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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 15th September 2025

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant & Chartering Executive

& Commercial Director TMC SHIPPING

Riding the Currents: A Tactical Glance at the Dry Bulk Market

In shipping, timing is everything. And while the winds may shift and the seas may swell, those who read the horizon early tend to sail ahead. This week’s dry bulk market offered a mix of steady trades, tightening tonnage, and regional surges—each with its own rhythm and signal. Below is a, not just of what happened, but of what’s likely to unfold next. Because in this business, foresight is the true freight.

1. 1.Handysize Sector Overview: Trimmed for Speed

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC) The US Gulf held its line, but the real action was on the East Coast, where demand picked up steam midweek and closed on a firm note. Charterers showed growing appetite, and the tone suggests we’re heading into next week with the wind at our backs.

East Coast South America (ECSA) ECSA continues to chart a bullish course. With a lean tonnage list and spot vessels snapped up quickly, owners are enjoying favorable conditions. Unless unexpected weather hits, expect this buoyancy to hold.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE) Cargo flow surged, and fixture volumes followed suit. The market is clearly tilting toward owners, and with momentum building, this region could become a key ballast for Q4 strategies.

Mediterranean Rates climbed steadily, driven by clinker and cement cargoes. Charterers are already locking in period tonnage to hedge against further rises. Western Med mirrored the Continent’s strength, and all signs point to continued elevation.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India) A quiet week, with little to report. Activity was sluggish, and the forecast remains flat. For now, this region is becalmed.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE) Tight tonnage and strong demand from NOPAC and Aussie routes kept the market firm across both Northern and Southern sectors. The sentiment is modestly optimistic—if Northern demand holds, we may see a fresh breeze next week.

2. Ultramax Sector Overview: Adjusting the Trim

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC) Transatlantic demand picked up, with charterers casting their nets across the Continent and West Med. Front Haul routes were less lively, but with supply thinning, next week could bring sharper rate movements.

East Coast South America (ECSA) Cargo lists improved slightly, though fixture activity remained subdued. Front Haul demand provided the main lift, and with ballasters arriving from West Africa, the market may be preparing for a turn.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE) Scrap cargoes gave owners leverage to push rates higher. The tone is firm, and unless volumes dip, this upward drift should continue.

Mediterranean Western Med was flat, and Eastern Med lacked spark. The Black Sea offered isolated opportunities, but not enough to shift the overall sentiment. Expect a muted tone unless fresh cargoes emerge.

South Africa No surprises here. Minor fluctuations kept the market steady, but without a demand uptick, the outlook remains neutral.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India) Fertilizer cargoes out of India lifted rates, but demand is expected to ease. A short-lived spike, unless new cargoes surface.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE) NOPAC cargoes supported the North, while Southeast Asia lagged. A demand push is needed to reverse the trend. Until then, the region remains split.

Markets are never static—they breathe, shift, and surprise. But with the right charts and a seasoned eye, you can anticipate the next swell before it hits. This week’s data doesn’t just tell us where we are—it hints at where we’re going. And if you’re navigating these waters, it helps to sail with someone who knows the currents.

Fair winds and following seas.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.