed at USD 14,000 APS for Bangladesh, while Ultramax salt cargoes towards Southeast Asia attracted bids in the mid teens APS. For Salalah–India employment, Ultramax vessels are fixing around USD 20,000 DOP following two to three days of ballast; comparable Supramax levels are achievable APS, subject to additional war-risk insurance premiums. Another Ultramax secured a mid-to-high teens DOP for a West Coast India–Indonesia/India coal voyage.

Despite existing trading restrictions, more vessels are prepared to transit the Strait of Hormuz for better-paying premium employment, although insurance and operational exposure remain important considerations.

East Coast India performed comparatively better on Southeast Asian demand, with Ultramax vessels achieving low-to-mid USD 20,000s DOP for Indonesia–India coal voyages and Supramaxes securing mid-to-high teens for comparable employment.

South Africa showed signs of moderation, with rates under pressure. Manganese ore and coal exports to Pakistan and India remain the principal cargo drivers, while November fronthaul enquiry is limited. Initial interest is emerging for December and January coal shipments, although charterers remain cautious. Recent Supramax fixtures included Richards Bay–East Coast India coal at USD 22,000 daily hire plus USD 220,000 lumpsum ballast bonus APS, and a Pakistan-bound voyage at USD 24,000 daily plus USD 240,000 lumpsum ballast bonus. A Chinese Supramax offering Singapore–Japan is seeking very high teens plus an equivalent gross ballast bonus.

Premium employment remains achievable, but owners must assess positioning, insurance exposure and net voyage economics rather than headline earnings alone.

Handysize

Limited cargo demand and a growing tonnage list kept the market broadly flat to slightly softer. Without a meaningful improvement in fresh enquiry, the near-term outlook remains cautious.

FAR EAST & SOUTHEAST ASIA — THE PACIFIC HOLDS ITS COURSE

Ultramax

The northern market remained firm, with Chittagong-bound cargoes commanding the strongest premiums and owners defending their positions across long-haul and period employment. North Pacific–Chittagong Supramax business achieved USD 27,000–28,000, against USD 22,750–24,000 for North Pacific–South East Asia voyages.

Mediterranean offers reached the low-to-mid USD 30,000s, with Gulf of Aden costs of USD 120,000–200,000. A Supramax open at Nantong fixed at USD 35,000, while West Africa business strengthened into the mid-USD 20,000s. Period indications stood at USD 25,000–25,500 for four-to-seven-month employment, approximately USD 22,000 for one year and USD 18,000–19,000 for three years.

Backhaul demand remained steady for vessels capable of carrying 2 x 25-tonne coils and deck cargo from South Korea and North China towards the US Gulf and Mediterranean via the Gulf of Aden.

The southern market began firmly before easing marginally. Reported fixtures included a Singapore-open Supramax at USD 27,500 for Indonesia–East Coast India–Bangladesh and an Ultramax at USD 25,000 for Broome–China. Chittagong-bound clinker continued to command attractive premiums, although slightly below earlier peaks, with South China-open offers around USD 28,500 and Phu My-open offers approximately USD 27,000.

Shorter-haul Indonesian coal business softened, with Singapore-open vessels offering USD 18,000–19,500 for Indonesia–South China and Port Klang tonnage down to USD 16,500 DOP for CJK–North China, against approximately USD 21,000 the previous week. Period indications remained USD 23,000–25,000 for four-to-six months, with a five-to-seven-month offer around USD 25,000; Australian round voyages achieved USD 23,000–25,500.

The Pacific remains fundamentally constructive, although the correction in shorter-haul coal demonstrates that strength is not uniform across all routes.

Handysize — Far East

Northern and southern Far East activity remains strong, supported by southbound employment, West Coast India demand and backhaul business. Larger Handysize vessels achieve around USD 20,000 for southbound voyages, with deck cargo premiums, while smaller units target approximately USD 18,000 against charterers' indications in the USD 17,000s.

West Coast India fixtures generally conclude in the mid-USD 20,000s and high teems BSS redelivery Penang. Backhaul owners target the low-to-mid USD 20,000s, while the latest reported Handysize fixture to West Coast Central America was approximately USD 21,500 DOP. Owners remain reluctant to discount aggressively as year-end approaches.

Period demand remains firm for modern, fuel-efficient larger Handysize vessels, with four-to-six-month employment discussed in the high teens to USD 20,000s. Firm spot earnings and demand for quality tonnage continue to support owners' expectations, leaving the period market well underpinned.

SOUTHEAST ASIA & AUSTRALIA — HANDYSIZE FINDS A STEADY BEARING

The regional Handysize market remains healthy, with stable and firm rates, moderate enquiry and sufficient cargo flow to support well-positioned tonnage. Several mid-November Australian cargoes provide forward visibility, while the balance between demand and available ships continues to favour Australia-friendly vessels.

Smaller Handysize vessels achieve USD 13,750–14,500/day for Pacific round voyages. 32,000 dwt vessels achieve similar levels for Indonesia–Southeast Asia and Indonesia–Far East voyages, DOP Singapore. Larger 38,000 dwt vessels earn USD 15,000–15,500/day for non-Australian round voyages, while clean, Australia-friendly vessels command USD 17,000–18,500/day for Australian round voyages from Singapore. Coastal employment is estimated at USD 24,000–25,000/day.

Smaller 32,000–34,000 dwt log-fitted vessels achieve approximately USD 16,000–16,500/day for leg business, reflecting the relative scarcity of suitable loggers. The market remains positional: Australia-friendly tonnage enjoys a clear advantage, while non-Australian ships may need greater flexibility according to location and next opening. Backhaul and period employment remain resilient, particularly for quality larger Handysize vessels.

The outlook into mid-November is firm, with limited downside pressure. A significant upward movement, however, will require stronger fresh enquiry rather than simply the continuation of existing cargo flow.

PERIOD MARKET — THE WIDENING GAP BETWEEN SPOT AND FORWARD

The Atlantic period market remains cautious across both vessel sizes as charterers look beyond current fourth-quarter earnings towards a softer first quarter.

Ultramax

One-year period activity remains limited as charterers resist committing at prevailing Q4 levels, particularly with Q1 paper trading considerably below spot earnings. The gap between owners' expectations and charterers' bids continues to restrict fixtures, with neither side showing sufficient willingness to compromise.

Handysize

The same divergence characterises the Handysize period market. Charterers are targeting the USD 15,000s and above for one-year sub-delivery employment, while owners continue to seek USD 16,000 and above. Expectations of materially lower Q1 earnings are encouraging charterers to remain disciplined. Until the gap narrows, period activity is likely to remain selective.

FORWARD OUTLOOK — POSITIONING FOR THE NEXT FREIGHT CYCLE

The remainder of 2026 is likely to be characterised by regional divergence rather than a uniform market movement. In the Atlantic, tight prompt Handysize availability should support the South Atlantic, although larger vessels require further cargo absorption before a sustained recovery. The US Gulf should remain broadly stable, with modest Ultramax Transatlantic improvement possible, while West Coast South America Handysize prospects remain weak for the balance of November but could improve with first-half December employment.

The Continent should remain balanced, with limited activity and relatively stable rates, whereas the Mediterranean and Black Sea face greater downside risk from accumulating tonnage and insufficient fresh demand.

The Indian Ocean and South Africa are expected to remain cautious, with geopolitical uncertainty, insurance costs and seasonal demand influencing fixtures. Premium employment will remain available selectively, while December and January coal programmes could provide some improvement.

The Far East and Southeast Asia should remain among the more resilient regions, supported by Chittagong-bound cargoes, southbound employment and backhaul demand, particularly for modern and well-positioned vessels. Shorter-haul coal business may remain more competitive. Southeast Asia/Australia Handysize should also retain its firm footing, supported by manageable tonnage availability, Australian cargo requirements and demand for log-fitted vessels, although stronger fresh enquiry will be necessary for significant upside.

In the Atlantic period market, charterers are likely to remain cautious towards one-year employment while Q1 forward expectations remain below spot earnings. Owners must balance the attraction of maintaining spot exposure against the security of longer-term employment, with quality, fuel efficiency and trading flexibility remaining important differentiators.

STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE — JUDGEMENT BEYOND THE HEADLINE RATE

The principal commercial challenge in the weeks ahead will be to identify where cargo availability, vessel positioning, voyage economics and forward exposure combine to offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns. In an increasingly fragmented market, understanding the underlying direction of cargo flows is more valuable than reacting solely to the latest reported fixture.

Owners will continue to benefit from commercial flexibility without sacrificing rate discipline, while chartering decisions must be assessed on net voyage economics rather than headline daily hire, particularly where bunker consumption, ballast requirements, waiting time and additional insurance premiums materially influence the final result.

The appropriate strategy is therefore selective and forward-looking: protect earnings where prompt fundamentals are favourable, avoid unnecessary exposure to weakening regions and secure attractive forward employment whenever the risk-return balance justifies it.

The broader outlook remains one of regional divergence, not universal correction. Although certain segments will encounter pressure, underlying demand for appropriately positioned and competitively specified Ultramax and Handysize vessels should continue to generate meaningful opportunities through year-end. Ultimately, the strongest commercial results will belong to those able to anticipate where the next cargo will emerge, position the right vessel accordingly and assess the true economic value of the employment.

Legal Disclaimer

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.