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Sailing Through Subtle Shifts: Dry Bulk Market Holds Course Amid Gentle Headwinds

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive

&

TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

The dry bulk market experienced a week of marginal corrections—more a change of breeze than a full gale. Despite softening sentiment across most segments, the Kamsarmax fleet stood tall with a 5.3% gain, while the rest drifted slightly lower: Capes fell by 8%, Ultramaxes by 3.85%, and Handies by 0.8%. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) slipped by 78 points to anchor at 1,991 on Friday, October 24.

Let’s chart the course of last week’s performance across vessel sizes and basins.

CAPES – Riding Out the Weather

For the Capesize vessels, the week began on a promising tack. Asian miners were active, and operators showed increased appetite, but heavy weather along the Chinese coast slowed port operations—reducing fixtures and trimming rates. On the Australia–China (C5) route, levels closed at US $9.71 per tonne.

Across the Atlantic, particularly in the North, initial momentum from trans-Atlantic and Asia-bound cargoes lost steam as tonnage availability rose. The South Atlantic mirrored the lull, with Brazil and West Africa maintaining low speeds. By Friday, the Brazil–China (C3) run stood at US $22.85/tonne, Europe–Asia (C9) at US $42,990/day, and trans-Atlantic rounds (C8) at US $21,640/day.

The message is clear: Capes are navigating a softer patch, with market balance now tilting slightly toward charterers. A revival of cargo inflow will be key to steadying this fleet’s course.

KAMSARMAX – The Star of the Week

The Kamsarmax segment shone like a well-trimmed sail catching a steady wind. Demand for ores and a tightening of available tonnage in the North Atlantic boosted returns, especially for East-bound voyages from the U.S. and European coasts.

Indicative numbers:

ECSA to Far East: US $15,500–17,500/day (delivery Asia)

Europe to Asia: US $24,000–26,000/day (delivery Europe)

Trans-Atlantic rounds: US $17,500–19,500/day (delivery Gibraltar)

In the Pacific, the combination of stable demand from the North Pacific and robust activity out of Australia pushed rates higher. Circular voyages in the SE Asia–Far East range fetched US $17,000–19,000/day.

Kamsarmaxes thus continue to outperform—proof that strategic positioning and fleet agility can still yield strong returns even in an uneven market. For shipowners and charterers alike, this class remains a vessel of opportunity.

SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX – Balancing Act in Mixed Seas

The Ultramax (UMX) and Supramax trades followed a more tempered rhythm. In Southeast Asia, coal and clinker shipments from Indonesia, alongside Australian grain cargoes, buoyed the market, with rates at US $15,500–17,000/day for regional rounds.

Further north, the Far East saw consistent flows from the NOPAC region and westward trades, though growing tonnage supply warrants watch. UMX rates stood at US $14,500–16,000/day for NOPAC rounds, US $16,000–17,500/day toward India, and US $14,500–16,000/day for Atlantic returns.

In the Middle East Gulf and West India, despite an uptick in vessels, owners held firm—forcing charterers to concede. Voyages to the Far East paid US $12,000–13,500/day, intra-regional trips US $12,500–14,000/day, and Atlantic runs US $11,000–12,500/day.

Across the Atlantic, sentiment eased. The U.S. Gulf experienced a downturn, particularly on trans-Atlantic and Asia routes. Most October cargoes were covered, and November demand looks subdued. Rates closed at US $24,500–26,000/day for Atlantic rounds and US $26,500–28,000/day for Asia trips.

In ECSA, diminishing local demand weighed on performance (to SE Asia/China US $26,000–27,500/day; trans-Atlantic US $24,500–26,000/day).

European activity mirrored the previous week: intra-European UMX rounds at US $22,000–23,500/day, scrap voyages to the Med US $27,500–29,000/day, and trips to Asia US $24,500–26,000/day.

The Mediterranean held firm, supported by strong grain and bulk movement from the Black Sea—particularly Russia and Ukraine. However, both East and West Med faced pressure from increased tonnage. A Canakkale-delivered UMX to Asia earned US $24,000–25,500/day, to the Atlantic US $12,500–14,000/day, and intra-Med voyages (outside conflict zones) US $14,500–16,000/day.

In essence, the Supramax–Ultramax market remains balanced, but vigilance over supply is essential as the tide could easily turn.

HANDYSIZE – Steady as She Goes

In the Handysize arena, stability prevailed. In Europe, stronger demand for late-October/early-November liftings helped maintain steady activity. Larger Handy units fetched US $18,000–19,500/day for regional rounds, US $23,000–24,500/day on scrap runs to the Med, and US $14,500–16,000/day trans-Atlantic.

The Mediterranean saw a contrasting rhythm—brisker West Med activity offset quieter conditions in the East. Handies over 36 K dwt earned US $12,500–14,000/day within the Med, US $13,500–15,000/day to Europe, US $11,500–13,000/day across the Atlantic, and US $15,500–17,000/day to Asia.

Across the Atlantic, activity in the U.S. Gulf picked up toward week’s end, though excess tonnage trimmed gains. Larger Handy vessels fixed US $21,000–22,500/day trans-Atlantic and US $19,000–20,500/day to Asia.

The ECSA region showed signs of fatigue—early-week cargoes stirred the waters but were insufficient to reverse the slide. Most November liftings are already covered. Rates closed at US $21,500–23,000/day to Europe/Mediterranean and US $19,500–21,000/day to Asia.

In Asia, northern routes improved, with healthy flows southward and toward West India and the Middle East Gulf. The southern market started sluggishly due to Singapore holidays but recovered mid-week. In West India and the Gulf, supply and demand remained balanced. Larger Handies concluded US $12,000–13,500/day for NOPAC/Far East rounds, US $13,500–15,000/day from SE Asia to China, and US $7,500–9,000/day from West India to China.

The Handy market, therefore, sails in relatively calm waters, its course steady but sensitive to regional winds.

Strategic Bearings – Reading the Market Compass

The week’s data reveal a market correction that is more marginal than material. The BDI’s 78-point dip reflects not turbulence but recalibration. The Kamsarmax segment continues to command favorable winds, while Capes and Ultramaxes adjust their trim to prevailing currents.

What stands out is the importance of strategic navigation:

Anticipate cargo flows before they crest.

Watch the balance of supply—tonnage positioning is everything.

Distinguish between temporary swells and underlying shifts.

The current market rewards those who understand its rhythm — those who steer with foresight rather than follow the wake of others. In a sea where conditions change by the hour, experience, analytical discipline, and a sharp sense of timing remain the best instruments on your bridge.

As maritime professionals, our task is not merely to observe the tides but to master them — to translate the data into strategy, and strategy into opportunity.

Disclaimer: This report and the information contained herein are provided for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.