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Navigating a selective market: Freight resilience, regional imbalances and the road ahead

Weekly Market Report & Forward Outlook | Ultramax & Handysize | Week ending 23 October 2026

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant-Chartering Executive & TMC MARITIME  Commercial Director

Executive overview — A market of two currents

The dry bulk market presented a mixed picture this week, with resilient earnings in several regions contrasting with emerging weakness across parts of the Atlantic. Ultramax vessels continue to benefit from firm Pacific employment, attractive backhaul opportunities and sustained period interest, while Handysize markets remain supported wherever prompt tonnage is scarce. Yet the balance is shifting in the US East Coast, parts of the South Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Southeast Asia, where growing vessel lists and softer cargo enquiry are beginning to weigh on owners’ negotiating power.

The defining feature of the present market is the growing divide between regions where cargo demand absorbs available tonnage and those where supply is beginning to outpace requirements. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remains a material operational consideration, while weaker forward-market signals are encouraging greater caution in period negotiations. Looking ahead, a uniform market movement appears unlikely. Well-positioned vessels should preserve their earning power, but ships facing less favourable trading conditions may have to accept lower rates to secure employment.

South Atlantic — Firm foundations beneath a gentler swell

Ultramax: Transatlantic resilience meets softer fronthaul demand

The South Atlantic remained broadly flat, although sentiment eased slightly from the previous week as fresh enquiry from South Brazil remained limited and the list of available tonnage lengthened. Transatlantic employment continues to command healthy levels, but fronthaul business has lost momentum, partly because weaker Panamax rates are drawing cargoes away from Ultramax vessels. Conversely, the firmer Handysize market could push more smaller cargoes towards the Supramax segment next week, offering some support. West Africa remains reasonably balanced, although China-bound fronthaul rates have softened slightly.

Handysize: Tight prompt supply keeps owners in command

Handysize conditions remained firm, led by West Coast South America and North Brazil, where sustained demand continues to meet limited nearby supply. Potential ballasters from Morocco are being absorbed by Continent cargoes, while the anticipated North Coast South America supply has yet to materialise, despite reports of softer US Gulf levels. The immediate balance therefore remains in owners’ favour, although the durability of this strength will depend on whether fresh demand continues at its current pace and whether lower US Gulf rates eventually attract additional ballasters into the basin.

US Gulf — Strong earnings, but the Atlantic tide may turn

Ultramax: A growing tonnage list threatens the balance

The week began with little activity on either the cargo or vessel side and ended in much the same fashion, although available tonnage continued to increase. The US East Coast is particularly short of fresh cargo opportunities, making it increasingly likely that some vessels will ballast towards the US Gulf and North Coast South America unless enquiry improves. Rates remain strong, especially for India-bound voyages and dirty cargoes to the East Mediterranean, but a modest correction is likely next week without an injection of fresh demand.

Handysize: Late-week activity restores confidence

The US Gulf Handysize market began the week quietly, with limited new cargo enquiry and little movement in rates, before activity gathered pace as owners secured employment on transatlantic and inter-Caribbean routes. Most spot vessels have now been fixed, leaving the market in better shape than at the outset. Period demand remained subdued, with only a handful of orders, while voyage cargoes provided the principal source of fixing momentum. With prompt tonnage largely absorbed, the outlook for the coming week is more constructive, although continued improvement will depend on fresh cargo volumes.

Handysize: Late-week activity restores confidence

The US Gulf Handysize market began the week quietly, with limited new cargo enquiry and little movement in rates, before activity gathered pace as owners secured employment on transatlantic and inter-Caribbean routes. Most spot vessels have now been fixed, leaving the market in better shape than at the outset. Period demand remained subdued, with only a handful of orders, while voyage cargoes provided the principal source of fixing momentum. With prompt tonnage largely absorbed, the outlook for the coming week is more constructive, although continued improvement will depend on fresh cargo volumes.

West Coast South America — Strong earnings meet the test of endurance

Ultramax: Near annual highs, with momentum to watch

The West Coast South America Ultramax market maintained a firm underlying tone, supported by robust North Pacific returns and sustained demand from the East Coast of South America. Freight levels remain close to annual highs on both fronthaul and backhaul routes, despite relatively modest fresh fixing activity. Concentrate cargoes remain lacklustre, while salt continues to provide employment opportunities against persistent uncertainty over Panama Canal transit. Owners remain confident in their positions, although momentum could moderate as outstanding October requirements are progressively covered.

Handysize: Prompt scarcity supports the next round of negotiations

The Handysize market remains firm, with availability tightening further after the previous week’s active fixing. Most end-October cargo requirements have now been covered, shifting attention towards early November. Prompt supply remains restricted, but vessels opening later may encounter greater charterer resistance to recently established rates. Strong Ultramax earnings continue to underpin Handysize sentiment, although the unusually wide earnings differential between the two segments remains a notable feature of the market.

Continent — A steady course, with limited room for negotiation

Ultramax: Supply and demand remain in equilibrium

The Continent Ultramax market was broadly flat, following a slow start before activity improved slightly. Cargo enquiry remained firm, particularly for early November dates, while fresh tonnage eased the tighter supply position seen at the beginning of the week. Bid and offer levels were openly circulated, but pricing changed little as available vessels continued to match demand reasonably well. For now, the market remains balanced and rates are holding steady.

Handymax: Owners retain leverage, but charterers are testing the water

The Continent Handymax market remained flat to firm, with a steady flow of grain opportunities but relatively few completed fixtures. Charterers remain reluctant to meet owners’ higher expectations, leaving a persistent gap between bids and offers. Tonnage increased slightly, and although owners generally retained the upper hand, some fixtures were concluded below previous levels, partly owing to competition from Western Mediterranean vessels. Owners continue to seek a premium for US backhaul and scrap cargoes, although vessel positioning and the suitability of individual employment opportunities remain decisive, with discounts still possible where the match is right.

Mediterranean & Black Sea — Early strength gives way to a quieter sea

Ultramax: Rapid cargo coverage removes the upward pressure

The Mediterranean Ultramax market opened firmly, with below-average tonnage availability and healthy late-October demand encouraging owners to raise their offers. However, substantial cargo coverage on Tuesday quickly reduced the remaining requirements for late October and early November. Activity subsequently slowed, rates fell significantly and sentiment turned more bearish as the initial momentum faded.

Handymax: Black Sea demand provides local support

Black Sea cargoes led Mediterranean activity from the beginning of the week, producing a modest improvement in local rates, particularly on intra-Mediterranean voyages. East Mediterranean activity remained limited despite a broadly unchanged tonnage list, while the Western Mediterranean saw little business. Some vessels consequently began considering employment on the Continent and North Brazil routes where opportunities were available. The market remains uneven, with local pockets of strength but insufficient momentum to support a wider recovery.

Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa — Earnings weighed against risk

Ultramax: Security concerns remain central to the employment equation

Reports indicate that non-Iranian Middle Eastern oil exports have risen above pre-war levels, with vessels continuing to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite an increase in reported attacks on ships in the area. Fujairah bunker prices remained broadly unchanged from the previous week. Nevertheless, continuing uncertainty across the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea means that owners must weigh security risks and additional costs carefully when assessing employment. Indian Ocean conditions remained largely flat.

On the Salalah–West Coast India route, Supramax vessels are fixing in the mid-USD 10,000s per day, delivered DOP West Coast India, while Ultramax rates stand in the high USD 10,000s per day. For Atlantic-bound backhaul voyages, charterers are indicating the mid-USD 10,000s per day, against owners’ expectations in the high USD 10,000s per day.

Activity remains slow on routes from the Red Sea towards India and China. For voyages from non-Saudi ports to India and China, Supramax owners are seeking the low USD 20,000s per day, while charterers have improved their indications to the very high USD 10,000s per day. The East Coast India market has improved for Supramax vessels, with coastal voyages to the West Coast India achieving the low USD 20,000s per day; Ultramax vessels are obtaining better levels on similar runs. East Coast India–China iron ore rates remain unchanged from the previous week, at the low-to-mid USD 10,000s per day for Supramax and the mid-to-high USD 10,000s per day for Ultramax. Meanwhile, steady Red Sea cargo flows towards India and Bangladesh continue to provide an underlying source of support.

South Africa opened quietly, with limited activity and thin fresh enquiry. A couple of manganese ore tenders for China emerged for early November, while additional demand from Pakistan and the West Coast of India provided some employment opportunities. Nevertheless, prompt tonnage remains difficult to place, and competition from the East Coast of South America continues to restrict momentum. For the usual Port Elizabeth–China voyages, Ultramax owners are seeking approximately USD 28,000 per day plus a USD 280,000 gross ballast bonus. Some owners are also indicating rates in the low USD 20,000s per day, delivered DOP India, while charterers continue to target levels below USD 20,000 per day on the same delivery basis.

Handysize: Improving enquiry offsets a longer vessel list

The Handysize market began the week quietly but gained momentum as additional steel backhaul cargoes entered the market from India. The available tonnage list also lengthened, yet sentiment remained firm and rates moved sideways to slightly higher levels. The balance is therefore holding for now, although continued support will depend on whether the improved flow of cargoes can keep pace with available supply.

Far East & Southeast Asia — Pacific strength meets a more selective southern market

Ultramax: Backhaul demand anchors the northern market

The northern market remained active throughout the week, with steady North Pacific and backhaul employment supporting firm rates, while period interest also remained strong. Charterers’ bidding levels for backhaul voyages, particularly to the Mediterranean via the Gulf of Aden and to West Africa, showed no signs of easing. One Ultramax was reportedly fixed at USD 31,000 per day for a Mediterranean voyage, while a Supramax was heard fixed at USD 27,500 per day. Strong backhaul demand also supported rates to the US Gulf and both coasts of South America, with one Ultramax open in the Far East reportedly fixed at around USD 18,500 per day for Brazil.

North Pacific rates remained well supported, as owners continued to benefit from attractive backhaul and period alternatives. Most Ultramax owners were still seeking around USD 25,000 per day for North Pacific and Pacific round voyages, showing little willingness to lower their expectations. Short voyages to Bangladesh also attracted firm owner ideas, with one owner asking USD 33,000 per day for a slag cargo against charterers’ bids in the low USD 30,000s per day. Taken together, steady cargo flows, strong backhaul demand and active period interest kept the northern market on a firm footing.

In the south, conditions also remained relatively firm, although signs of easing became more apparent towards the end of the week. Owners’ expectations for Australian round voyages softened compared with the previous week: one Ultramax open in Thailand was seeking USD 20,000 per day, while another open in Singapore was targeting USD 26,000 per day. An Ultramax open in the Philippines was reportedly fixed at USD 25,000 per day for an Australian round voyage, confirming that earnings remained healthy despite the softer tone.

The balance was less favourable to owners on Indonesia–Southeast Asia and Pacific round voyages, where available tonnage exceeded fresh cargo enquiry and put pressure on rates. One Ultramax was heard fixed at USD 20,000 per day for an Indonesia–China voyage. Backhaul business, however, remained stronger, as charterers struggled to secure suitable ships and relatively few owners were willing to commit to longer Atlantic-bound voyages. One Ultramax open in Vietnam was reportedly fixed in the USD 20,000s per day for the US Gulf. Active period demand continued to provide additional support, leaving both the northern and southern markets in relatively healthy condition heading into the coming week.

Far East Handysize: Backhaul and period demand preserve earnings

The Far East Handysize market remained healthy, with most of the previous week’s levels carrying through. Although some prompt tonnage was available, larger Handysize vessels continued to achieve USD 18,000–19,000 per day, delivered DOP, for southbound voyages. Steel and deck-hatch cargoes remained important sources of support.

West Coast India voyages were broadly unchanged, with owners targeting the mid-USD 20,000s per day for single trips, against charterers’ ideas in the high USD 10,000s to low USD 20,000s per day. Reported fixtures stood at around USD 24,000 per day for single trips and USD 18,000–19,000 per day for voyages redelivering at Penang or Singapore.

Backhaul volumes remained healthy, particularly for steel cargoes. Larger Handysize owners were targeting USD 21,000–22,000 per day for Continent voyages and USD 23,000–24,000 per day for Mediterranean voyages. Fixtures were being concluded at around USD 20,000 per day to the Continent and in the low USD 21,000s per day to the Mediterranean. US Gulf voyages were being fixed at around USD 18,000 per day, while West Coast Central America trips achieved USD 21,000–22,000 per day. The period market also remained firm across short- and longer-term requirements following the Golden Week holiday, with fresh enquiry supporting five-to-seven-month employment at approximately USD 20,000–21,000 per day.

Southeast Asia & Australia Handysize: Limited enquiry caps the upside

The Southeast Asia and Australia Handysize market remained broadly flat, with limited fresh enquiry and rates easing slightly as tonnage became marginally long. Leg and short-period requirements remained available, but activity was moderate, while charterers increasingly used their own vessels to cover cargoes, limiting opportunities for open-market tonnage.

Smaller Handysize vessels continued to achieve USD 13,000–14,000 per day for Pacific round voyages, while 32,000 dwt vessels obtained similar levels for Indonesia–Southeast Asia and Indonesia–Far East voyages, delivered DOP Singapore. For larger ships, 38,000 dwt non-Australia round voyages stood at USD 15,000–15,500 per day, while clean Australian round voyages could command a premium of USD 17,000–18,500 per day from Singapore. Although few coastal fixtures were reported, fair value was estimated at around USD 20,000 per day.

The market remains uneven, with Australian-capable vessels better positioned, while non-Australian tonnage may need to accept shorter or less attractive employment to bridge gaps between openings. Supply is particularly tight for log-fitted ships, allowing suitable 32,000–34,000 dwt vessels to achieve USD 16,000–17,750 per day. Overall, the near-term outlook remains subdued: with fresh demand limited and tonnage slightly long, meaningful rate improvement appears unlikely unless cargo enquiry strengthens.

Period market — Spot strength and forward caution pull in opposite directions

Ultramax: Firm spot earnings, softer annual commitments

The Atlantic Ultramax period market has turned bearish for one-year employment, largely reflecting weakness in the forward paper market. Owners are seeking to capitalise on fourth-quarter strength, while charterers remain reluctant to commit at current levels. Spot rates have nevertheless continued to firm week on week, with short- to medium-term employment for sub-specification tonnage trading in the mid-USD 20,000s per day. First-quarter expectations remain closely aligned with Calendar 2027.

Handysize: The forward curve signals a more cautious horizon

The Atlantic Handysize period market has softened slightly, with limited charterer interest at owners’ fourth-quarter expectations. Owners generally target the USD 17,000s per day for one-year employment, while charterers remain around USD 16,000 per day, delivered sub-delivery. Calendar 2027 paper is trading approximately USD 4,000 per day below current fourth-quarter spot-market levels, highlighting the risk of extrapolating today’s earnings into longer-term commitments.

Forward outlook — Positioning, discipline and the value of flexibility

The coming weeks are likely to bring greater divergence between regions rather than a broad-based market reversal. Ultramax vessels should retain support in the Pacific and selected Indian Ocean trades, where backhaul demand, period interest and steady cargo flows underpin earnings. However, softer Atlantic fronthaul demand, a growing US Gulf tonnage list and weaker Mediterranean momentum point to selective downward pressure unless fresh cargoes emerge.

Handysize conditions should remain comparatively resilient in the South Atlantic and parts of the Far East, where restricted prompt supply continues to support owners. Southeast Asia and Australia, by contrast, face limited upside while enquiry remains subdued and charterers continue to use their own vessels. Across both segments, the discount in Calendar 2027 paper is a reminder that current spot strength should not automatically be carried forward into longer-term employment assumptions.

For owners and operators, the priority should be disciplined vessel positioning, selective period cover and a clear assessment of net voyage returns after bunkers, ballast exposure and security-related costs. In the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea, operational risk must remain central to every employment decision. Commercially, the ability to compare regional alternatives, preserve flexibility and act on relative value will matter more than pursuing headline rates at the expense of positioning.

The market continues to offer attractive earning opportunities, but selectivity will increasingly distinguish strong performance from merely acceptable results. The advantage will lie with those who match vessel capability and position to demonstrable cargo demand, manage downside exposure and anticipate changes in regional supply before they are fully reflected in freight rates.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.