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Riding the Currents: Handysize & Ultramax Market Tides Heading Into December

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis, Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive,

&

TMC Shipping       Commercial Director

Dated: 28 November 2025

As November wanes and the calendar edges toward the festive lull, the Handysize and Ultramax sectors continue to chart a course through a mixed sea of opportunity and caution.

Across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean theatres, tonnage management and cargo flows are steering sentiment — and those who can read the currents early are poised to harness the gains. Here’s a voyage through the week’s market tides.

Handysize Sector: A Delicate Balance of Supply and Demand

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)
The Handysize market in the USG/USEC sailed through a relatively calm week, with the Thanksgiving holiday acting as a natural doldrum. Rates held their course, aided by a tight early-December tonnage list, though enquiry faded by week’s end. Owners remain cautiously optimistic, but any real momentum will need post-holiday grain and petcoke flows to lift the sails.

Outlook:
Flat to slightly firmer. Early-December positions are scarce enough to support stability, but further gains rely on fresh cargo hitting the market.

East Coast South America (ECSA)
In contrast, ECSA Handysize activity charted a bullish trajectory. Robust demand from Brazil and the Plate met one of the tightest tonnage lists in recent memory, pushing TA runs into the low 20s. Early-December slots in South Brazil are commanding firm attention, with owners leveraging a clear upper hand.

Outlook:
Firm. Strong grain shipments, coastal activity, and restricted supply suggest upward pressure is likely to continue.

West Coast South America (WCSA)
Activity in WCSA stayed steady, bolstered by the widening Handy-Ultra freight spread, which encouraged charterers to split parcels. Tonnage is uneven — WCSA remains snug, while WCCA retains units that might ballast south if Pacific opportunities soften.

Outlook:
Stable. Rates should hold, though additional gains are limited unless cargo activity picks up.

Northern Europe (Continent / NWE)
The Continent experienced a steady current, with niche cargoes offsetting softer grain runs. Tonnage is gradually clearing, but thin enquiry is recalibrating owner expectations.

Outlook:
Sideways. The first half of December is likely to remain broadly flat, with sporadic fixtures insufficient to shift the wider trend.

Mediterranean
Sentiment softened in the Med, weighed down by subdued East Med enquiry and minimal Black Sea activity. West Med enquiry provided some ballast but not enough to counteract the regional slack. ECSA’s stronger conditions continue to siphon tonnage away, leaving the Med with limited relief. Only a handful of fixtures surfaced as the week drew to a close.

Outlook:
Softening. Without a pick-up in Black Sea grains or East Med steels, rates may edge lower.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)
Handy sentiment in MEG/India remained constructive, supported by a steady stream of early-December cargoes. Controlled tonnage and diversified requirements are keeping owners in command.

Outlook:
Firmer. The arrival of additional ballasters could change the equation, but for now, owners hold the rudder.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia / FE)
In the Far East, a surplus of prompt Handysize tonnage pushed short regional rates down sharply, while longer hauls softened more gradually. The south, however, maintained firmer waters, buoyed by Indonesian coal and stable Australian demand.

Outlook:
Stable to soft in the north; steady in the south. Balanced tonnage and resilient cargo flows may hold levels, though a strong rebound remains over the horizon.

Australia – Handysize
Australian Handysize markets were steady, supported by grain, salt, and minor bulk parcels. Prompt vessels enjoyed firm levels thanks to constrained coastal supply, though soft coal and nickel ore enquiry capped further upside.

Outlook:
Sideways to slightly firmer. Prompt ships can expect similar or modestly stronger numbers next week.

Ultramax Sector: Riding the Swells

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)
Ultramax sentiment was mixed. Early-week optimism faded as fronthaul stems thinned, though transatlantic runs held firm, assisted by weak East Med flows and a supportive Atlantic backdrop.

Outlook:
Sideways. Rates may recover if post-holiday cargoes appear, but the near-term tide remains flat.

West Coast South America (WCSA)
Mid-week fronthaul scarcity left late-December positions vulnerable. Owners who held out for premiums are meeting resistance as charterers explore alternative avenues.

Outlook:
Softening. Without fresh cargo or Pacific pull, a slight drop is probable.

East Coast South America (ECSA)
Ultramax in ECSA remained constructive. Tonnage is manageable, northern routes slightly better balanced than the south, and TA cargoes continue to trade robustly. Mid-December expectations are realistic, keeping sentiment steady.

Outlook:
Balanced to firm. The early appearance of new South Brazil stems will steer next week’s direction.

Northern Europe (Continent / NWE)
Firmer throughout, underpinned by consistent scrap and fertiliser flows. Fixtures landed close to last done, with activity picking up toward the weekend.

Outlook:
Stable. Fundamentals are robust enough to maintain current levels.

Mediterranean
Early-December Black Sea and East Med inactivity kept pressure on Ultramax rates. Ballastering vessels and cooling western momentum contributed to softness. Yet the Med/Black Sea corridor remains underpinned by clinker, steel, and Atlantic tightening.

Outlook:
Fractionally soft, but fundamentals hold. Inter-Med steel and clinker could provide a gentle lift if enquiry resumes.

South Africa
A stable week, buoyed by coal stems to WCI/AG and profitable backhaul opportunities. Premiums remain for preferred destinations.

Outlook:
Steady. Balanced supply should keep rates firm.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)
A firm tone prevailed, with PG→WCI/ECI routes benefitting from limited prompt tonnage and steady early-December stems. ECI–China activity showed renewed vigour.

Outlook:
Positive. Ongoing December cargoes should maintain upward Ultramax momentum.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia / FE)
Northern FE markets softened amid thinning NoPac and backhaul enquiry. The south stayed resilient, supported by Indonesian coal and India-bound flows. Australian volumes were moderate but steady, keeping a floor under rates.

Outlook:
Mixed. Northern markets may ease, while Southeast Asia holds comparatively firm.

Australia – Ultramax
Activity remained balanced, with manganese and grain flows stabilising the market. Limited coal enquiry and weather delays in Southeast Asia helped prevent any dip. Rates held near last done, with mid-December laycans sustaining stability.

Outlook:
Cautiously firm. Supply and cargo flows should maintain current levels into next week.

Navigational Forecast (1-Week)

Handysize: Firm conditions in ECSA and MEG/India; stability elsewhere. Med may soften without renewed Black Sea enquiry.
Ultramax: SE Asia and ECI offer bright spots; USG may rebound post-holiday, WCSA could ease. Atlantic fundamentals remain supportive.
Overall: Balanced-to-firm, buoyed by structurally tight tonnage in key regions.

Market Sentiment Snapshot

Owners: Confident, particularly in the Americas and Indian Ocean.

Charterers: Selectively defensive, patient where markets are soft, active where tonnage is tight.

Psychology: Constructively cautious — positioning ahead of December’s seasonal currents is key.

Closing Note

The maritime markets are alive with currents of opportunity. Success requires reading subtle shifts in supply, gauging regional flows, and anticipating the turns before the competition does. Those who can navigate these waters with insight — knowing when to ballast, when to fix, and when to hold — will find themselves at the helm of advantage.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions and forecasts may change without notice.