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Turning into 2025, vessels have added one year to their age

Turning into 2025, vessels have added one year to their age, significantly altering the current discussion around fleet age groups. As of January 2025, the current bulk carrier fleet stands at 14,109 vessels (>= 10,000 DWT). 1,856 vessels (13% out of total bulk carrier fleet) are aged 21 years old or older, a 12% increase compared to the similar period of 2024. The 16-20-year-old age group currently comprises 2,269 vessels (16% of the total bulk carrier fleet), a 29% increase compared to January 2024. Regarding modern vessels (0-5 years old), we didn't observe any significant change. While approximately 500 bulk carriers joined the active fleet in 2024, around 448 vessels built in 2019 transitioned into the 6-10-year-old age group. One of the most aged sectors is the Handysize sector, with an average age of 13.5 years old. Currently, 15% of the total Handysize fleet, comprising 426 ships, is 21 years old or older, while only 260 vessels are on order. The current tanker fleet, comprising 7,674 vessels (>= 10,000 DWT), includes 1,401 vessels (18% of the total tanker fleet) that are 21 years old or older, representing a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The 16-20-year-old age group comprises 2,232 vessels, constituting 29% of the total tanker fleet, reflecting a 13% increase from January 2024. In contrast, modern vessels (0-5 years old) account for only 13% of the tanker fleet, with 1,007 vessels in this category. The MR1 sector is significantly aged, boasting an average age of 17.1 years. A concerning 34% of the 826-ship fleet is 21 years or older, while the order book for new MR1 vessels remains relatively small at 63 ships. The Panamax/LR1 segment follows, with an average age of 15.8 years. Notably, 16% of the 468-ship fleet is 21 years or older, while the orderbook for new Panamax/LR1 vessels stands at 69 vessels. The Aframax/LR2 sector also exhibits a significant age, with an average age of 13.6 years. A significant share of the Aframax/LR2 fleet, 17% of the 468 ships, is over 21 years old, while 225 new vessels are currently on order.

Remaining on the fleet front and following the recent findings by the U.S. Trade Representative regarding China's dominance in the maritime sector, now under the Trump administration, the next policy decisions will be highly consequential. Current fleet statistics solidifies China's leading role in global shipbuilding. Chinese shipyards currently possess a substantial share of the existing global fleet above 10,000 DWT, encompassing 47% of cargo ships, 24% of tankers, 35% of container ships, and 14% of gas carriers. This dominance is further amplified by order book statistics. Chinese yards have secured a commanding 70% of cargo ship orders, 68% of tanker orders, and 75% of container ship orders, pointing towards a continued consolidation of their market position.

There are rumours that the new US administration will try to restrict Chinas's shipping dominance through various ways including sanctions towards Chinese made vessels & shipyards. However, potential U.S. interventions face several practical challenges. Any ban on Chinese-built vessels would significantly disrupt global shipping markets & potentially impact U.S. export competitiveness through higher freight rates. Moreover, many Chinese-built vessels are owned by Western interests, complicating any restrictive measures. The global maritime industry's current need for shipyard capacity, particularly for retrofitting existing vessels & building new environmentally compliant ships, also makes aggressive action against Chinese yards problematic.

S&P Activity
Dry:

On the Capesize sector, Chinese buyers acquired the Scrubber fitted "Salt Lake City" - 172K/2005 Daewoo for USD 16.2 mills. On the Supramax we noted 3x vessels to find new owners, the "Jag Rishi" - 57K/2011 Cosco Zhoushan was sold for high USD 11 mills, the "Protector St. Raphael" - 57K/2010 Xiamen changed hands for region USD 11 mills, while the 5-year-older "Lorentzos"- 54K/2005 New Century was sold for USD 9 mills. Vietnamese buyers, acquired the Handysize "Woodgate" - 28K/2011 Imabari for USD 10.5 mills, while the one-year-older "Blessing SW" - 30K/2010 Shikoku changed hands for high USD 8 mills.

Tanker:

2x Aframax vessels, the "Amax Anthem"- 116K/2011 Samsung and the "Amax Avenue" - 116K/2010 Samsung were sold for USD 39.5 mills each. The Small tanker "Woolim 3"- 11K/2018 STX was sold for USD 24 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.