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Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.: January has traditionally been the month that tests optimism

"January has traditionally been the month that tests optimism. Dry bulk, in particular, has a habit of starting the year with a few "hopeful" fixtures and then bleeding lower into late January as cargo programs thin out and positioning resets.

That pattern is clear in 2025: every major dry bulk timecharter basket closed January below where it started. Capesize (C5TC) fell about 31% from early to end-month, Panamax (P5TC) about 20%, Supramax (S10TC) roughly 40%, and Handysize (HS7TC) about 32%, turning January into a slow grind rather than a launchpad, based on your Baltic Exchange historic TC series from 2022 to 2026.

2026 has broken that script, at least where the "beta" sits. Capesize ends January around 15% higher than it started, while Panamax posts a much stronger 36% step-up over the same start-to-close window. Even where the move is less spectacular, the message is that the market did not fade by default: Supramax is essentially flat on the month, and only Handysize is meaningfully lower, down about 10%. The bigger point is the level as much as the direction. On a January average basis, 2026 is running materially above 2025: roughly +111% in Capesize, +65% in Panamax, +45% in Supramax and +32% in Handysize. That is not just a "good week", it's a different starting altitude.

Tankers are telling a similar story, but with an extra twist: the "January closes higher than it starts" behaviour is not entirely new. Looking in the tanker Baltic TCE history from 2022 to 2026, parts of that pattern appear in 2024 already (Aframax and MR baskets, and even VLCC, finished January higher than they began), while Suezmax lagged then. By January 2026, the strength is broad and loud: VLCC roughly doubles from early-month to end-month, moving higher +104%, Aframax jumps about +86%, Suezmax adds about +24%, MR Atlantic +55%, and MR Pacific +11%. Versus January 2025 averages, 2026 is again operating at a different scale, especially in crude. That fits the wider narrative that sanctions, longer routing and fleet "availability" (not just fleet "size") are keeping tanker earnings supported into 2026.

Rates alone would be enough to make January feel unusual. S&P confirms it. Xclusiv's January data shows 2026 as the most active January of the last five-year set: 71 bulkers sold versus 52 in Jan-2025, and 87 tankers versus just 20 a year ago. In dry, Supra/Ultra are the headline with 27 sales, or 38% of all bulk deals, followed by 12 Kamsarmax and 10 Capesize. In tankers, VLCC dominates with 37 sales, followed by MR2 with 16.

Why does S&P accelerate when prices are already high? Because high secondhand levels don't stop deals when the alternatives are worse. Replacement cost is still elevated, shipyard slots are still a constraint, and many owners prefer to lock in optionality immediately by buying trading tonnage rather than having significant exposure to long delivery times. On the sell side, strong spot/TC earnings and firmer forward sentiment create the perfect moment to crystallise returns, especially for assets that have re-rated. And the macro tape is supportive: Baltic market updates through January point to improving freight tone in both dry and tankers, with notable jumps in crude segments and continued momentum in parts of the clean market".

S&P Activity:

Dry:

On the Capesize sector, the "Irene II" - 180K/2006 Imabari was sold for USD 21 mills to Chinese buyers, while the Scrubber fitted "Robusto" - 174K/2006 SWS was sold for mid USD 19 mills basis delivery Far East Apr/May 2026. Greek buyers acquired the Kamsarmax "Rize"- 82K/2012 HMD for USD 17.7 mills, while the Kamsarmax "Aya" - 82K/2006 Tsuneishi found new owners for USD 10.7 mills. On the Supramax sector, the Electronic M/E "Indigo Spica" - 58K/2014 Shin Kurushima was sold for USD 21 mills to Greek buyers, while the "Anasa" - 56K/2008 Mitsui was sold for USD 13.3 mills. On the Handysize sector, Greek buyers acquired the "Jetstream"- 35K/2012 SPP for high USD 12 mills. Moreover, on the same sector, the "Yangtze Grace" - 33K/2012 JNS and "Yangtze Happiness" - 32K/2012 JNS were sold for USD 10 mills each to Chinese buyers.

Tanker:

On the VLCC sector, the "Agneta Pallas III" - 300K/2013 HHI was sold for low USD 90's mills. On the same sector, Greek buyers acquired the "Asian Lion" - 298K/2009 Shanghai Jiangnan for USD 60 mills, while the "DHT Bauhinia" - 301K/2007 Daewoo was sold for USD 51.5 mills to Chinese buyers. On the MR2 sector, the "UOG Oslo" - 46K/2010 HMD was sold for USD 22.5 mills to Indian buyers basis SS/DD freshly passed. Finally, on the same sector, the "Seaways Grace" - 50K/2008 HMD and "Seaways Madeleine" - 50K/2008 HMD were sold for high USD 16 mills each.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.