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Losses on the Dry Cargo Market
- Λεπτομέρειες
- Δημοσιεύτηκε στις Δευτέρα, 10 Ιουλίου 2023 10:01
Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Manager TMC MARITIME CO.
Dr. Fotios–Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant
The dry bulk cargo market continued to decline as all sizes showed a decline. The biggest losses were recorded in the Capes, followed by the smaller sizes compared to the previous week. In detail, Capes fell by 10.68%, Kamsarmaxes -4.5%, Supramaxes -3.4% and Handies -4.9%, compared to the previous week. Thus, the BDI fell by 82 credits (compared to the previous week) and closed at 1009 credits on Friday, July 7.
Let's see, in more detail, how the dry bulk cargo market by vessel’s size moved last week, starting with CAPEs. In Asia the market started the week with more demand. Demand may have moved at the same pace, but the oversupply of vessels left no room for an increase in rates. However, at the end of the week there was a good volume of bookings. Index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed on Friday at $8.068/tn.
The Atlantic Basin saw a lack of activity due to reduced demand. So the rates went down. However, at the end of the week we saw an improvement in activity resulting in a slight increase in rates. Indexes on Friday for trips from Brazil to China reached up to $20.03/tn (for route C3), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $30.08K/d (for route C9 ) and Transatlantic round trips at $10.09K/day (for route C8).
Regarding the Kamsarmaxes, in the Atlantic Basin and especially in the north the market showed a satisfactory volume of cargoes with enough grain and minerals, while the supply of vessels was limited. In the South, most of the loads up to the middle of the month have been covered and now all the weight falls on the loads at the end of the month. But future forecasts are on a downward trend. For example, the rates for the journeys from the E. Coast of S. America (ECSA) to the Far East reached up to $20-22K/day (S. America delivery), from Continent to Asia at $15.5-17.5K/day (Continent delivery) and the circular Transatlantic trips at $6-8K/day (Gibraltar delivery).
On the other hand, in Asia the market fell further as demand was not enough to drive up rates. The North Pacific was calm and only cargoes from Eastern Australia and Indonesia supported the market. So many vessel owners preferred to move to the Atlantic Basin. Indonesia-Far East round trip rates moved to $6-8K/day (Far East delivery).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes Southeast Asia was kept at the same levels. While there were enough coal cargoes, it was not enough to raise the rates as several vessels from the north were looking for occupation. SMXs rates for trips between S. E. Asia and the Far East rose to 8.5-10K/day. Further north, in the Far East the market eased as steel and nickel cargoes were reduced. Only the round trips in the North Pacific showed any interest. SMXs round trips to NOPAC rates ranged between $6.5-8K/day, W. C. India round trips $6-7.5K/day and Atlantic Basin (BH) round trips $5-6; 5K/day.
In the Middle East’s Gulf and West C. India the market seems not to have returned from the EID break as activity was subdued with only some local business. SMXs rates regarding Far East trips ranged between $8-9.5K/day (from Middle East’s Gulf (MEG) – West C. India (WCI)), short-haul between Middle East Gulf – West C India at $7-8.5K /day and trips to the Atlantic Basin at $5.5-7K/day.
In the Atlantic Basin and especially the American Gulf showed an improvement as there were more cargoes to Asia followed by transatlantics. SMX rates for Transatlantic trips remained at $9-10.5K/day and to Asia at $14-15.5K/day. The ECSA [ECSA - East Coast South America] region declined due to increased capacity supply. Since the rest of the Atlantic Basin does not show much interest, many vessels moved to the area, resulting in increased competition between shipowners. The rates of SMXs for trips to S. E. Asia-China moved to $14-15.5K/day and for Transatlantic trips (Mediterranean/Continent ) to $11.5-13K/day.
In Continent the market showed improvements as it strengthened with more cargoes while the supply of vessels remained stable. SMX rates for round-trip local trips moved to $9-10.5K/day, for trips with SCRAP cargoes to the Mediterranean at $9-10.5K/day and to Asia at $11-12.5K/day day. The Mediterranean has come under pressure due to a lack of demand and an increase in available vessels in the region. For example, it is reported that an SMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $11-12.5K/day (Canakkale delivery), to the other side of the Atlantic at $6-7.5K/day and into the Mediterranean at $ 6.5-8 K/day (outside war zones).
In the Handies market, in Continent the market remained at the same levels. There may have been more cargo in the area but several vessels moved from the Western Mediterranean increasing the competition. Fares for the largest vessels in the class, for round trips rose to $7.5-9K/day, to the Mediterranean with Scrap cargoes to $6.5-8K/day and for Transatlantic trips to $5-6.5K /day.
The Mediterranean was boosted with more grain cargoes. Thus, the fall of the previous days seemed to stabilize, while there is optimism for an improvement in the market in the next period. Larger vessel rates (over 36K tonnes DWT) for intra-Med trips moved to $6.5-8K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to Continent at $6.5-8K/day (delivery at Canakkale) , to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $5.5-7K/day (Canakkale delivery) and to Asia at $9.5-11K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin, in the US Gulf the market remained under pressure as supply far outstripped demand. So many vessel owners were investigating the possibility of moving further south. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the class for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged Between $6-7.5K/day and to Asia at $8.5-10K/day.
In the East Coast of South America (ECSA) region the market lost ground as a lack of demand was evident. Thus the concentration of capacity continued. Thus, the charterers of larger vessels from the ECSA area for Transatlantic trips (Continent – Mediterranean) moved to $11-12.5K/day and to Asia at $13.5-15K/day.
Calm reigned in Asia. There may have been a reduction in available vessels in both the North and the South, but the flow of cargo was limited. Calm also prevailed in the Gulf of the Middle East and the West C. India, although the balance between supply and demand kept rates at the same levels. Far East and NOPAC round trip charterers on larger vessels closed at $7-8.5K/day, from S. E. Asia to China at $7.5-9K/day and from the West C. India to China at $6.5-8K/day.