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Dry Bulk Market Loses Momentum as Freight Rates Hold Steady Amid Mixed Regional Trends

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

Capesizes Provide the Only Bright Spot While Kamsarmaxes Suffer Sharp Weekly Losses; Smaller Segments Remain Largely Stable

The dry bulk freight market moved through the week with limited changes across the major vessel segments. The only notable exception was the Kamsarmax sector, which recorded double-digit weekly losses. Meanwhile, the smaller vessel classes posted only marginal fluctuations, reflecting a market that continues to search for direction.

More specifically, Capesizes advanced by 4.59%, Kamsarmaxes declined by 9.98%, Ultramaxes slipped by 2.5%, while Handysize vessels edged 0.2% higher compared with the previous week.

As a result, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by just 9 points on a weekly basis, closing at 2,743 points on Friday, July 24.

Below is a detailed breakdown of developments across the dry bulk market by vessel segment and trading region.

Capesize: Atlantic Strength Offsets Mixed Asian Activity

Growing August Cargo Demand from Brazil Supports Atlantic Earnings

In Asia, although the three major market participants remained active throughout the week, trading activity gained momentum toward the end of the period as additional coal cargoes entered the market and operators became increasingly engaged in negotiations.

Consequently, freight rates on the benchmark Australia–China (C5) route gained $2 per metric ton over the course of the week. By Friday, the C5 index had closed at $12.85 per metric ton.

The Atlantic basin, particularly the South Atlantic, delivered a considerably stronger performance. Charterers rushed to secure tonnage for August-loading cargoes, driving freight rates higher and providing positive momentum for the North Atlantic market as well.

By Friday, the Brazil–China (C3) route was assessed at $34.68 per metric ton, while earnings on the Continent-to-Asia (C9) route reached $73,330 per day. Meanwhile, Transatlantic Round Voyage (C8) rates climbed to $44,840 per day.

Kamsarmax: Oversupply Weighs on Earnings Despite Pockets of Demand

Fleet Availability Continues to Pressure the Market Across Both the Atlantic and Asia

In the Atlantic, particularly in the North Atlantic, vessel availability remained relatively tight. However, the reduced supply failed to translate into stronger freight rates, which continued to soften throughout the week. In the South Atlantic, the market was similarly pressured by an oversupply of tonnage, keeping sentiment firmly on the bearish side.

Indicatively, time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings for voyages from the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Far East were assessed at $19,000–$21,000 per day (delivery Asia). Voyages from Europe to Asia were fixed at $29,000–$31,000 per day (delivery Europe), while Transatlantic Round Voyages were concluded at $19,000–$21,000 per day (delivery Gibraltar).

Across Asia, the market remained under pressure despite gradually improving cargo demand. A large number of open vessels competed aggressively for available business, preventing any meaningful recovery in freight rates. Although additional August cargoes entered the market, they proved insufficient to alter the overall market balance.

Freight rates for round voyages in Southeast Asia and the Far East were reported at $17,000–$19,000 per day (delivery Far East).

Ultramax: Regional Divergence Defines Another Uneven Week

Firm Middle East Market Contrasts with Weakness in the Atlantic and Far East

The Southeast Asian market opened the week on a positive note. However, during the final two trading days, the lack of fresh cargo stems combined with increasing vessel availability shifted bargaining power back to charterers.

Freight rates for Ultramax vessels trading between Southeast Asia and the Far East were assessed at $17,500–$19,000 per day.

Further north, the Far East market continued to lose momentum as vessel concentration increased steadily throughout the week. The growing availability of open tonnage enabled charterers to push for lower freight levels—a trend that could persist unless cargo demand improves in the coming days.

Ultramax rates for North Pacific (NOPAC) round voyages stood at $17,500–$19,000 per day, while voyages to India achieved $21,000–$22,500 per day. Backhaul voyages returning to the Atlantic were fixed at $20,500–$22,000 per day.

Middle East Holds Firm on Limited Vessel Supply

Healthy Fundamentals Support Freight Levels Despite Moderate Cargo Demand

In the Middle East Gulf (MEG) and West Coast India (WCI), the market maintained a firm tone, supported primarily by a limited supply of prompt vessels. Cargo demand remained broadly in line with seasonal expectations, allowing owners to retain negotiating leverage.

Freight rates for voyages to the Far East were assessed at $14,500–$16,000 per day (delivery WCI).

U.S. Gulf Extends Downtrend as Fleet Availability Increases

Additional Tonnage Continues to Pressure Atlantic Freight Markets

In the Atlantic, particularly in the U.S. Gulf, freight rates continued to weaken as vessel supply expanded further. Additional pressure came from ships repositioning from the U.S. East Coast and North Atlantic into the Gulf, increasing competition for available cargoes.

Ultramax rates for Transatlantic voyages were reported at $28,500–$30,000 per day, while voyages from the Gulf to Asia were concluded at $32,500–$34,000 per day.

The East Coast South America (ECSA) market experienced a slow start to the week and maintained subdued trading activity through most of the period. Although cargo volumes improved toward the end of the week, the recovery proved short-lived.

Freight rates from ECSA to Southeast Asia and China were assessed at $34,500–$36,000 per day, while Transatlantic voyages to Europe and the Mediterranean achieved $31,500–$33,000 per day.

Europe and Mediterranean Enter Seasonal Slowdown

Balanced Supply and Demand Keep Freight Rates Largely Unchanged

The European market traded at a subdued pace throughout the week, with relatively few fresh cargoes entering the market and only limited chartering activity reported.

Ultramax rates for local round voyages were assessed at $20,500–$22,000 per day, while shipments of scrap into the Mediterranean earned $25,500–$27,000 per day. Voyages from Europe to Asia were concluded at $25,000–$26,500 per day.

The Mediterranean market appeared to have entered its traditional summer lull. With vessel supply and cargo demand remaining largely balanced, concluded fixtures were reported at levels broadly unchanged from the previous week.

Indicatively, an Ultramax fixing from the Mediterranean to Asia was reported at $26,000–$27,500 per day (delivery Canakkale). Voyages to the opposite side of the Atlantic earned $15,000–$16,500 per day, while employment within the Mediterranean was fixed at $19,500–$21,000 per day, excluding war-risk trading areas.

Handysize: Market Holds Steady as Regional Activity Remains Mixed

Seasonal Slowdown in Europe Contrasts with Improving Sentiment in South America

The European Handysize market softened during the week as demand remained limited and only a handful of new fixtures emerged. The balance between available cargoes and open tonnage left market participants with little indication of the market's likely direction in the week ahead.

For the larger vessels in the segment, freight rates were assessed at $12,500–$14,000 per day for local round voyages, $15,500–$17,000 per day for scrap cargoes into the Mediterranean, and $16,000–$17,500 per day for Transatlantic voyages.

Mediterranean: Black Sea Risk Continues to Shape Chartering Decisions

War-Risk Premiums Remain Firm for Ukrainian Loadings

The Mediterranean market continued to operate under the shadow of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Black Sea. Shipowners continued to demand higher war-risk premiums for cargoes loading from Ukraine, particularly in the Odessa area.

Freight rates for larger Handysize vessels (above 36,000 dwt) were assessed at $9,500–$11,000 per day for intra-Mediterranean voyages, $9,500–$11,000 per day for voyages to Continental Europe, $10,000–$11,500 per day for Transatlantic employment, and $14,500–$16,000 per day for voyages to Asia, with Canakkale serving as the delivery point.

U.S. Gulf: Strong Chartering Activity Fails to Lift Freight Rates

Private Fixtures Increase, but Charterers Retain the Upper Hand

The U.S. Gulf remained one of the week's most active regions, with a considerable number of fixtures concluded, many of them negotiated privately and therefore not reflected in the visible market. Nevertheless, the continuing imbalance between vessel supply and cargo demand favored charterers, preventing any meaningful increase in freight levels.

Freight rates for larger Handysize vessels were assessed at $18,500–$20,000 per day for Transatlantic voyages and $19,500–$21,000 per day for voyages to Asia.

East Coast South America: August Cargoes Begin to Emerge

Improving Activity Supports Market Sentiment Without Moving Rates Higher

The East Coast South America (ECSA) market opened the week at a relatively slow pace before gradually gathering momentum as the week progressed. August cargoes began entering the market in greater numbers, although the additional demand proved insufficient to generate higher freight rates.

Freight rates for Transatlantic voyages to Europe and the Mediterranean were assessed at $21,000–$22,500 per day, while voyages to Asia achieved $21,500–$23,000 per day.

Asia: Quiet North, Healthier South

Australian Cargoes Offer Support While MEG and India Remain in Wait-and-See Mode

Across North Asia, market activity remained relatively subdued throughout the week, with most attention focused on backhaul voyages and period charter negotiations.

In South Asia, however, sentiment was more constructive as additional cargoes—primarily originating from Australia—provided fresh employment opportunities for owners.

Further west, in the Middle East Gulf (MEG) and India, demand remained subdued. Both charterers and shipowners largely adopted a wait-and-see approach as they monitored developments affecting the region.

Freight rates for larger Handysize vessels were assessed at $17,500–$19,000 per day for Far East and North Pacific (NOPAC) round voyages, $18,500–$20,000 per day for voyages from Southeast Asia to China, and $9,500–$11,000 per day for voyages from West Coast India to China.

Market Outlook

Dry Bulk Market Remains Range-Bound as Participants Await Fresh Catalysts

Overall, the dry bulk market remained largely directionless during the week, with freight rates showing only limited movement across most vessel segments. Capesizes continued to outperform the rest of the market, supported by stronger Atlantic fundamentals, while Kamsarmaxes experienced the sharpest weekly correction. The Ultramax and Handysize sectors displayed greater resilience, although regional imbalances between cargo demand and vessel availability continued to shape freight levels.

As the market moves into the final weeks of July, attention is expected to focus on the pace of August cargo programs, fleet positioning, and whether fresh demand will be sufficient to absorb the growing supply of available tonnag

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.