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Last updateΠαρ, 27 Σεπ 2024 8pm

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Positive signs from the dry cargo market

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Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Director TMC MARITIME CO.

Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant

The dry bulk cargo market showed signs of recovery with improvements taking place across all sizes. However Panamaxes showed the biggest increases followed by the rest. More specifically, Capes are up 4.72%, Kamsarmaxes +7.71%, Ultramaxes(63) +1.97% and Handies unchanged 0%, compared to the previous week. Thus, the BDI rose by 87 credits compared to the previous week and closed at 1977 credits on Friday, September 20.
Let's see, in more detail, how the dry cargo market by vessel’s size moved last week, starting with CAPEs. In Asia the week started strongly with the three main charterers in the market increasing the volume of closings and charters. But in the middle of the week, a decline in activity was observed, interrupting the market's upward trend. Index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed Friday at $11.69/tn.
In the Atlantic Basin both north and south began the week at slow speeds. However as the days went on Brazil and West Africa were active with quite a few cargoes to China followed by the North Atlantic. Indexes on Friday for trips from Brazil to China reached up to $28.04/tn (for route C3), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $52.81K/d (for route C9 ) and Transatlantic round trips at $20.43K/day (for route C8).
Regarding the Kamsarmaxes, the Atlantic basin saw heavy activity mainly in the north with quite a few mineral and grain cargoes to the other side of the Atlantic Basin. In the south, the focus was on the 1st fortnight of October. So most shipowners preferred to wait, expecting better numbers in the next period. For example, the rates for the trips from the E. Coast of S. America (ECSA) to the Far East reached up to $15-17K/day (Asia delivery), Continent to Asia at $22.5-24.5K/day (Continent delivery) and transatlantic round trips in $11-13K/day (delivery to Gibraltar).
On the other hand, in Asia and especially in the south, the week was particularly active, albeit short. Shipowners at the beginning of the week reduced their ideas in order to book some cargo. But then, with the rise of the Atlantic Basin, this region was also positively affected. Indonesia-Far East round trip rates moved to $10-12K/day (Far East delivery).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes, in Southeast Asia the market got off to a slow start due to holidays increasing capacity supply while cargo flow was low. UMXs rates for travel between S. E. Asia and the Far East went to 18.5-20K/day. Further north, in the Far East the market moved positively despite reduced activity as poor weather conditions kept many vessels off the market. UMXs rates for North Pacific (NOPAC) round trips moved to $14-15.5K/day, W. C. India round trips to $14-15.5K/day and Atlantic Basin (BH) round trips to $ 13.5-15K/day.
In the Middle East Gulf and West C. India the market saw subdued activity at the start of the week with most Asian countries out. UMXs rates for Far East trips ranged between $15-16.5K/day (from Middle’s East Gulf (MEG) – West C. India (WCI)), for short-haul trips between Middle’s East Gulf – West C. India at $12.5-14 K/day and trips to the Atlantic Basin at $ 9-10.5 K/day.
In the Atlantic Basin and especially the American Gulf showed improvements, at the beginning of the week, in terms of activity mainly for transatlantic trips. Later in the week the rates dropped as the conversation did not increase. However the cargo list gradually increased leaving a feeling for market improvement next week. UMXs rates for Transatlantic trips reached up to $20-21.5K/day and to Asia $24.5-26K/day. The ECSA region had a slow start with few vessels available and limited demand. The only support came to the market from West Africa, which was somewhat more active, while for October the signs are positive for demand. The rates of SMXs for trips to th17S. E. Asia-China moved to $23-24.5K/day and for Transatlantic trips (Mediterranean/Continent) to $17-18.5K/day.
Continent showed improvements at the end of the week as several vessels left the market changing the balance between supply and demand. UMXs rates for circular-local trips moved to $14-15.5K/day, for trips with SCRAP cargoes to the Mediterranean at $15-16.5K/day and to Asia at $19.5-21K/ day. The Mediterranean moved positively as capacity supply was limited and cargo flow was stable. This resulted in an improvement in both climate and rates. For example, it is reported that a UMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $19-20.5K/day (Canakkale delivery), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $9.5-11K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 10.5-12K/day (outside war zones).
In the Handies market, in Continent the market moved upwards with an increase in demand driven by scrap loads. Thus several vessels found some employment relatively easily, but the lack of net cargoes was evident. Rates for the largest vessels in the class, for round trips reached up to $10-11.5K/day, to the Mediterranean with scrap cargoes at $13.5-15K/day and for transatlantic vessels at $8.5-10K/day day.
The Mediterranean was broadly flat with marginal improvements on some routes. However, the attack on the cargo vessel last week led to an increase in insurance premiums. Larger vessel rates (over 36K tonnes DWT) for intra-Med trips moved to $8.5-10K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to Continent at $9-10.5K/day (delivery at Canakkale) , to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $8-9.5K/day (delivery to Canakkale) and to Asia at $13.5-15K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin, in the US Gulf the market was pressured by the increased supply of vessels after vessels moving from western Continent started to arrive. Shipowners expected an increase in activity due to the grain season, but this has not yet happened. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the class for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged between 15.5-17K/day and to Asia at $20.5-22K/day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA) continued at the same low rates as last week. However, in the middle of the week, the appearance of new cargoes stimulated demand, improving the overall sentiment, but this was not reflected in the rates. Thus, the charters of larger vessels from the ECSA area for Transatlantic trips (Continent – Mediterranean) moved to $14.5-16K/day and to Asia at $16.5-18K/day.
In Asia the market showed a better image than the Atlantic, however it only managed to maintain the same levels, both in the south and in the north. Southeast Asia saw improvements at the end of the week, while to the north there was little support from the North Pacific. Further west, in the Middle East Gulf and W. C. India, limited activity kept the negative sentiment in the market although some promising closes were heard. Far East and NOPAC round trip charters on larger vessels closed at $13.5-15K/day, from S. E. Asia to China at $10.5-12K/day and from the West C. India to China at $10-11.5K/day.

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice

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