By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

The dry bulk market has entered a phase where momentum appears to be easing across all vessel segments. The pullback was most pronounced where it was largely anticipated: among Capesize vessels. Compared with the previous week, Capes recorded a sharp decline of 27.55%, while Kamsarmaxes slipped by 8.10%, Ultramaxes (63k) by 4.52%, and Handysize tonnage by 4.33%. Against this backdrop, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shed 522 points week-on-week, closing at 2,205 on Friday, 12 December.

Taken together, the numbers suggest not a sudden squall, but a broad softening of winds across the basin. Below is a closer, vessel-by-vessel navigation through the week’s trading patterns.

In the Pacific, there were discernible signs of life. Mining interests remained active through much of the week, injecting cargoes into the market and preventing a complete loss of pace. Nevertheless, this activity proved insufficient to stem the decline on the benchmark Australia–China run. Freight levels on that key artery slipped by more than one dollar per tonne, with the C5 index settling at USD 10.49/tonne by Friday.

Across the Atlantic, sentiment also weakened. In the South Atlantic, both Brazil and West Africa produced some cargoes toward the end of the week, but not in volumes capable of shifting the balance. The North Atlantic mirrored this pattern, with reduced cargo flow on both transatlantic and Asia-bound routes.

By week’s end, the Brazil–China route (C3) closed at USD 21.89/tonne. Time-charter equivalents from Europe to Asia (C9) stood at USD 53.11k/day, while transatlantic round voyages (C8) eased to USD 37.38k/day. The Capesize market, in short, showed activity without conviction—motion, but little propulsion.

For Kamsarmaxes, the Atlantic offered a tale of two halves. The North Atlantic opened quietly, with limited enquiry and a generally subdued tone. Midweek, however, conditions improved modestly as tonnage supply tightened and demand from the US East Coast increased. This partial recovery lent some support to rates.

Indicatively, voyages from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) to the Far East achieved USD 15–17k/day (Asia delivery). Europe-to-Asia runs were fixed around USD 21–23k/day (Europe delivery), while transatlantic rounds hovered at USD 16.5–18.5k/day (Gibraltar delivery).

In contrast, Asia remained under pressure throughout the week. Charterers adopted a firm stance, encouraged by a growing concentration of open tonnage. The lack of fresh cargoes from Australia, Indonesia, and the North Pacific further weighed on sentiment. As a result, round voyages within Southeast Asia and the Far East traded at approximately USD 13.5–15.5k/day (Far East delivery).

The Supramax–Ultramax sector presented a more fragmented chart. In Southeast Asia, rates trended lower amid scarce new cargoes and a wait-and-see approach from charterers. Owners, for their part, appeared more flexible in their ideas, contributing to the softer tone. Ultramax earnings on Southeast Asia–Far East runs eased to around USD 15–16.5k/day.

Further north, the Far East market lost ground as the week progressed, with an increasing number of open vessels testing owners’ resolve. Charterers largely held their course, prompting rate concessions in several cases. Ultramax round voyages in the North Pacific (NOPAC) settled at USD 12.5–14k/day, while trips to India commanded USD 15.5–17k/day. Backhaul voyages to the Atlantic were fixed at roughly USD 13.5–15k/day.

In contrast, the Arabian Gulf and West Coast India displayed firmer fundamentals. Tonnage availability remained tight relative to demand, with additional support from South African cargoes. Ultramax rates for Far East-bound voyages from the Arabian Gulf–WCI region ranged between USD 15.5–17k/day, with similar levels for short regional runs. Atlantic-bound voyages were concluded at USD 11.5–13k/day

In the Atlantic, particularly the US Gulf, the week began on a positive note. Prompt tonnage benefited from an initial rate uptick, though this momentum faded as vessel supply increased. Ultramax transatlantic voyages fixed at USD 30–31.5k/day, while Asia-bound trips achieved USD 27–28.5k/day.

ECSA unfolded at two speeds. The southern part of the region came under pressure, while the north held up better. Although some cargoes emerged during the week, they were insufficient to absorb the growing tonnage list. Ultramax rates from ECSA to Southeast Asia/China stood at USD 26–27.5k/day, with transatlantic runs to the Mediterranean/Europe at USD 24.5–26k/day.

Europe, meanwhile, remained firmly in charterers’ hands. Many employed their own fleets where possible, increasing available tonnage and pushing rates lower. Ultramax local rounds traded at USD 19–20.5k/day, scrap cargoes to the Mediterranean at USD 25.5–27k/day, and Asia-bound voyages at USD 24.5–26k/day.

The Mediterranean itself stayed under pressure, weighed down by repositioning vessels heading west. The eastern Med and Black Sea moved at a slower tempo, further clouding the outlook. An Ultramax fixed from the Mediterranean to Asia was reported at USD 19.5–21k/day (Çanakkale delivery), while Atlantic-bound voyages fell to USD 9.5–11k/day.

In the Handysize segment, Europe experienced a general softening, though some routes managed to hold steady. Larger Handies secured USD 15.5–17k/day on local rounds, USD 18–19.5k/day for scrap cargoes into the Mediterranean, and USD 12.5–14k/day on transatlantic voyages.

The Mediterranean slipped further as increasing vessel supply outpaced demand. While cargo flows from the Black Sea and Western Mediterranean remained steady, they failed to reverse sentiment. For vessels above 36,000 dwt, Mediterranean trips fixed at USD 12.5–14k/day, with Europe-bound and transatlantic runs at USD 11.5–13k/day and USD 9.5–11k/day respectively. Asia-bound voyages were concluded at USD 13.5–15k/day.

Across the Atlantic, the US Gulf closed the week on firmer ground due to limited tonnage, allowing owners with prompt vessels to capitalise. The US East Coast, however, saw restrained demand cap further gains. Larger Handies earned USD 23–24.5k/day on transatlantic runs and USD 19.5–21k/day to Asia.

ECSA remained broadly balanced. An increase in open tonnage was offset by fresh cargoes, keeping rates stable. Expectations are building for additional December volumes. Current levels place transatlantic voyages to Europe/Mediterranean at USD 23.5–25k/day and Asia-bound trips at USD 19.5–21k/day.

In Asia, most routes softened both north and south, with only local northern trades showing resilience. Further west, the Middle East Gulf and India saw stagnation amid limited activity. Larger Handies fixed at USD 10–11.5k/day on Far East and NOPAC rounds, USD 12–13.5k/day from Southeast Asia to China, and USD 9.5–11k/day from West India to China.

The prevailing picture is one of moderation rather than rupture—a market catching its breath after earlier exertion. For operators and investors alike, such periods often reward careful analysis, disciplined strategy, and an appreciation of regional nuances. As ever in shipping, understanding the dynamics—in the classical, Hellenic sense of forces in motion—can make the difference between merely riding the swell and navigating with purpose.