Weekly Market Report & Outlook

By: Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

As 2025 edges toward its finale, the dry bulk market is navigating a familiar seasonal swell — a mix of tightening windows, softening pockets, and a general hesitancy that feels almost ritualistic this time of year. Some basins are still sailing with a fair breeze, others are drifting into calmer waters, but one theme cuts across the oceans: tonnage is beginning to outpace cargo, and charterers are increasingly emboldened to test the limits of owners’ expectations.

Below is a charted course through the week’s developments — a concise, strategic briefing for owners, charterers, and maritime investors who need clarity before plotting their next move.

ECSA opened the week with its usual December tightness, especially in Brazil, where prompt supply remained lean. Yet the earlier momentum has eased. Fresh stems appeared, but not in volumes strong enough to lift sentiment. The market now sits in a delicate equilibrium — not bullish, not bearish, simply holding station.

Owners are keeping a weather eye on the horizon: a potential influx of ballasters over the festive period could reshape early‑January dynamics. For now, the basin remains firm but cautious.

Ultramax levels softened slightly. South Brazil felt the weight of additional tonnage, while the north held its line. Fronthaul numbers hovered around last‑done, signalling a market adjusting to a more neutral, almost philosophical, “metron” — the ancient Greek ideal of balance.

The Gulf saw a brief uptick as prompt stems were cleared, but the fundamentals remain fragile. More ships are surfacing for early December, and the USEC continues to suffer from an oversupply of candidates. Any optimism is likely to be short‑lived.

The early‑December squeeze faded quickly. By mid‑week, the tonnage list for the 20–30 December window had grown enough for charterers to push bids below last‑done. Fronthaul slipped into the high‑$20,000s, while transatlantic runs held marginally firmer thanks to Mediterranean weakness. With the holidays approaching, more owners are expected to look further forward — a move that may inadvertently add pressure.

Tonnage is building, demand is thinning, and owners are beginning to feel the strain. The absence of Ultramax candidates around the 20th may create isolated opportunities for Handies, but overall the region remains subdued.

Most December requirements were covered early, leaving little fresh enquiry. With Christmas approaching and few incentives to wait, rates are likely to soften further unless delays or unexpected stems appear — a classic case of “calm seas, low returns.”

The Continent traded steadily but without spark. Cargo volumes fluctuated, and while occasional fresh stems helped maintain balance, the growing tonnage list capped any upward movement. The Mediterranean mirrored this tone — steady, serviceable, but uninspiring.

Enquiry remained thin, and charterers increasingly leaned on their own tonnage. Scrap and fertiliser volumes dipped, widening the bid‑offer spread and nudging rates lower. With supply overtaking demand, a downward correction appears increasingly likely.

Owners faced mounting pressure as open positions accumulated faster than fresh enquiry. The Black Sea offered some relief through grain cargoes, but the broader basin remained oversupplied — a reminder that even historically resilient regions can drift into calmer waters.

Availability continued to rise, particularly from westbound ballasters. Limited EMED–BSEA demand kept the region subdued. Inter‑Med cargoes provided a modest floor, but fronthaul and West Africa enquiry remained thin, reinforcing a softer outlook.

The market remained flat, drifting sideways with little to suggest a near‑term shift. Supply and demand were in a quiet stalemate.

Sentiment softened modestly. Tonnage lists stayed long, and owners trimmed ideas to remain competitive. South African demand eased, adding to the region’s cautious tone. ECI–China runs settled in the mid‑teens — not a collapse, but certainly a recalibration.

Rates showed early signs of cooling. S15 indicators turned negative, and coastal availability held steady. Additional ballasters from the Indian subcontinent added pressure. With late‑December demand slowing, sentiment has shifted decisively into softer territory.

After weeks of resistance, the intra‑Far East market finally gave way. A build‑up of spot vessels pushed rates lower, especially on southbound legs. Backhaul levels softened as owners opted for longer coverage at modest discounts.

Australia and Southeast Asia saw steady tonnage accumulation, with early fixing of forward stems leaving fewer opportunities for mid‑December ships. Coastal Australian activity remained subdued, and New Zealand logs offered little support.

The Pacific was quieter across the board. EC Australia saw reduced enquiry and a growing list of coastal vessels. West Australia remained muted on salt and grains. Southeast Asia experienced a similar slowdown, with Indonesian coal enquiry dipping and more vessels positioning into the region.

Far East Ultramax rates held in the mid‑teens for NoPac rounds, though the expanding supply pool is beginning to weigh on expectations. Backhaul steels offered some support but not enough to counter the broader softening trend.

Expect a softer undertone across most segments as additional tonnage appears and holiday‑period enquiry thins. ECSA may hold steady for a few more days before gravity takes over.

Pressure is likely to continue as more ships arrive and enquiry remains patchy. EC Australia and Southeast Asia are particularly vulnerable to further easing.

Softness should persist, with limited upside unless unexpected stems emerge.

The market is entering a phase where timing and discipline matter more than ever. Owners who position early and negotiate decisively will fare better than those waiting for a late‑December rebound that may never materialise.

Handysize: Softening, with isolated pockets of resilience

Ultramax: Broadly weaker; charterers increasingly confident

Atlantic: Stable to soft

Pacific: Soft and supply‑heavy

Indian Ocean: Flat to soft

Overall Mood: Cautious, defensive, and increasingly charterer‑led

The seasonal lull may feel familiar, but beneath the surface the market is quietly re‑drawing its contours. Those who anticipate the next swell — rather than react to it — will enter Q1 with a competitive edge. In shipping, as in navigation, foresight is the difference between drifting and leading.

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.