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Ultramax & Handy Market: Riding the Waves Before They Break

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

 Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director 

As at 30 January 2026

A Market Entering February with Quiet Strength

The Ultramax and Handy sectors close out January with a steadier footing than many anticipated, supported by resilient cargo flow, disciplined owner behaviour, and a seasonal slowdown far milder than the industry’s traditional winter pattern.

While regional disparities remain, the broader tone is one of gradual firming rather than volatility, with owners increasingly able to defend levels—particularly in basins where tonnage lists have tightened.

As we move into the first days of February, the balance of risk leans modestly to the upside. Gains are expected to be incremental rather than dramatic, yet the consistent premium on forward cargoes signals a market that believes current levels are sustainable in the near term.

Atlantic Basin

South Atlantic (ECSA) – Ultramax The South Atlantic continues to demonstrate quiet strength, with rates advancing across most routes on the back of improved enquiry and firmer sentiment. Cargo flow has been sufficient for owners to push ideas higher, supported by the open Panamax arbitrage that favours larger Ultramaxes. Although tonnage remains available, the balance has clearly shifted toward owners.

A growing number of ballasters heading into ECSA reflects expectations of stronger levels into late February and early March. This influx may temporarily introduce internal competition, potentially tempering further gains unless cargo volumes accelerate. Even so, sentiment remains firmly positive.

South Atlantic (ECSA) – Handy After a subdued start, the Handy market gained momentum mid‑week, driven by a wave of replacement cargoes and a shrinking prompt tonnage list. While the second half of February shows a longer list of open vessels, near‑term demand is healthy and increasingly competitive. The tone remains constructive, with scope for further modest firming as February fixing progresses.

US Gulf – Ultramax The US Gulf defied expectations of a sharper Q1 correction. After a softer opening, rates strengthened steadily, with Ultramax benchmarks returning to the mid‑USD 20,000s. Units with dirty approvals continue to command a premium. Forward cargoes are consistently quoted above spot, reinforcing confidence in the weeks ahead. Even with activity easing after a busy fixing window, fundamentals remain supportive, and a growing number of market participants are positioning for a firmer March–April.

US Gulf – Handy Handysize demand remained robust throughout the week, underpinned by a long list of February cargoes. Owners have defended and, in some cases, improved levels, with mid‑ to high‑teen rates achieved across most routes. Although fresh enquiry slowed toward week’s end, the declining tonnage count and incomplete February coverage suggest limited downside risk.

Pacific Coast of the Americas

West Coast South America – Ultramax The market held steady, with salt demand receiving a temporary lift ahead of Chinese New Year. Fixtures to the US East Coast have established a benchmark around USD 17,000. Enquiry is expected to ease gradually next week, pointing to a broadly flat near‑term outlook.

West Coast South America – Handy Conditions remain stable, with steady demand for second‑half January deliveries. Rates are expected to edge slightly higher into early February as prompt availability tightens.

Europe

Continent – Ultramax The Continent remained subdued, constrained by a persistent gap between owner and charterer ideas. However, a modest reduction in open tonnage and a lack of visible mid‑February positions have lifted owner confidence. Activity improved toward week’s end, with more discussion and optionality emerging. With limited supply and the pull of a firmer transatlantic market, sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

Continent – Handy The Handy market firmed steadily, supported by Baltic cargo flow and a limited number of prompt vessels. Owners have been selective, holding levels with minimal resistance. West Africa HRA trips fixed in the mid‑USD 15,000s. The week closes on solid footing, with the sustainability of this momentum now the key question.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – Ultramax The Mediterranean remained muted due to limited prompt cargoes and tight spot tonnage, particularly in the West Med. Increased enquiry from North Brazil has provided alternative employment, pushing offers higher and sidelining some local charterers. The East Med and Black Sea remain weighed down by longer lists and weaker demand, keeping levels flat. The strengthening ECSA market continues to offer West Med owners valuable optionality.

Mediterranean / Black Sea – Handy The Handy market remains under pressure, particularly in the Black Sea, where oversupply and weak grain volumes continue to suppress activity. Cement cargoes have provided some support, but momentum is limited. Owners have adjusted expectations to secure employment and reposition more efficiently. Bulk cement cargoes to the US are fixing around USD 10,000 plus USD 140,000–150,000 ilohc. In the West Med, more vessels are ballasting northbound toward the Continent in search of higher‑paying employment.

Middle East, Indian Ocean & South Africa

Middle East Gulf – Ultramax The MEG market saw limited movement, though sentiment has improved slightly. Period interest remains healthy, even as spot rates stay sharp. A tightening tonnage list and steady cargo flow suggest scope for gradual improvement, particularly if Atlantic support continues.

Middle East Gulf – Handy Oversupply persists, keeping spot levels under pressure. Forward cargoes remain difficult to conclude at current ideas, and the market is likely to remain challenging in the immediate term.

Indian Ocean & South Africa – Ultramax Cargo availability remains insufficient to support ECI positions, prompting continued ballasting to Indonesia, Australia, or South Africa. However, conditions in the Indian Ocean are showing signs of firming, driven by increased local volumes, heightened South African activity, and additional demand from the South Atlantic. Rates are trending upward as charterers raise offers to secure early February cargoes. Period activity remains strong.

South Africa experienced an active week, with manganese and coal demand supporting rates. Competition from ECSA has tightened local supply, particularly for Ultramaxes fixing toward China at around USD 16,000 plus USD 160,000 lumpsum. Sentiment remains stable with reduced downside risk.

Indian Ocean & South Africa – Handy The Handy segment showed early signs of strengthening, supported by increased enquiry and improving confidence. In South Africa, rising ballaster flows toward ECSA are reducing local availability, forcing charterers to compete with stronger Atlantic earnings.

Far East, Southeast Asia & Australia

Far East – Ultramax The northern market eased gradually as the week progressed, with order volumes tapering after a strong Monday. Offer levels, which rose sharply early in the week, normalised by midweek. Backhaul business dominated activity, with nopac voyages also well represented. Tonnage supply continues to rise, exerting mild downward pressure despite owner resistance on nopac rounds.

Backhaul levels softened into the high single to low teens, with split redelivery options into WAFR and the USWC remaining common. The northern market appears broadly balanced but marginally favouring charterers.

The southern market held firmer ground, supported by steady seas–China activity. Interest in ECI voyages strengthened later in the week. Owners held firm on low‑to‑mid teens for preferred nopac, Australian grain, and short‑period employment. Indonesian coal and Australian grain dominated enquiry, contributing to a balanced yet cautious tone.

NOPAC tonnage supply increased, while new orders declined. Recent fixtures concluded around USD 14,000 bss Busan for high‑quality Ultramaxes. Despite fresh Indonesian coal enquiry midweek, rates remained steady.

Australian export volumes remained consistent, though upside was limited by high‑quality Ultramaxes in ECI offering USD 10,500–11,000 dop for rounds. Backhaul activity was more concentrated in northern regions. Short‑period employment continues to command mid‑USD 16,000 levels, supported by firmer backhaul earnings.

Far East – Handy Far East–Southeast Asia levels remained broadly unchanged, with rates around USD 7,000–8,000 for trips southbound. A larger Handysize fixed USD 13,000 for a PG voyage. Sentiment remains stable.

The intra–Far East market opened the week firmer as vessel availability tightened. Larger Handysizes achieved mid‑USD 8,000 to mid‑USD 9,000 for southbound voyages. A 38,000 dwt vessel in Weihai secured USD 8,600 dop for steel to Southeast Asia.

MEG–WCI trades recorded the strongest improvement, with freight levels rising USD 1,500–2,000. A 37,000 dwt vessel in Busan fixed USD 13,000 dop for a trip to the MEG.

Backhaul demand remains limited, with Continent trips fixing in the mid‑USD 10,000s and Mediterranean voyages around USD 11,000. Fixtures to WCCA and the USWC stand at USD 11,000 and USD 8,500 respectively. More backhaul cargoes are expected mid‑February.

The period market has strengthened, with larger 40,000 dwt units achieving high USD 13,000–14,000 levels.

Southeast Asia / Australia – Handy Pacific rounds on smaller Handysizes are fixing in the USD 6,000–7,000 range amid limited fresh enquiry. The Australian market remains firm, though ballasting enquiries are fixed quickly. Larger Handysizes achieve USD 9,000–10,000 on sub‑positions and around USD 15,000 for outward voyages. Fixtures around USD 10,000 bss Singapore for Australia rounds have been reported. Tonnage remains slightly long, applying pressure on owners.

Levels for legs and short‑period employment remain firm, with indications around USD 12,500 versus USD 13,500. A minor build‑up of early‑February vessels is possible, though the market remains balanced.

Outlook: The Week Ahead

The market enters February with measured confidence. While regional corrections remain possible—particularly where tonnage is rebuilding—the broader environment favours stability to modest improvement rather than retracement.

Key variables to monitor include the pace of February cargo absorption, ballaster flows into ECSA, and whether Pacific demand stabilises sufficiently to prevent further softening in the north.

Disciplined positioning remains essential, and owners who maintain strategic flexibility are likely to be rewarded.

Legal Disclaimer:

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.