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Last updateΠεμ, 07 Νοε 2024 3pm

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Dry bulk cargo market slows during Golden Week in China

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Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Director TMC MARITIME CO.

Dr. Folios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant

The dry bulk cargo market saw losses last week, with Capes posting a double-digit weekly decline, followed by Panamaxes and Ultramaxes, and only Handies ending the week in the green, if only marginally. A major factor in this image was Golden Week in China and various holidays in the Far East. More specifically, Capes fell by 12.09%, Kamsarmaxes -4%, Ultramaxes(63) -3.70% and Handies +0.35%, compared to the previous week. Thus, the BDI rose by 182 credits compared to the previous week and closed at 1928 credits on Friday, October 4.
Let's see, in more detail, how the dry bulk cargo market by vessels size moved last week, starting with CAPEs. In Asia the week started strongly with the biggest miners active. But the start of China's golden week quickly slowed, adding to capacity build-up and dropping rates. Index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed Friday at $10.73/tn.
In the Atlantic Basin and specifically in Brazil, the large gap between the offers of charterers and shipowners did not allow many discussions to conclude in closures, as a result of which a recession was observed. In the north the picture was similar with reduced activity for both transatlantic travel and to Asia. Indexes on Friday for trips from Brazil to China reached $28.09/tn (for route C3), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $54.06K/d (for route C9 ) and Transatlantic round trips at $26K/day (for route C8).
Regarding Kamsarmaxes, in the Atlantic basin and particularly in the north there may have been a steady flow of cargo, but the abundance of options for charterers forced shipowners to narrow their ideas. Further south, Latin America saw several improvements mid-week despite a slow market start. For example, the rates for the trips from the E. Coast of S. America (ECSA) to the Far East reached $25-27K/day (America delivery), Continent to Asia at $20.5-22.5K/day (Continent delivery) and transatlantic round trips in $8.5-10.5K/day (Gibraltar delivery).
On the other hand, Asia saw strong activity with several closures at the start of the week, while the appearance of new cargoes from Australia in the second half pushed up rates further. Also, increased demand from the North Pacific offered additional support. Indonesia-Far East round-trip rates moved to $12.5-14.5K/day (Far East delivery).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes, in Southeast Asia the market declined but the limited number of vessels restrained the decline in rates. UMXs rates for travel between S. E. Asia and the Far East went to 17.5-19K/day. Further north, in the Far East the market was quiet as expected due to the holidays. Also, most charterers maintained a wait-and-see attitude. We wait to see next week how the market moves after the holidays. UMXs rates for North Pacific (NOPAC) round trips moved to $14-15.5K/day, W. C. India round trips to $14-15.5K/day and Atlantic Basin (BH) round trips to $ 15.5-17K/day.
In the Gulf Middle East and West C. India the market was quiet and only small glimpses of some Indian cargoes offered some attractive options to shipowners. UMXs rates for Far East trips ranged from $14-15.5K/day (from Middle East Gulf (MEG)–West C. India (WCI)), for short-haul trips between Middle Wast Gulf–West C. India at $12-13.5 K/day and trips to the Atlantic Basin at $8.5-10 K/day.
In the Atlantic Basin and especially the American Gulf presented mixed trends. On the one hand, transatlantic trips, which showed a drop, and on the other hand, trips to the east, especially to W. C. India, which remained at the same levels. It is worth noting that there was intense competition from Panamaxes. UMXs rates for Transatlantic trips reached $19-20.5K/day and to Asia $22.5-24K/day. The ECSA region experienced another quiet week, with limited demand and ever-increasing capacity supply. So the charterers reduced their ideas even further. SMXs rates for trips to the S. E. Asia-China moved to $23.5-25K/day and for Transatlantic trips (Mediterranean/Continent) to $15-16.5K/day.
Continent moved up as many of the region's vessels found some employment mostly in scrap and this had a direct impact on rates. UMXs rates for round-local trips moved to $15-16.5K/day, for trips with SCRAP cargoes to the Mediterranean at $14.5-16K/day and to Asia at $19.5-21K/ day. The Mediterranean was quite active in the first half of the week while, on the contrary, it was calm in the second half. We saw quite a few cargoes in both the Western and Eastern Mediterranean, while wheat cargoes also started to increase. For example, it is reported that a UMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $21-22.5K/day (Canakkale delivery), to the other side of the Atlantic at $10.5-12K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 12-13.5K/day (outside war zones).
In the Handies market, in Continent the market showed little mobility due to low cargo availability and oversupply of vessels. In addition, in several cases there were several days of waiting until the loading dates. Rates for the largest vessels in the class, for round trips reached $11-12.5K/day, to the Mediterranean with scrap cargoes at $11.5-13K/day and for Transatlantic trips at $8.5-10K/day day.
The Mediterranean moved positively due to the decrease in the number of vessels in the area. In addition, the market was strengthened with new cargoes from Ukraine and Russia. Larger vessel rates (above 36K tonnes DWT) for intra-Med trips moved to $10.5-12K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to Europe at $9-10.5K/day (delivery at Canakkale) , to the other side of the Atlantic at $8.5-10K/day (delivery to Canakkale) and to Asia at $13.5-15K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin, in the US Gulf the market started the week slow and continued at the same pace due to the lack of cargoes for the first fortnight of October. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the class for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged from $14.5-16K/day and to Asia at $17.5-19K/day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA) region was particularly active with a high volume of closures and a steady flow of new cargo. In addition several vessels found some employment. Thus, the downward trend of the rates of the previous weeks was stopped and they started to stabilize. Thus, the charters of larger vessels from the ECSA area for Transatlantic trips (Continent – Mediterranean) moved to $13.5-15K/day and to Asia at $16.5-18K/day.
In Asia, however, there was a decline in activity despite the interruptions in China, due to various sporadic cargoes and capacity supply was also limited. Further west in W. C. India and the Gulf calm prevailed and only some cargoes for the largest vessels of the class disturbed the calm waters. Far East and NOPAC round trip larger class vessels closed at $12.5-14K/day, from S. E. Asia to China at $10.5-12K/day and from the W. C. India to China at $10.5-12K/day.

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice

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