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Last updateΔευ, 30 Σεπ 2024 1pm

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Movement in the dry bulk cargo market just ahead of Golden Week in China

Bulk carrier 1

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Director TMC MARITIME CO.

Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant

The dry bulk cargo market continued last week’s positive run with Capes posting double digit weekly gains and Ultramaxes and Handies closing the week in the green. Only the Panamaxes declined with the biggest losses occurring in the Atlantic. More specifically, Capes are up 14.05%, Kamsarmaxes -5.99%, Ultramaxes(63) +1.35% and Handies +0.38%, compared to the previous week. Thus, the BDI rose by 133 credits compared to the previous week and closed at 2110 credits on Friday, September 27.
Let’s see, in more detail, how the dry bulk cargo market by vessel’s size moved last week, starting with CAPEs. In Asia, the market progressed without strong differences compared to the previous week in terms of demand and supply. But the good image of the AAtlanticBasin lured her up. Index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed on Friday at $11.48/tn.
In the Atlantic Basin, the star was the northerly which started the week up and continued the same course until the end of the week for both the trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin and to Asia. The south did not show significant changes compared to the previous week, but closed the Friday with marginal gains. Indexes on Friday for trips from Brazil to China reached up to $28.34/tn (for route C3), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $58.13K/d (for route C9 ) and Transatlantic round trips at $31.79K/day (for route C8).
Regarding Kamsarmaxes, in the Atlantic Basin and particularly in the north the market started strongly with some new cargoes. However, later in the week the flow of cargo was not renewed, dropping the rates. In the south, interest was focused on the loadings of the 1st half of October. It is worth noting that loadings for mid-October closed at higher numbers than the corresponding ones for the beginning of the month. For example, the rates for the trips from the E. Coast of S. America (ECSA) to the Far East reached up to $27-29K/day (America delivery), Continent to Asia at $21.5-23.5K/day (Continent delivery) and transatlantic round trips in $9.5-11.5K/day (Gibraltar delivery).
On the other hand, in Asia the market moved in two gears. During the first days of the week the large volume of cargoes from the North Pacific and Indonesia boosted the confidence of shipowners who raised their numbers. In the second half of the week, demand was reduced, with the result that charterers gained the upper hand. Indonesia-Far East round-trip rates moved to $14-16K/day (Far East delivery).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes, in South East Asia the market continued positively with a steady flow of loads mainly to China. However, the increase in vessels is expected to create pressure in the next period. UMXs rates for travel between S. E. Asia and the Far East went to 18.5-20K/day. Further north, in the Far East the market started the week with new cargoes and plenty of movement in both the North Pacific and the Atlantic. UMXs rates for North Pacific (NOPAC) round trips moved to $14.5-16K/day, W. C. India round trips to $15-16.5K/day and Atlantic (BH) round trips to $ 15.5-17K/day.
In the Gulf of the Middle East and West C. India the market progressed without particular differences compared to the previous week. Thus, rates continued to show downward trends. UMXs rates for Far East trips ranged between $14.5-16K/day (from Middle’s East Gulf (MEG) – West C. Indies (WCI)), for short-haul trips between Middle’s East Gulf – West C. India at $12-13.5 K/day and trips to the Atlantic Basin $8.5-10 K/day.
In the Atlantic Basin and especially the US Gulf showed upward trends during the ASBA week, with a satisfactory volume of grain and petcoke cargoes. UMXs rates for Transatlantic trips reached up to $21-22.5K/day and to Asia $23-24.5K/day. The ECSA region experienced another quiet week without much cargo for both Asia and the other side of the Atlantic Basin. At the same time, the number of vessels remained high. The rates of SMXs for trips to the S. E. Asia-China moved to $22.5-24K/day and for Transatlantic trips (Mediterranean/Continent) to $16-17.5K/day.
Continent came under pressure as the supply of vessels was stable while demand was limited. UMXs rates for round-local trips moved to $14-15.5K/day, for trips with SCRAP cargoes to the Mediterranean at $13.5-15K/day and to Asia at $18.5-20K/ day. The Mediterranean declined as the supply of vessels continued to increase. Ship owners who were in no rush to book their ship preferred to wait. It is worth noting that the western Mediterranean looks the best image from the east. For example, it is reported that a UMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $21-22.5K/day (Canakkale delivery), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $10.5-12K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 11.5-13K/day (outside war zones).
In the Handies market, in Continent the market was quiet. It may be that the list of vessels was limited and the activity did not help to bring about any positive change. However, it should be noted that the larger vessels of the class could more easily find some cargo. Rates for the largest vessels in the class, for round trips reached up to $10-11.5K/day, to the Mediterranean with scrap cargoes at $13.5-15K/day and for Transatlantic trips at $8.5-10K/day day.
The Mediterranean was kept at the same levels or even slightly lower mainly due to seasonality and reduced demand from the Black Sea. Larger vessel rates (above 36K tonnes DWT) for intra-Med trips moved to $8.5-10K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to Continent at $9-10.5K/day (delivery at Canakkale) , to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $8-9.5K/day (delivery to Canakkale) and to Asia at $13.5-15K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin, in the American Gulf the market lost ground due to an oversupply of vessels. So, the charterers seized the opportunity to impose their ideas. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the class for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged between 5-16.5K/day and to Asia at $17.5-19K/day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA) retreated despite the fact that there were many discussions, which did not result in any closure. In addition, the supply of vessels exceeded the number of cargoes. Thus, the charters of larger vessels from the ECSA area for Transatlantic trips (Continent – Mediterranean) moved to $13.5-15K/day and to Asia at $16.5-18K/day.
In Asia and especially in the south the improved cargo volume and the limited number of vessels gave confidence to the ship owners to increase their ideas. But this had the effect of widening the gap between ship owners and charterers, reducing closures. Further west in the Gulf of the Middle East and India calms prevailed resulting in lower rates. Far East and NOPAC round trip charters on larger vessels closed at $13.5-15K/day, from S. E. Asia to China at $10.5-12K/day and from the West C. India to China at $10-11.5K/day.

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice

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