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The current situation in Libya remains complex and challenging. Recently, tensions have escalated, undermining confidence in the country's economic and financial stability. Additionally, Libya is still recovering from the devastating impact of Storm Daniel, which struck eastern Libya in September 2023, causing significant loss of life and damage.
Politically, progress towards credible elections remains stalled due to disagreements among key political actors. The United Nations continues to mediate, urging Libyan leaders to engage in good faith negotiations to resolve outstanding political issues.
Looking ahead, the international community, including the UN Security Council, emphasizes the need for a Libyan-led, inclusive political process. The hope is that through continued mediation and cooperation, Libya can achieve political, security, and economic stability in the future.
The conflict in Libya began during the Arab Spring in 2011, when widespread protests against Muammar Gaddafi's regime erupted. Inspired by uprisings in neighboring countries like Egypt and Tunisia, Libyans took to the streets demanding democratic reforms and justice for those who had suffered under Gaddafi's rule.
The situation quickly escalated into a civil war, leading to NATO intervention and the eventual ousting and death of Gaddafi. However, the aftermath of Gaddafi's fall left a power vacuum, resulting in the proliferation of armed groups and ongoing instability. This led to a second civil war in 2014, with rival factions vying for control.
The conflict has been fueled by various factors, including regional divisions, tribal loyalties, and foreign interventions. Despite efforts to broker peace, including a UN-mediated ceasefire in 2020, Libya remains divided and unstable.

Currently, Libya is divided between two main rival administrations:

1. Government of National Unity (GNU): Based in Tripoli, the GNU is led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and is recognized and supported by various countries such as Turkey, Italy, and Qatar.

2. Government of National Stability (GNS): Based in the east, the GNS is led by Osama Hammad and is aligned with the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar. This faction receives support from countries like Russia, Egypt, the UAE, and France.

These international involvements have turned the Libyan conflict into a complex proxy war, with each country pursuing its own strategic interests, such as securing oil and construction deals or building airbases in the area.

These divisions have led to a complex and unstable political landscape, with ongoing efforts by the United Nations and other international parties to mediate and push for a unified political solution.

Recent efforts to unify the country through elections have faced significant challenges, with both sides unable to agree on a roadmap for national elections. The UN and other international actors are actively working to mediate and facilitate a resolution, but progress has been slow. Many countries in the region offer political support and have vested interests in Libya’s stability due to migration concerns.

Predicting which party will ultimately control Libya is difficult. The situation is highly fluid, and much depends on the success of ongoing diplomatic efforts and the willingness of the rival factions to compromise.

DISCLAIMER : The information contained herein is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should seek their own professional advice before making any investment decisions.