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The first half of January reminded everyone that crude tankers do not need a fresh demand miracle to re-rate

The first half of January reminded everyone that crude tankers do not need a fresh demand miracle to re-rate, they just need the map to change. Baltic Exchange TCEs captured that shift almost day by day. VLCC earnings slid from USD 62,929/day on 24 Dec to a low of USD 37,869/day by 6 Jan, before turning sharply higher to USD 97,323/day on 15 Jan, a 157% rebound from the early-month trough. Suezmaxes followed the same path but with more bite: from USD 92,551/day pre-Christmas down to USD 63,485/day on 7 Jan, then up to USD 107,826/day on 15 Jan. That last move matters: the 15 Jan jump was +32% day-on-day, the biggest daily rise since 12 Oct 2023, and it pushed the index to the highest level since 19 Dec 2022. Aframaxes were steadier, dipping to USD 48,282/day on 5 Jan and grinding up to USD 62,843/day by 15 Jan, but even there the direction was clear once the rally started.

So what changed? Start with Venezuela. The US is now effectively controlling the marketing of Venezuelan crude and claims realised prices are already roughly 30% higher than under the previous regime. Whatever one thinks politically, commercially this creates a strong incentive to restore volumes, normalise liftings and pull barrels back into more "visible" trading channels. The immediate shipping signal is already showing: roughly 10 Aframax-size LR2 units have reportedly switched from clean to dirty employment in anticipation of more Venezuelan crude liftings. A useful rule of thumb shared by market participants is that every incremental 1 mb/d of Venezuelan production could translate into demand for around 23 Aframax/LR2 tankers. Add the naphtha leg, US exports to Venezuela to dilute heavy crude, and you get activity on both dirty and clean maps, but with one key consequence: more competition for the same pool of prompt, mainstream tonnage.

At the same time, Russian flows look shakier at the margin. Seaborne crude exports in 1–15 Jan are reported lower than December levels, while Indian intake has fallen sharply versus last month as refiners lean back ahead of the EU's 21 Jan restriction on importing fuels made from Russian crude refined in third countries. Layer on a lower price cap from early February and the market's real issue becomes friction: compliance, insurance, routing and counterparty risk. Even when barrels still move, they do not move "smoothly", and that operational drag tightens effective supply for the conventional fleet.

Finally, VLCCs are getting a structural push from within. Longer-haul Atlantic barrels moving into Asia help, but so does consolidation: when a larger slice of a ~900-ship fleet sits under fewer hands, owners can manage exposure more deliberately, while charterers increasingly try to control ships directly to protect optionality. Put simply, utilisation stays high not because the world suddenly discovered more oil, but because availability, the right ship, in the right place, with the right paper, became the constraint.

This week's tape is saying one thing: the market is pricing a narrower set of workable options. If Venezuelan exports accelerate while Russia-related compliance tightens again, January's spike may end up looking less like a blip and more like a reset of the floor.

Dry S&P Activity:

Dry bulk S&P activity this week was spread across all sizes, from Capesize down to Handysize. On the Newcastlemax sector, S. Korean buyers acquired the "BERGE MOLDOVEANU" - 208K/2020 Bohai for USD 73.9 mills. In the Capesize sector, the "MIRACLE" - 181K/2011 Tsuneishi Cebu was reported sold to F. Eastern buyers for USD 32 mills, while European buyers picked up the "FRONTIER KOTOBUKI" - 175K/2011 Tsuneishi for USD 31.4 mills. Moving to the Kamsarmax segment, the "MIAO XIANG" - 82K/2013 JES changed hands for USD 16.8 mills, while the "FJELD SVEA" - 82K/2013 SPP and the "FJELD FREIA" - 80K/2011 STX were reported sold at region USD 20 mills and region USD 16 mills, respectively. Finally, in the smaller sizes, Chinese buyers acquired the Ultramax "ELIZABETH M II" - 64K/2020 Nantong Xiangyu for USD 30.2 mills, the Ultramax "XIANG HANG 59" - 64K/2025 Sainty Shipbuilding was sold for USD 34 mills, while the Handysize "JESSICA B" - 37K/2003 Shanghai Shipyard and the "SOUTH SPIRIT" - 29K/1998 Shin Kurushima were both reported sold. In addition, the OHBS "TBC PRAISE" - 37K/2012 Hyundai Mipo changed hands for USD 14.4 mills.

Tanker S&P Activity:

In the VLCC market, clients of Sinokor were behind a series of acquisitions, including the Scrubber fitted sisters "DELTA ANGELICA" - 320K/2012 HHI and "DELTA GLORY" - 320K/2012 HHI for USD 80 mills each, the scrubber fitted trio "COBALT NOVA" - 319K/2011 SWS, "CYAN NOVA" - 319K/2011 SWS, "BLUE NOVA" - 297K/2011 Dalian, the scrubber fitted duet "SEAWAYS RAFFLES" - 318K/2010 HHI & "SEAWAYS KILIMANJARO" - 297K/2012 Dalian, along with the "CAPE ASPRO" - 302K/2010 IHI for USD 68 mills & scrubber fitted "FELICE" - 298K/2010 Universal for high USD 60 mills. In addition clients of Trafigura acquired the scrubber fitted VLCCS "HUNTER" - 300K/2021 Hyundai Samho and "SERENDIPITY" - 300K/2021 Hyundai Samho for USD 125 mills apiece. Elsewhere, the "UNITED VENTURE" - 105K/2010 Sumitomo was reported sold. In the LR1/Panamax tanker segment, Middle Eastern buyers acquired the "HAMBURG STAR" - 74K/2005 New Century for USD 10.2 mills, while the "PLOUTOS" - 74K/2006 New Century was sold at USD 13.5 mills and the "MADI" - 73K/2005 Hudong Zhonghua changed hands for USD 10.5 mills. In the MR segment, the "ELLIE M II" - 47K/2007 Hyundai Mipo was sold for USD 15 mills, the "MAERSK KARA" - 38K/2008 GSI changed hands for USD 12 mills, the "HTM EVEREST" - 38K/2010 Hyundai Mipo was reported sold and Chinese buyers acquired the stainless steel tanker "T VEGA" - 20K/2006 Kitanihon for USD 14 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.