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Xclusiv: The Wet market is fully awakened

While the Dry market has gone into hibernation, the Wet market is fully awakened and running with the VLCC rally being the most impressive one. Fuelled by the results of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the global energy crisis, the rates in the wet market have risen above expectation with the VLCC TCEs for non-eco vessels rising by USD 65,000 per day, finally lifting the VLCC sector out of the negative territory. Since June, vessel demand has risen almost 25%, while the cargo volumes have gone up by about 27% and the sanctions on Russian oil have given a great boost to the US Gulf exports which have already doubled and day by day increasing. Europe is trying to find alternative crude oil sources and the redirection of Russian oil from EU to Asian countries has given a great boost to global VLCC demand. These factors along with the very tight orderbook became the catalyst for the wet market revival and the VLCC rally.

Speaking about the orderbook and according to our data until recently no VLCC’s had been ordered within 2022. This changed this week as Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines ordered two VLCCs, two LNG dual-fuel 309,000-dwt vessels at Dalian COSCO KHI Ship Engineering with schedule delivery between 2025 and 2026. Of course, there have, over the past few years, been orders from ADNOC (2020 - which will be used for their own cargoes), Maran (2021 - against Shell charters), AET (2021 - against Shell charters), Frontline (2021) & International Seaways (2021- against 7- year charter to Shell) but this is the first standalone VLCC order for the last 1,5 year at least. Until today there were only 39 VLCCs orders in the orderbook, with 19 of them scheduled for a 2022 delivery date and the rest slated to be delivered within 2023 and 2024.

It’s very interesting to analyse why investors and owners were avoiding new VLCC orders until now.

One reason that may explain this significantly reduced appetite for newbuilding VLCCs is the uncertainty concerning the new emission policies. As it is not known yet nor what kind of fuel will prevail neither which technology to adopt, investors hesitate to order ships that they may be unable to operate efficiently despite being modern. Moreover, in 2021 we saw an upsurge in steel prices, which drove the newbuilding prices to new highs. More specifically, today a VLCC costs around USD 118 mills which equates to an increase of 28%, 36% & 15% compared to 2019, 2020 & 2021 respectively. Very important is that, for around 19 months, the VLCC time charter equivalent rate assessments were negative. Those reasons in combination with that newbuilding slots being filled up in many yards till 2025-2026 have prevented the shipowners to invest in newbuilding VLCC’s. More generally the shipyards prefer to deal with orders for more expensive/profitable vessels, i.e. LNG carriers, than VLCCs. Finally, we have also witnessed that close to 30% of the VLCC’s fleet falls within the 0-5 years old age group, while the average age of VLCC’s fleet is 10.4 years. If we consider that 59 active vessels are over 20 years and about 146 VLCCs between 16 and 20 years old, we can see that the possibility of a VLCC fleet reduction in the coming years is quite high.

But things are seeming to change. The wet market and especially the VLCC rates are surging, the drop in steel prices (31.5% down since May 2021 when soared to its record high) can and should reduce building costs, pushing down the newbuilding prices and the first order without a time charter attached is a fact. The Iranian attempt to increase production and export of crude oil, the return of Venezuela as oil supplier towards Europe and the official embargo of Russian oil from the EU, which will start on December 5, create expectations for even higher rates on the wet market and some analysts expect to see the spot market for VLCCs approaching USD 100,000. The positive atmosphere will probably lead to more VLCC orders and a general increase of the tanker’s orderbook. The only thing that could negatively affect the tanker freight market right now and put a brake to the VLCC rally, is any decision to cut production by OPEC+ and a global economic recession.

Looking the way indices moved during the week, the BDI closed at 1,123 points mark, down by 14.92%. BCI continued its downturn and closed the week at 474 points mark, down by 45.33%, BPI closed at 1,424 points mark, down by 18.58%, and BHSI closed at 938 points mark, down by 3.1%, while BSI was the only index with the head up high and closed at 1,763 points mark, up by 3.83%. Furthermore, BDTI closed the week with a decrease of 0.19% at 1,550 points and BCTI closed the week with a decrease of 2.79% at 1,289 points mark.

Sale and Purchase:

On the dry, the lower rates have reduced S&P activity. Clients of Pangaea logistics acquired the Supramax “Clarke Quay”- 56K/2010 Hyundai Vinashin for USD 17.1 mills.
On the tanker segment, activity remains firm. On the VLCC sector, the Scrubber fitted “G. Dream” - 300K/2022 Hyundai Samho sold for USD 108 mills to clients of Hyundai Merchant Marine. Furthermore, the “Tsurusaki” - 301K/2002 IHI Marine United, has changed hands for USD 31.6 mills. The Suezmax “Ridgebury Captain Drogin”- 166K/2007 HHI, was sold for USD 29 mills to clients of Performance Shipping. Performance Shipping has acquired also the BWTS & Scrubber fitted clean trading LR2 “Alpine Amalia” - 105K/2010 HHI for USD 36.5 mills. On the same sector, the “Celsius Esbjerg” - 113K/2009 New Times & the “Celsius Everett” - 113K/2008 New Times were sold for USD 64 mills enbloc. Finally, in the MR2 sector, Capital Maritime has sold 2x CPP Eco MRs, the “Alkaios”- 50K/2016 Samsung Ningbo & the “Archon” - 50K/2016 Samsung Ningbo for USD 36.5 mills each to clients of Tufton.