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Last updateΠεμ, 26 Δεκ 2024 4pm

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Stabilizing trends in the dry bulk cargo market amid international volatility

bulk ships 000

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Director TMC MARITIME CO.

Dr. Fotios –Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant

The dry bulk cargo market saw marginal improvements, thanks to larger sizes, while smaller sizes fell slightly, compared to the previous week. More specifically, Capes increased by 3.3%, Kamsarmaxes +9.9%, Supramaxes -5.3% and Handies -3.57%, compared to the previous week. Thus, the BDI rose by 43 credits (compared to the previous week) and closed at 1503 credits on Friday, January 19.
Let's see, in more detail, how the dry bulk cargo market by vessel’s size moved last week, starting with CAPEs. In Asia the week started without much action. However as the days passed demand improved with more coal cargoes from Australia. Thus several vessels found some employment and the week ended on a positive note. Index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed on Friday at $8.77/tn.
In the Atlantic the market started off lower as activity was sluggish. The market then picked up steam with more cargo from the north and south. Indexes on Friday for trips from Brazil to China reached up to $23.83/tn (for route C3), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $43.19K/d (for route C9 ) and Transatlantic round trips at $19.25K/day (for route C8).
Regarding Kamsarmaxes, in the Atlantic Basin the market moved up with the south leading this course and grain cargoes the protagonists, followed by the north. For example, the rates for the trips from the E. Coast S. of America (ECSA) to the Far East reached up to $10.5-12.5K/day (delivery to SE Asia), from Continent to Asia to $23.5-25.5K/day (delivery to Continent) and transatlantic round trips at $13.5-15.5K/day (Gibraltar delivery).
On the other hand, mixed trends were observed in Asia. On the one hand, grains from the North Pacific and the east coast of South America sparked interest, and on the other, Indonesia and Australia were calm without many alternatives for shipowners. Indonesia-Far East round trip rates moved to $7-9K/day (Far East delivery).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes, in Southeast Asia the market came under pressure as many cargoes moved their loading dates to February. So the demand could not cover the supply of ships. SMXs rates for travel between S.E. Asia and the Far East went to 11.5-13K/day. Further north, in the Far East, the market continued without particular changes. On the one hand there were more steel cargoes but on the other hand the oversupply of capacity did not allow a rise in rates. SMXs round trip NOPAC rates ranged $8-9.5K/day, India round trips $6-7.5K/day and Atlantic (BH) round trips $5.5- 7K/day.
In the Middle East Gulf and West C. India the market showed small positive corrections, however there is strong nervousness after the Iran-Pakistan attacks. SMXs rates for Far East trips ranged from $17.5-19K/day (from Middle East Gulf (MEG) – West C.India (WCI)), for short-haul trips between Middle East Gulf – West C. India at $13-14.5 K/day and trips to the Atlantic at $ 7-8.5 K/day.
In the Atlantic and especially the American Gulf, there was a recession after the charterers preferred to wait for the Chinese New Year to move. SMXs rates for Transatlantic trips fell to $17-18.5K/day and to Asia $20.5-22K/day. ECSA's region advanced on the back of increased cargo demand to Asia and for transatlantic trips and reduced vessel supply. The rates of SMXs for trips to N.A. Asia-China moved to $22-23.5K/day and for Transatlantic travel (Mediterranean/Continent) to $17-18.5K/day.
Continent showed improvements with more cargoes from the region. So the shipowners found an opportunity to raise the. SMX rates for round-trip local trips moved to $17-18.5K/day, for trips with SCRAP cargoes to the Mediterranean at $16.5-18K/day and to Asia at $24.5-26K/ day. The Mediterranean strengthened with more cargo, while the number of vessels remained stable. This is how the shipping market improved. Indicatively, it is reported that a SMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $24.5-26K/day (Canakkale delivery), to the other side of the Atlantic at $8.5-10K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 9.5-11 K/day (outside war zones).
In the Handy size market, in Continent the market showed the first signs of recovery after a period that moved negatively. The bad weather conditions and the operational problems they caused in the ports upset the balance of supply and demand in favor of the shipowners. Rates for the largest vessels in the class, for round trips reached up to $11-12.5K/day, to the Mediterranean with Scrap cargoes at $14.5-16K/day and for Transatlantic trips at $9.5-11K /day.
Mediterranean showed improvements to all routes. The increase in cargoes helped the supply of vessels to decrease, driving the rates to higher levels. Larger vessel rates (over 36K tonnes DWT) for intra-Med trips moved to $9.5-11K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to Continent at $10-11.5K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to the other side of the Atlantic at $8.5-10K/day (delivery to Canakkale) and to Asia at $17-18.5K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin, in the US Gulf the market declined as there were not many cargoes while at the same time there was a concentration of capacity. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the class for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged from $17.5-19K/day and to Asia at $19-20.5K/day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA) region was under pressure for most of the week and only showed signs of improvement in the last few days with some loads towards the end of the month. Thus, the charters of larger vessels from the ECSA area for Transatlantic trips (Continent – Mediterranean) moved to $15-16.5K/day and to Asia at $21-22.5K/day.
In Asia, specifically in the south, the week started without much action, however, some jobs from Australia stimulated demand towards the end of the week, but without improving the overall sentiment of the market. In the north the week started with a lot of promises with some demands from the North Pacific but the continuation was not comparable. Further west, in the Middle East Gulf and W. C. India, there was strong movement, increasing rate levels. Far East and NOPAC round trip charters on larger vessels closed at $8-9.5K/day, from S. E. Asia to China at $9-10.5K/day and from the West. C. India to China at $11.5-13K/day.

Wishing you and all of your loved ones health and happiness in the new year

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice

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